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Forecasting
the Final 2011 AP Top 25
This year's favorites to meet in the BCS National Championship game
both gird their loins in crimson and white, yet both are among the
bluest of college football's bluebloods. Oklahoma and Alabama will
almost certainly start the season #1 and #2 in the preseason AP poll,
so my painting for this article depicts the last time these 2 storied
programs met in a bowl game, the 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl. That season it
would have been more apt to call it the Crimsonbonnet bowl, though
you'll notice that Alabama wore white bonnets for that game, as they
sometimes did in those days when facing a team with like-colored
helmets. The 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl was a bit less glamorous than a
January 2012 meeting between the schools would be, Oklahoma emerging
7-4-1 and Alabama 6-5-1 after a 24-24 tie.
Of course, the
chances of Oklahoma and Alabama actually meeting for the 2011 title are
slim, as history shows. How often do the top 2 preseason teams end up
the top 2 teams at the end of the regular season? It is exceedingly
rare, and that makes mathematical sense. For example, let's say that
Oklahoma and Alabama are prohibitive
favorites to reach the title game, and that each has a 50% chance of
getting there, while no other team has more than a 10% shot. It may
seem likely that they'll meet, since their chances are at least 5 times
as great as any other team's chances, but the fact is that if each has
a 50% chance of getting there, that means there is only a 25% chance
that both will.
And I think the chances of each team getting
there are considerably less than 50%, and probably more like 25%--
still far better than any other team's chances. But that would mean
just a 6% chance of the 2 meeting for the title.
As I said last year, preseason
ratings can basically be divided into two types: power and
predictive.
A power rating orders teams by how good you think they are, and does
not take schedule into account. A predictive rating tries to guess
where teams are going to finish ranked, and therefore schedule is a
paramount consideration.
Last year I did a preseason power rating,
but this time around I'm offering up my guesstimate on where teams will
be ranked in the final AP poll for this season. The criteria I used to
forecast these teams' fortunes is the same as I outlined last year, but
of course this time I also put a great deal of emphasis on their
schedules. Then I approximated their final records and guessed where AP
poll voters would consequently rank them.
#1 Alabama
Hey, if I were
doing a power rating, I would probably rate Oklahoma #1 like everyone
else. But I had to ask myself, if Oklahoma and Alabama do
meet for the title, who do I think will win? And let's face it,
Oklahoma has lost their last 3 BCS title games, and they are 1-5 in all
BCS bowls during that time, their one win coming last year over a poor
Connecticut team. The SEC, meanwhile, has won how many BCS title games
in a row now? 5? 10? I've lost track.
Last year I had
Alabama #3, but predicted that they wouldn't finish there because of
their ridiculously difficult schedule and a drop-off in the defense.
They had lost most of their 2009 defensive starters, and while they
were still strong defensively in 2010, they dropped off 42 yards per
game, and that cost them all 3 games they lost last year. If last
year's team had the 2009 defense, they would have gone 14-0, as even
Auburn would not have been able to rally and nip them by a point.
This year they return their top 7 tacklers, and 13 of their top 14, so look for this defense to return to 2009 form.
The questions are on offense this time, due to 2 huge losses:
Julio Jones and the underrated Greg McElroy. Yeah, former Heisman
winner Mark Ingram is gone too, but come on, we all know that Trent
Richardson is better anyway, and that Ingram should not have even been
in the top 3 of the Heisman vote in 2009, let alone won it. I seriously
doubt that Alabama will miss his 875 rushing yards at all. Alabama runs
on defense, so I'm not too worried about the offense. 4 of 5 starters
return to the OL, and they have tremendous talent to choose from at QB
(including the top recruit in the nation from a couple years ago). And
all the QB has to do is not make mistakes. Playmaking not required.
The big
difference for Alabama this year is their schedule, which looks more
manageable than last year's did. It's still the SEC, so it's not an
easy schedule, and in fact I'm guessing that it's 50/50 as to whether
Alabama finishes with 1 loss or 2. Since I'm predicting a #1 ranking in
the final poll, obviously I am going with just one loss here. As to who
will beat them, I have no idea. But look at it this way-- even if
Alabama is a huge favorite in every game, let's say a 90% chance to win
each game, that means that mathematically speaking, chances are they
will end up with a loss to someone. I think their toughest game, however, will be at Mississippi State November 12.
#2 Boise State
If I think
Oklahoma will be in the title game, why do I have Boise State #2?
Obviously I think Oklahoma will lose to Alabama and drop behind Boise
State in the final poll.
Boise State was
my #1 team last year, and they came just a missed chip shot field goal
away from 12-0 and a BCS bowl bid, and this year they return 7 starters
on each side of the ball. They'll be favored in every game this year,
and I would say that it's about 50/50 whether they take 1 loss or none.
Let's say none, putting them at #2. Maybe we'll see a Fiesta Bowl
rematch of the 2006 season's classic between Boise State and Oklahoma.
Pretty much the entire season for Boise State boils down to their opener
against Georgia in Atlanta. BSU is far stronger at home than on the
road, and it is a climate that they are not at all used to, so it's a
very dangerous game for them. They opened at Georgia in 2005 and lost
48-13, but of course BSU has come a long way since then. After the
opener, their greatest threats, Air Force and Texas Christian, come to
Boise, where the Broncos have not lost in 10 years.
Kellen Moore returns for what seems like his 6th season at
quarterback, and he completed 71% of his passes last year. Also
returning are a 1260 yard rusher, most of the OL, and 12 of the top 16
tacklers from a defense that gave up just 255 yards per game last year.
Will this be the year a little big team makes the BCS National
Championship Game? Could be, but the deck is stacked against Boise
State. They need to go 12-0, and still get a lot of help from the
football gods. If a name team from a major conference has just 1 loss,
they will almost certainly go to the Big Game before an unbeaten Boise
State, fair or not. On the other hand, if Georgia has a huge season
behind their hotshot quarterback, and ends up with just 1 loss, I'd
like to think that an unbeaten Boise State would go to the BCS National
Championship Game ahead of the Bulldogs. If not, then the entire BCS
needs to be beheaded, dismembered, burned up, and its ashes scattered
to the 7 continents.
#3 Oklahoma
With 16 starters
returning from a 12-2 team, Oklahoma appears to be primed for yet
another national championship run. Their offense returns a QB who threw
for 4718 yards, a receiver who caught 131 passes for 1622 yards,
and 4 starters from the OL. This
looks like an offense that will go over the 500 yard per game mark,
juggernaut material. However, don't underestimate the loss of running
back DeMarco Murray. His 1214 rushing yards may pale next to the
passing numbers, but his 15 touchdowns will be missed. A spread offense
works far better when it has a back who can punch it in from up close
in the red zone. Otherwise, the offense may be better at putting up
huge yardage numbers than points.
Oklahoma's
"problem" has been defense, and this has been true for a few years now
(since
2007). They had a good year in 2009, but in 3 of the last 4 years the
defense has been merely above average. Now, a great offense and an
above average defense can be enough to get you into the national
championship game, but it's not usually going to win the thing.
Remember that Bob Stoops' only victory in a national championship
game, in 2000, was delivered entirely on the back of a great defense,
13-2 over Florida State.
Still, the Sooners return 8 starters and plenty of talent to the
defensive side, so a big jump there this year is entirely possible.
Like Alabama, I
expect Oklahoma to be favored in every game, but take a loss somewhere
along the line. If they disappoint and take 2, it will be because the
offense's point production lags behind its yardage, and/or because of
defensive lapses. And of course, there is always the threat of key
injuries derailing any team's season. Obviously, the Sooners cannot
afford to lose Landry Jones (knock on wood, Sooner fans). But even if
healthy and a perfect 12-0, stomping every opponent, at this point it
is hard for me to picture Bob Stoops actually winning another national
championship. I'll just choose to believe it's not going to happen
until it does.
#4 Wisconsin
When's the last
time we saw as huge a quarterback transfer as Russell Wilson to
Wisconsin? Hmm, well, I guess it was just last year. And really, we
won't know whether Wilson is going to be the next Cam Newton or the
next Jeremiah Masoli until the 2011 dust settles. Let's guess somewhere
in between.
That should be
enough to make Wisconsin a national championship contender, especially
since they don't ask the quarterback to do much more than hand the ball
off to their perpetually loaded stable of 1000 yard backs. John Clay
departs with his 1012 yards, but does it matter? They've still got
Montee Ball (996 yards, 6.1 per carry, 18 touchdowns) and James White
(1052, 6.7, 14). Last year I called for Wisconsin to post their best
offensive numbers since their 1993 Rose Bowl winning team, and they did
indeed, and in fact came just 12 yards per game away from surpassing
that '93 team.
The
loss of incredibly efficient quarterback Scott Tolzien would have meant
a drop in those numbers, but Wilson gives them the possibility of
actually improving. That's the wildcard, though, because it's a new
school, an incredibly different offense, and who can really know what
Wisconsin will get out of Wilson? I'll guess that they end up about the
same as last year, just short of the watershed 1993 offense again. But
Wilson has playmaking abilities that Tolzien didn't have, so there is
potential for him to have the kind of impact at Wisconsin that is
remembered at that school forever.
On
defense, Wisconsin looks like Oklahoma-- merely above average. However,
bear in mind that Wisconsin's ball control offense keeps their defense
off the field, while Oklahoma's hurry-up offense keeps their defense on
the field.
I'm thinking
another 2 losses for Wisconsin this year, but they're easily my
favorite to win the Big 10's first conference championship game.
#5 Virginia Tech
If I were
power-rating this team, I'd rank them about #20 at best, but Lord
a-mighty do they play a cake schedule! They open with a nonconference
slate of Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State, and
Marshall, and they don't play Florida State or North Carolina State,
the two teams I expect to be the other best teams in the ACC. Really,
Virginia Tech looks like a very vulnerable team this year, and anyone
on their schedule could conceivably beat them (remember James Madison),
but the schedule is so weak that I expect them to post double-digit
wins for the 8th year in a row despite a couple of embarrassing losses.
Last year I
called for the offense to do something it hadn't done in a decade, and
cross the fabled (in Blacksburg) 400 yard per game mark, and they
barely managed it (402). Now Tyrod Taylor and Darren Evans depart, so
say goodbye to the salad days. This team desperately needs a new
offensive coordinator, and has for years, but at this point I don't
think it's going to happen unless the team has a losing season. That's
the only way Texas fans were able to find relief from watching Greg
Davis' offenses last year.
Of course, I also said last year that
no matter who returns or stays, VT fields a sub-300 yard per game
defense every season, and boy was I wrong. They gave up 362 last year,
and 20 points per game for the first time in memory, and needless to
say, they cannot afford to do that again this season. They only return
5 starters to the defense this year, so it's the 2nd year in a row that
they lose most of their starters, and that is a big concern. I don't
know if Virginia Tech will return to their previous form on defense
next season, but their track record says yes, so I'll guess they do.
Even with the weak schedule, they won't get into the final top 10 if
the defense doesn't improve.
#6 Texas Christian
#6 for an MWC
team that's losing all but 3 starters on offense and 5 on defense? A
"little big team" simply reloading? Well, obviously the schedule plays a
big part in this forecast. I expect TCU to take a couple of losses, but
with their schedule I just can't see them taking more than 3 losses at
worst (let's say at Baylor, at Air Force, and at Boise State). The big
problem is that they open with 2 of those games, and TCU will be most
vulnerable early in the season thanks to the heavy loss of experienced
players.
TCU returns a
great group of backs, but the QB and OL are gone, so we won't see
anything like last year's 476 yard per game offense. I expect it to
plummet to average or just above. The defense loses most of its
starters, and it will also decline from the fantastic 229 yards per
game we saw last year, but it's still going to be very strong, and the
heart of this team.
If TCU goes
11-1, can they get a Sugar Bowl invite? I don't see why not. They bring
fans like a major football school, and their state has the television
sets. If TCU successfully reloads, I would love to see them face the
SEC runner up.
#7 Oregon
Oregon's
incredible offense loses most of the OL and the top 2 receivers, but
it's the system that matters here, so I expect it to remain one of the
best in the country. More concerning is the loss of most of the
defensive starters, including 5 of the front 7-- and they were just
adequate for a national championship contender last year as it was.
The wildcard
here is the gathering black cloud over this program. I don't expect
Chip Kelly to lose his job, but then 4 months ago I didn't think Jim
Tressell and Butch Davis would be fired, so who knows?
I'm thinking
that Oregon takes a loss or 2 this time around, but they're still my
(and everyone's) favorite to win the PAC 12. If they face Wisconsin in
the Rose Bowl, though, I'm thinking that's another loss.
#8 Texas
Last year I had Texas at #7, but aside from that severe overrating, I sure did nail it on them: "...it's about to get worse. This year,
Texas returns only 5 starters on offense, the fewest they've returned
since 1999, which is the last year they lost as many as 5 games.
Gone are Colt McCoy and the majority of the offensive line, and that is
going to make the recent lack of a good running back all the bigger a
problem. On top of that, they lose Jordan Shipley, who had far more
receptions and yards than the next two receivers combined. I don't see
how Texas fields a good offense this year, but the talent level is
certainly there for them to at least be average... Furthermore, if
Texas' offense proves to be not only weak, but turnover-prone, the
Longhorns could be looking at an off year much like Oklahoma had last
year. It's possible, though highly unlikely with their schedule, that
their streak of 12 straight 9-win seasons could come to an end."
Not
bad, eh? And yet here I am overrating them again, this time at #8. What
in the world am I thinking? Well, there's no question that Texas has
top 10 talent, but what I'm really banking on here is the rejuvenating
factor of Mack Brown's new, young, talented coaching staff. The team
averaged 383 yards per game offense and 301 defense last year, and that
may not be top 10 material, but those sure as heck aren't the numbers
of a 5-7 team. I'm thinking the offense and defense numbers won't
change that much, but that the win-loss record will change
dramatically-- let's say to 10-3.
#9 Notre Dame
Notre Dame did
not make my preseason top 25 last year, but I thought they'd be able to
squeak into the bottom of the final 2010 AP top 25 in Brian Kelly's
first year. They came up a game short.
But with 17
starters returning from an 8-5 team, you can bank on them making the
final top 25 this year, and looking at their schedule, I'd say it's
pretty likely that they'll be back in a BCS bowl. What will happen in that game? Well, let's take a look back at Notre Dame's entire history in BCS bowls: 41-14 loss to LSU (Sugar), 34-20 loss to Ohio State (Fiesta), 41-9 loss to Oregon State (Fiesta).
So what do you
think would happen if Notre Dame were to play, say, Boise State in the
Fiesta Bowl this season? Here's hoping, for the sake of Notre Dame
fans, that they end up in the Champs Sports Bowl.
I'll say 3 or 4 losses for Our Lady.
#10 Southern Cal
For a couple of
years, I would read all the time on fan message boards the proposition
that Lane Kiffin was riding on the coat tails of his father Monte, but
it looks to me like it's the other way around. Southern Cal lost a lot
of great players during their recent storm, but the talent was
certainly there for them to field a better defense than the
below-average unit we saw last year. Obviously this #10 ranking is
counting on big improvement there, but if Monte Kiffin has lost it, or
if his skills as a pro defensive coordinator do not translate well to
the college game, it's not going to happen. And since that appears to
be possible, this high a ranking for USC is rather iffy.
But you look at
the talent, and it's still simply blinding. The top 10 may be a stretch, but
if Lane Kiffin can't at least make the top 25 this season, he simply
can't be much of a coach-- and it'll likely be his father who's to
blame.
My guess: like Notre Dame, USC takes 3 or 4 losses. They would have been 10-3 with just an above-average defense last year.
#11 Michigan
Everyone's
liking Big 10 newbie Nebraska, but I'm picking Michigan to win whatever
division this is. Why? I dunno. Maybe just a feeling. It's not like
Brady Hoke is all that great a coach, but you don't have to be to win 9
or 10 games at Michigan (Sorry, Rich Rod, but it's true). Michigan has
the most exciting returning player that I saw last year in QB Denard
Robinson, so that's a good start. The offense needs to learn an
entirely new system, but the material is there for success anyway.
And
the defense could not possibly be worse than it has been the last few
years. I am certain of massive improvement on the defensive side this
year (and by massive, I just mean that it will at least be average this
year). But the big thing for Michigan is that they play a much easier
conference schedule than Nebraska does, plus they get the Huskers at
home, and very late in the season, when Nebraska's offense has been
completely inept in each of the last 2 years. After that, Michigan
hosts Ohio State, and my feeling is that Michigan will make up for a rough start in 2011 by winning their 2 biggest games at
the end.
#12 Nebraska
Three years ago,
Bo Pelini lifted Nebraska out of the ashes of the Bill Callahan
debacle, going 9-4 in his first season, but Nebraska has largely been
treading water ever since (10-4 each of the next 2 seasons). Another
4-loss season seems in order, though I think they have as much a shot
at 3-losses as 4. They've been fielding strong defenses and subpar
offenses, but this year there is a new offensive coordinator, promoted
from within. What the new offense will look like is a bit of a mystery,
but apparently it will be a no-huddle spread. My guess is that that
offense will work as well as last year's zone-read gimmick did--
gangbusters the first half of the season, dead in the water in the
second half. And will the defense be as strong with a no-huddle offense
putting them on the field a whole lot more often?
I was not as
impressed by Taylor Martinez as most people were (and still are).
Obviously he is very fast, and can deliver home runs out of nowhere
with his legs, but his decision-making and passing, outside of one game
against Oklahoma State, were quite awful. The company line is that
Nebraska's offense fell apart last year only because of Martinez's
ankle injury, but that does not explain the disappearance of the
offense in home games against South Dakota State (17-3 win) and 5-7
Texas (20-13 loss) before the injury. Nebraska loses by far their best
back (1245 yards), most of the OL, their big return threat, and their
terrific punter/placekicker (the new players look like huge downgrades
for the last 2 positions). So unless this year's offensive gimmick
works better-- or for longer-- than last year's, it looks like Nebraska
will depend even more on their defense than ever before.
The good news for the Huskers is that that defense looks to be quite good.
#13 Ohio State
Very hard to
predict a team like this. Maybe they'll drift into a slough of despond.
Or maybe they'll rally in an "us against the world" kind of way. Or
maybe they'll shift from one to the other over the course of the
season, or week to week. I don't know, but I do know that this team is
still loaded with talent. They play Nebraska and Michigan on the road,
so I'll call for losses there and there, and another 1 or 2 somewhere
along the line.
It's been a nice
decade for the Buckeyes, but surely even their most ardent fans didn't
think their domination of Michigan was going to last forever.
#14 Florida State
Everyone's
expecting a breakout season from Florida State after Jimbo Fisher's
10-4 debut, and all the pieces appear to be in place for an ACC title
and BCS bowl, but my gut is telling me to expect a repeat of 2010.
Still, if FSU does not go 10-4, I think they're more likely to do
better than to do worse. The schedule, at least the ACC part of it,
sure doesn't seem too challenging.
One
reservation I have with FSU is the fact that the offense declined from
421 yards per game in 2009 to 381 last year despite a returning QB, RB,
3 of 4 WRs, and an intact OL. The defense improved quite a bit in the
first year under Mark Stoops, and they may need a similar improvement
this season to better last year's 10-4 finish.
#15 Florida
Will Muschamp
walks into as nice a situation as a first-year coach could ever ask
for, with top of the charts talent already there. His offensive and
defensive coordinator hires tell us that Muschamp is going the Pete
Carroll route coaching-wise, envisioning Florida as a junior NFL team.
That worked well enough at Southern Cal, so I'm sure it can work here
as well. All it requires is bringing in some of the nation's best
recruits, and I don't see that being a problem.
But it's all new
to the kids, so we have to expect some transition here. Let's say 4
losses-- the schedule is rough, and I think they have as much chance
doing worse as they do better.
#16 West Virginia
The Dana
Holgorsen era begins this Fall, and if past performance is indicative
of future results, West Virginia's offense is about to take off. QB
Geno Smith is pretty good, and I think he'll thrive in this offense.
Good thing too,
because West Virginia loses 8 of their top 12 tacklers, and they may
need to win scoring races in quite a few games. This is another team I
see taking 3 or 4 losses. Let's say 3, with the Big East title and BCS
bowl bid that former coach Bill Stewart could not quite manage to bring
home.
#17 Arkansas
Ryan Mallet is a
huge loss, and most of the OL departs with him, so the offense will not
be as strong. But it should still be good-- a 1322 yard running back,
the 4 top receivers, and a QB who got in a decent amount of time behind
Mallet (453 yards). And the replacement OL look to be far more talented
than the guys Arkansas is usually putting up front.
Arkansas had a
decent defense last year, and with 7 starters returning, it ought to
improve on that. Strong special teams. I think Bobby Petrino has this
program fully up and running now. That won't help them against Alabama,
but I expect them to take 2nd in a very tough division. Still, the schedule and a likely tough bowl opponent put them at 9-4, a game back of last year's finish.
#18 Texas A&M
The Aggie
bandwagon is so full, there's no room for me to get on it. Mike Sherman
finally turned the corner with a 9-4 season last year, and 18 starters
return this year, so expectations in College Station are at the point
of getting out of hand.
I'm not quite
sold. The team improved last year when Ryan Tannehill was moved to QB,
but not because he was a better playmaker-- it was because he was more
efficient and less prone to turnovers. The offense put up great numbers
last year, but watching them, they looked no better than merely
competent, especially over their last 3 games. So despite returning 10
offensive starters, I suspect a drop from last year's 442 yards per
game.
The defense was just above average, and I do think we'll
see improvement there, but overall I think A&M will end up about
the same as last year. Except with an upset loss at home to Texas this
time.
#19 Stanford
Too bad about
Jim Harbaugh leaving, as he worked some real magic here. Andrew Luck
should keep them in the top 25 despite losing the bulk of his OL and
his top receivers. The defense is another concern, as half the starters
are gone, and the experience amongst the new players isn't very
impressive. But a decline to 9-4 should still keep them rated in the
final top 25. I do wonder about David Shaw's ability to keep Stanford
going post-Luck, but only time will tell that tale.
#20 Penn State
I don't see Penn
State as one of the best 25 teams in the country, and when I started
looking at the teams, I didn't think of them as a team likely to finish
in the AP top 25, but I keep hearing these rumors about Joe Paterno
retiring, and that got me thinking...
I
saw PSU as 8-4 at the end of the regular season. If Joe Paterno
announces his retirement then, effective after the bowl game, you can
bet that State College will win their bowl game and finish ranked. Bank
on it.
So
is it silly to forecast PSU at #20 based on rumors
that probably won't even come to pass? Perhaps, but Penn State fans
will be relieved to know that I had my daughter do a tarot reading for
the 2011 PSU football team, and that reading indicated that they would
make the final AP top 25. It also said that Penn State would meet its
future husband this Fall, and have 3 children with him.
#21 Pittsburgh
Last year, Pitt
had a mediocre offense and a good defense. If new head coach Todd
Graham's Tulsa teams are any indication, that is about to be reversed
(he brings his Tulsa assistants with him).
I'm not that
high on either Graham or Pitt, but when I was going through the teams
and their schedules, I came up with Pitt at 9-4 (60%) or 10-3 (40%),
and the latter, at least, would get them into the final AP top 25. The
former could too, depending on their bowl result, and because I see
West Virginia winning the Big East's BCS bid, Pitt should have a
manageable bowl opponent.
#22 Air Force
I don't see the
AP voters not ranking a 9-4 Air Force team 2 years in a row-- and I
think this year's team will make that question moot anyway, finishing
10-3. 14 returning starters is unusually high for a service academy,
and headlining them is a terrific QB. 10 of the top 13 tacklers return
on defense, and it was above average last year. This could be a special
season for Air Force, but I think they'll have to settle for
bottom of the top 25.
#23 Houston
Well, there are
always a few "little big teams" back here, and 2 CUSA teams made it
last year, so I'll take Houston as this year's token CUSA placement.
They were a huge disappointment last year (5-7), but Case Keenum is
healthy this time, and ready to give it another go. But like I said
last year, Houston has got to get hold of their ever-putrid defense, or
they'll never get anywhere. If they could just slow opponents down to
400 yards per game, and if Case Keenum stays healthy, Houston ought to
be able to get to at least 11-3, which was good enough to get CUSA teams rated
last year.
Against this schedule, Houston should be able to
easily go 13-0 heading into the bowls, but they lose to a few bad teams
every year, so I expect no different this year.
#24 Georgia
I'm not as sold
on Georgia as many others are, but I came up with 8-4 in the regular
season, leading to a likely win in a minor bowl, and that would
probably nudge them
into the final AP top 25. Great QB, but the rest of the offense around
him fails to impress (only 375 yards per game last year). The defense
was good last year, but loses some of its top players. Enough depth
returns to the defense for it to remain good, but I think they would
need to be better than good to win their division.
Count me among
those who think Richt has lost his mojo, but finishing ranked ought to
buy him at least another year. On the other hand, if he does just 1
game worse than I'm predicting, he's surely gone... and in the long
run, that might be for the best anyway.
#25 Mississippi State
I had trouble
with #25-- there are a lot of equally likely candidates, most of whom I
see finishing 9-4. But I am going with Mississippi State because I
think they have a better chance than the others of surpassing 9-4, and
also, they finished #15 last year with a 9-4 record, so even if I'm
right about them going 9-4 this year, I could be way off on how highly
they'll be ranked. I'm
a believer in Dan Mullen-- but then, who isn't after he took
Mississippi State to 9-4 in just his 2nd season? Whether MSU finishes
ranked or just outside the AP top 25 this season, there is no doubt
that Mullen has good things going on down there, and the improvement
has come equally on both sides of the ball.
The problem is that the SEC West is a pretty hellish division in which
to try to maintain success. So I have to think that the first good job
offer steals Mullen away.
Others Receiving Votes
South Carolina:
Everyone loves SC this year, but I'm seeing a repeat of last year-- win
their division, lose the SEC title game and their bowl game, finish
9-5. That got them ranked #22 last year, but Spurrier and SC had
finally won the East, which was a great story, and I think the novelty
will have lost its charm with a repeat performance, leaving them
unranked this time around. The offense finally improved to average last
year, but as I said last August, Spurrier really needs to swallow his
pride and turn the reins of the offense over to a competent
coordinator. Best I can see this season is 10-4, which would get them
ranked.
Louisiana State: Here's one where I really
depart from everyone else-- and the best bet to make me look foolish.
Really, I just have not been impressed by LSU since 2007, including
last year's 11-2 team. With 6 close wins and just 1 close loss, they
sure did look like a team that overachieved, as they could easily have
gone 7-6. Maybe new OC Steve Kragthorpe will provide the needed tonic
on offense, but it's hard for me to see their unimpressive QB,
unimpressive returning backs, and unimpressive receivers lighting up
SEC scoreboards next Fall. The defense is always good, but they lose a
great defensive back (and super returner) as well as both kickers. And
the schedule is murder. I think they lose to Oregon, at Mississippi
State, at Alabama, and to Arkansas in their finale (as usual). That's 4
losses right there, and I think they'll find another, leaving them
around 8-5 and unranked.
Utah:
I have them going 9-4, which puts them on the cusp. But they did not
finish ranked at 10-3 last year, which does not bode well. On the other
hand, they did finish ranked in the fixed poll,
so maybe that'll happen for them again. Similarly, if South Carolina
wins the Eastern division of the SEC, but finishes 9-5, they would
surely make my fixed AP poll, even if the AP voters blow them off.
Missouri:
Another 9-4 team on the cusp, and they barely look to win 9 games. The
offense is loaded except for the most vital position, quarterback. The
defense improved a bit last year, but fell apart in the second half of
the season, and now most of those starters will be gone, so Missouri
needs to rebuild there.
Oklahoma State:
With Dana Holgersen and Kendall Hunter gone, there simply has to be a
decline in the offense, but it will still be one of the best in the
country-- great QB, great WR, intact OL. The defense loses quite a lot,
especially in the front 7, but it was poor last year, so maybe that
isn't such a bad thing. This is where they badly need improvement.
North Carolina State:
And our last 9-4 team on the cusp. I see NC State as the 3rd best team
in the ACC, even with the loss of Russell Wilson. This team will be led
by their defense, which I expect to be the best they've had since the
sub-300 yards per game days in the middle of the last decade. The
offense will be average, but won't turn it over much, and that should allow
the defense to lead them to at least 9 wins.
Comments,
corrections, questions, and angry rants can be directed to this e-mail
address:
James@TipTop25.com