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2010 Preseason College Football Tip Top 25

2010 Boise State and Texas Christian #1 and #2




Last year, unbeaten Boise State met unbeaten Texas Christian in the Fiesta Bowl (depicted at left), a landmark event for BCS outsiders, or “little big teams,” as I like to call them. Could it happen again following the 2010 season, and in the same stadium? And if so, would the game take place January 1, in the Fiesta Bowl, or January 10, in the BCS Championship Game?

Sure, it’s a pipe dream. Beyond unlikely. But likely or not, Boise State and Texas Christian are my top two teams heading into the 2010 season. And consider this: two years ago, an unbeaten Boise State met Texas Christian in the Poinsettia Bowl. Then last year, an unbeaten Boise State met an unbeaten Texas Christian in a much bigger game. See a trend here? Maybe this year will be the grand climax of an unforgettable trilogy. Like Basket Case 3: the Progeny.

Methodology

Preseason ratings can basically be divided into two types: power and predictive. A power rating orders teams by how good you think they are, and does not take schedule into account. A predictive rating tries to guess where teams are going to finish ranked, and therefore schedule is a paramount consideration.

My top 25 is a power rating. I do not, in other words, believe that Boise State and Texas Christian will finish #1 and #2 in either major poll. I am in fact certain that it will not happen. But I do think, right now at least, that they are the two best teams in the country.

My guesswork here is based on pretty much the same criteria most people use for preseason rankings. I start with looking at how good each team was last year, and how many starters they return this year. That’s the foundation. I then look at:
 And now, without further ado, I give you the 2010 preseason college football Tip Top 25!

#1 Boise State

Let's say a team goes 14-0, including wins over the #6 team and over the PAC 10 champion, and then returns 20 starters and both kickers the next season. Where will that team be ranked in the preseason AP poll? #1, guaranteed. Well, unless that team does not play for a BCS conference...

Boise State went 12-1 in 2008, and only returned 11 starters going into last season. Imagine how good they'll be with twice that many starters returning from a 14-0 team. You may ask, "Do you really think they're better than Alabama and Ohio State?" As of now, yes I do. In fact, for all we know, they may have been better than Alabama last year. We'll never know, and the BCS likes it that way. It would be great to see Boise State meet Alabama and Texas Christian meet Ohio State on neutral fields to kick off the season. Then we could all know, one way or the other.

Most people who watched the Fiesta Bowl last year were not impressed with either team. But beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I guess, because I was impressed by both teams. Most impressive to me was Boise State's defense, which I had thought would be their downfall against TCU. But Boise State's defenses have been improving every year. They gave up 308 yards per game in 2008, then lost most of their defensive starters and still improved to 300 yards per game last year. This year they return practically the entire defense, so you can bet that they will field one of the best defenses in the country in 2010. And for me, that is the push that puts them over the top.

We already know their offense will be great. It always is, and this year they return both backs, their top 4 receivers, 4 offensive linemen, and above all, Kellen Moore: 64%, 3536 yards, 39 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. That TD-INT ratio is simply nuts.

Much like last year, Boise State's toughest game comes in their season opener, this time against Virginia Tech. And this one will be even tougher than last year because it is a road game, and BSU is historically far better at home than on the road. But what makes this game most dangerous is the fact that it is the opener, when teams tend to be less than sharp. Boise State's sloppiest game last year came in their opener against Oregon (who was even sloppier), and Virginia Tech is exactly the kind of team that can feast off of the sloppiness of a superior opponent. So Boise State could be taken out of the race right out of the gate.

Interestingly, 3 of the last 6 BCS champions beat Virginia Tech in early nonconference games: Alabama last year and Southern Cal in 2004 in season opening games, and LSU in 2007 in game 2. If Boise State makes it 4 of 7 this year, maybe we'll see top teams clamoring to open up against Virginia Tech in 2011. The Hokies could make a mint auctioning their opening game to the highest bidder.

Last year, after Boise State beat Oregon, we could pretty much pencil them in at 13-0 due to their weak schedule. This year's schedule isn't much tougher overall, but they do have two more potential upset threats on the schedule after their opener. The first is Oregon State, whom Boise State hosts in their 3rd game. I have Oregon State in my top 25, so obviously I think they are good. But I think Boise State is far better, and playing at home, the upset potential is low here. The more dangerous threat will probably be Boise State's trip to Nevada November 26th. They had trouble with Nevada last year, winning 44-33 at home, and Nevada returns 9 starters to an offense that averaged 506 yards per game, 345 rushing.

The ultimate question is, if Boise State does go 12-0, what are their chances of getting into the BCS Championship Game? None if Alabama and Ohio State go unbeaten. And I doubt that they would even beat out a 12-1 Alabama team. So the Broncos will need some help to get into the big show. But they will no doubt be starting this season off in the AP poll's top 5, so if they beat Virginia Tech September 6th, get ready to listen to every broadcaster, writer, and fan talk about and debate Boise State's national championship chances for the rest of the season. It would then be up to Nevada to shock the world and shut everyone up.

#2 Texas Christian

Boise State and Texas Christian are by far the strongest-looking "little big teams" that I have ever seen entering a season. It is simply amazing that we have two such teams in the same year. TCU's numbers last year, 457 yards per game offense and 240 yards per game defense, are national championship caliber numbers, better than Boise State's on both counts. And they return 16 starters and both kickers. The offense is nearly intact, but the defense loses its 2 best players. Not much to worry about, though, because they return 13 of their top 16 tacklers.

TCU's schedule is even easier than Boise State's. They host Oregon State in their opener, but I don't see the Beavers proving much threat in the heat and humidity of Texas at that time of year. Brigham Young is rebuilding, also comes to Fort Worth, and TCU destroyed them in Provo last year. So the only real threat I anticipate for TCU is their trip to Utah November 6th. Utah must replace 7 defensive starters, but their experience and talent level amongst the new potential starters are surprisingly strong. Playing at home, they have a shot at the upset. But barring that miracle, TCU will be 12-0 again this season.

That leads us to the same ultimate question Boise State faces. Can a 12-0 TCU team get into the BCS Championship Game? It will be significantly harder for the Horned Frogs. For one thing, they have to worry about Boise State, who will start the season ranked higher, and who plays an attention-getting game against Virginia Tech in their opener. TCU, on the other hand, does not play any team that will get anyone's attention. So TCU fans need to root for Virginia Tech to knock Boise State out of the way September 6th. I also think that TCU is more vulnerable to being passed up by, say, a surprise unbeaten Wisconsin or Iowa team than Boise State is. So TCU needs a lot of help to get into the big show. I do think TCU might well be the best team in the country this year, but alas, that is simply not enough in college football's sad excuse for a championship system.

And then there's the ultimate ultimate question: Can Boise State and Texas Christian meet in the BCS Championship Game? Obviously that would be one of the most amazing events in college football history, the sort of thing people still talk about 20, 30, 50 years from now. And if both teams keep winning this season, talk of the possibility will grow and grow. But even if Boise State and Texas Christian are the two best teams in the nation, and both go unbeaten, the chances of both getting into the BCS Championship Game are incredibly low. Looking at recent history, the best they can hope for is what happened in 2007, the "year of the upset." They could beat out a 2-loss SEC team. But even in that scenario, could they beat out an 11-1 Ohio State team?

Unfortunately, I doubt it. Look at what happened in the final AP poll last year, when Ohio State, losers to an unranked team and to the #22 team, were nevertheless ridiculously ranked higher than Texas Christian.

The fact is, most people would not want to see a Boise State-Texas Christian title game, because with their weak schedules, we couldn't know how good they really are. We would be left forever wondering if they really could have handled a top team from a top conference. Still, come bowl time we might see Boise State and Texas Christian play in the same stadium they played in last year. It's just that it might be TCU playing a Big 12 team in the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State playing in the national championship game 9 days later.

#3 Alabama

Alabama will likely be the AP poll's preseason #1 team, due to being the defending (mythical) national champion and returning the bulk of their offense. And offense is mostly what people look at, even with a team like Alabama, whose success rested so heavily on a great defense. But no one seems to notice or care that Alabama's defense is losing 9 starters and 13 of its top 16 tacklers! Now, I know that Nick Saban is a defensive genius, and that Alabama is loaded with top-notch talent 2-deep. That's why I have them #3. But come on, this is a total house-cleaning on defense.

As for ranking them behind Texas Christian, well, I have an admission to make. I watched both Alabama and TCU several times last year, and until the Fiesta Bowl, I actually thought that TCU was at least as good as Alabama, if not better. And anyone who thinks it isn't possible that TCU could have beaten Alabama last year obviously didn't watch any of TCU's last 7 regular season games. This year, TCU returns 13 of their top 16 tacklers, and Alabama loses 13 of their top 16 tacklers. If these teams met on a neutral field in game one, I believe that TCU would win in a rout. On the other hand, if the two teams were to meet in the BCS Championship Game, Alabama's new starters would have a whole season under their belts, and then we would have a great game. But as of now, I would still take TCU by 3 to 7 in a title game matchup.

The problem is, Alabama's schedule is going to make it very difficult for them to get into the BCS Championship Game, especially since they would likely have to play Florida twice to do it. I see at least 6 legitimate threats before the SEC title game, and half of the Tide's opponents get an extra week to prepare this year. In fact, with Alabama's schedule, they'll be lucky just to finish in the AP poll's top five. But on the plus side, they can take a loss with this schedule and still easily get into the big show. My guess, however, is that they will not play their bowl game in Arizona.

#4 Florida

Florida's losses are as severe as Alabama's, and perhaps moreso with the departure of Tim Tebow. However, I expect Florida's offense to again post better numbers than Alabama's, with highly talented (and decently experienced) new quarterback John Brantley having a great year. The latest beneficiary of a great system. Similar to Alabama, Florida is losing most of their defensive starters, and 8 of their top 14 tacklers. Alabama and Florida look to be pretty much equal to me, but I'm rating Alabama higher to start since they beat the Gators last year.

Florida also plays in the tough SEC, of course, but their schedule looks easier to me than Alabama's does, and for that reason I think the Gators have a better chance at winning a mythical national championship in 2010 than Alabama does. I will not be surprised at all if Florida loses at Alabama October 2nd, then wins out and finishes #1. And that, of course, would make five straight for the SEC.

The wildcard, of course, is the degree of commitment and involvement Urban Meyer will have with the team as the season progresses. If he suffers a relapse of symptoms, he may have to pull back, or retire (again) altogether. How the team would respond is a mystery.

#5 Ohio State

Ohio State was strong over their last 5 games in 2009, and they return 15 starters, so expectations are high. They will likely be #2 in the preseason AP poll. Their defense was in the Alabama and Florida range last year, while their offense was average at best. The prevailing theory is that with 9 offensive starters back, the Buckeye offense is going to have a breakout year, but I am not so sure. I certainly don't believe that it will be as good as Alabama's or Florida's. But it should be plenty good enough to win the Big 10.

I don't expect Ohio State to go unbeaten, but because of where they are likely to be ranked in the preseason, they can take a loss and still get into the BCS Championship Game. But the chances of that happening diminish greatly if Boise State goes unbeaten.

#6 Nebraska

Like Ohio State, Nebraska finished strong last year and returns 15 starters. They are likely to start in the bottom half of the AP top 10. The offense was rendered inept last year due to injuries (on top of the back-up quarterback and running back departing before the season started). But their starting quarterback had his throwing arm surgically repaired in the off-season, his back-up is no longer a true freshman, and a third quarterback joins the mix as reputedly the fastest player on the team. With far greater depth and experience across the board this year, expect to see massive improvement in the offense. Of course, "massive improvement" for Nebraska just means fielding an average offense, so it isn't saying much.

The defense loses its top 3 tacklers and 5 of its top 7, including superstar Ndamukong Suh. Yet Bo Pelini has boasted that this year's defense will be "five times better." I don't think that's statistically possible, but I do think the Nebraska defense will actually be stronger this season, and a contender for the nation's #1 defense. The guy replacing Suh was the #1 rated DT prospect coming out of high school, and DTs always put up big numbers in Pelini's defenses (Glenn Dorsey's numbers at LSU weren't far behind Suh's). I think Nebraska has the deepest and best secondary in the country (Phil Steele rates them #2 behind Texas), which matters a lot in this defense, because Nebraska frequently puts 5 to 7 defensive backs on the field. This has proven to be the antidote to the spread offense. Of course, now that Nebraska is set to join the Big 10, they may have to start recruiting linebackers again. But they can worry about that in 2011.

So where can we expect Nebraska to finish with an average offense and a superior defense? About where Ohio State finished last year with an average offense and a superior defense. But because they play in the easier division, Nebraska is my pick to win the Big 12.

#7 Texas

Last season, Texas was returning 9 offensive starters, yet they inexplicably gained 56 fewer yards per game. And it's about to get worse. This year, Texas returns only 5 starters on offense, the fewest they've returned since 1999, which is the last year they lost as many as 5 games. Gone are Colt McCoy and the majority of the offensive line, and that is going to make the recent lack of a good running back all the bigger a problem. On top of that, they lose Jordan Shipley, who had far more receptions and yards than the next two receivers combined. I don't see how Texas fields a good offense this year, but the talent level is certainly there for them to at least be average.

The good news is the defense. Similar to Nebraska, they lose their best player and 4 of their top 5 tacklers, but 7 starters return, and their secondary is among the best in the country.

I don't see much difference between Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma, which is why I have them grouped together here. But I'm rating Nebraska higher than Texas because they came 1 second away from beating the Longhorns last year, and their offense is looking at a big improvement while Texas' offense is looking at a big decline. Furthermore, if Texas' offense proves to be not only weak, but turnover-prone, the Longhorns could be looking at an off year much like Oklahoma had last year. It's possible, though highly unlikely with their schedule, that their streak of 12 straight 9-win seasons could come to an end. But after some early problems, I expect Texas to have a strong second half of the season. Just not strong enough to include a Big 12 title game win.

#8 Oklahoma

Oklahoma may have finished 8-5 and unranked last year, but statistically they were close to 13-1 Texas with 424 yards per game offense and 273 defense. So what happened? Injuries and a series of very close road losses to good teams. This year the bulk of the offense returns, so it should be better than Texas and Nebraska's offenses. The defense loses 6 starters, but the top 2 tacklers return, and I don't think it will be too far behind the defenses of Texas and Nebraska. And 2 excellent kickers return.

I rate the Sooners behind Texas because the Longhorns have beaten them two years in a row now, and 4 of the last 5 years, so it looks like Mack Brown turned the corner on Bob Stoops 5 years ago. Might as well stick with the trend. But my feeling is that Oklahoma is going to beat Texas this year, and they are my pick to win their division.

#9 Wisconsin

For almost the entire season last year, Wisconsin did not look at all like a top 25 team. They lost easily to the only 2 rated opponents they played in the regular season, were upset by unrated Northwestern, and edged another 5 unrated opponents by a touchdown or less. Then they suddenly woke up in their bowl game and defeated a rated opponent (Miami 20-14), finishing 10-3 and rated #16. I would say they overachieved. And with 16 starters back this year, look for them to overachieve again.

Their 417 yards per game offense was the best mark for Wisconsin in over 10 years. This year the offensive line returns intact, and John Clay behind it, as well as the quarterback and top receiver, so I expect this to be the best Badger offense since their 1993 Rose Bowl team. They host Ohio State this year, so that will give the fans Rose Bowl fever through the first 6 games, but Wisconsin's standard operating procedure against top Big 10 opponents is to flop on the ground like a sick dog, so I don't expect anything different this year. Wisconsin's best bet, then, is to win the rest of their games and hope someone else beats Ohio State to hand them a share of the conference title.

Standing in the way of that plan is a road trip to Iowa the week after the Ohio State game. Iowa beat Wisconsin last year, and looks to be about as good as Wisconsin this year, so the site makes this a tough game to win for Wisconsin, even (or especially?) if they do upset Ohio State the week before.

But Wisconsin does not play Penn State this year, so their usual slate of nonconference cupcakes and mediocre (at best) conference opponents should net them another 10 wins. At the very best, they can put together another season like 2006, when they flopped on the ground like a sick dog against Michigan, didn't have to play Ohio State, beat one good team and a bunch of losers, and finished 12-1 with a Capital One Bowl victory.

#10 Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech loses 7 starters on defense and 9 of their top 13 tacklers, as well as both kickers. But VT always has a good defense and special teams, so it's hard to worry about it. They've given up less than 300 yards per game for 6 years in a row now, despite losing most of their starters going into 3 of those seasons (and in all 3 they actually improved over the previous season).

Where VT has been lacking over the last 6 years is offense, failing to average 400 yards per game in each of those seasons. But that's a streak you can expect to be broken. Eight starters return, including the quarterback, a pair of 1000-yard rushers, the top 3 receivers, and most of the offensive line.

The Coastal division of the ACC looks like a very tough four team race to me, those teams being Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. Any of the four could emerge as the winner. I do think VT is the best of the group, but not by much, and they play 2 of the other 3 teams on the road, and all 3 in consecutive weeks in November (the opposite of last year's schedule, when VT could snooze through their last 4 games). As per usual, the ACC will be a fun race to watch. Or at least the Coastal division will be. But even if VT gets upset out of the race, they should still end up with double-digit wins for-- get this-- the seventh season in a row. Remember when such a thought was laughable?

#11 Iowa

Iowa went 11-2 last year with a great defense carrying a bad offense. Well, with 8 starters returning on defense and most of the offensive line graduating, I expect 2010 to be more or less the same. But this year they play all 3 of their toughest conference opponents (Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State) at home, so hopes are understandably high in Hawkeye land. They only just barely lost to Ohio State in Columbus last year. But they also barely escaped against a bunch of bad teams, and if the offense doesn't see significant improvement, I think they'll take a couple of upsets in 2010.

#12 Penn State

Penn State's offense will have a new quarterback this year, but he's talented and can run, and he's surrounded by a solid cast of 8 returning starters, including 4 offensive linemen. The defense returns only 5 starters, but they returned only 4 last year and actually improved to 274 yards per game, and Penn State has been putting strong defenses on the field for 6 straight years now regardless of personnel turnover.

Unfortunately, all 3 of Penn State's toughest opponents are road games (Alabama, Iowa, and Ohio State). Iowa appears to be the most winnable game of the three, but Penn State lost to Iowa at home 21-10 last year, so I'm not favoring them to beat the Hawkeyes this year. On the bright side, PSU's other 9 games look almost impossible to lose, so unless they fall asleep at the wheel, the worst I can see them doing this season is 9-3.

#13 Utah

Utah only plays one team that's in my preseason top 25, TCU, so you can expect them to pile up the wins again. But are they good? Probably.

After some rebuilding last year, 8 starters return on offense this year, so I'm looking for them to push back over the 400 yards per game mark. On the other side, Utah loses 7 defensive starters, but as I said earlier, they have a surprisingly strong amount of experience and talent with which to replace those players. I would not be surprised to see the defense improve, as it was a bit of a disappointment last year. They also return 2 strong kickers.

Utah hosts TCU this year, giving them a chance, but the Frogs are going to be very tough to beat. I'm thinking Utah loses that game and takes another upset or two, then wins their bowl game to finish 11-2 or 10-3. But look out for 2011, when Utah returns most of their starters and TCU graduates most of theirs. Or maybe Utah will be in the PAC 10 by then, making the matter moot.

#14 West Virginia

The Bill Stewart era has thus far produced a pair of 9-4 seasons, which isn't bad, but it's a step or two down from the He Who Shall Not Be Named era. If they're ever going to break back into the big time, this would be the year to do it, as they are returning 16 starters. But this team's fortunes are fragile, depending almost entirely on the health of quarterback Geno Smith, who fell off the map after a midseason concussion last year. My guess is that you will not see him running the ball much.

None of West Virginia's opponents are in my preseason top 25, but that doesn't mean the Mountaineers are headed for 12-0. They'll find a way to lose a couple of games. And anyway, I'm bound to be wrong about a couple of their opponents (LSU, South Florida, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Rutgers are all capable of finishing in the AP top 25). They're my favorite to win the Big East, let's say finishing 10-2 with a loss at LSU, but I think another 9-4 finish is likelier than 12-0.

#15 Oregon

Alas, poor Oregon. Until Jeremiah Masoli lost his mind, they were the iron-clad frontrunner of the very deep and difficult PAC 10. Now they are just the bronze-clad frontrunner. They still return 17 starters, including the star running back and an intact offensive line. In fact, they still look much better overall than they did heading into last season. It's quite possible that they could end up in the final AP top 10. It all depends on what happens at quarterback, and we won't know what will happen there until we see it happen. I am guessing that we see enough quarterback problems to result in a 3rd straight 10-3 season. But it could have been so much more.

#16 Miami-Florida

Here I have 3 ACC Coastal division teams ranked in a row, because I see little difference amongst them, and I think any one of them could knock off Virginia Tech for the division title. Miami went 3-1 against a very difficult opening gauntlet last year, and returned to the final AP top 25 after 3 years of wandering in the wilderness. 13 returning starters are enough to keep them in the top 25, but I don't see them becoming the Miami worldbeaters of old. Jacory Harris threw for a lot of yards, but also a lot of interceptions. The running game was weak, and only 2 offensive linemen return.

Moreover, they play a very difficult nonconference schedule again, on top of playing in the tougher division of the ACC. If things don't go as well as last year, they may end up 8-5, making it very difficult for them to finish in the AP top 25 (though not in the fixed AP poll, which doesn't punish teams for playing tough schedules). But if the rebuilt offensive line comes through and Harris cuts down on the interceptions, they do host 2 of their 3 divisional threats, and they can win the division whether they do well in their nonconference games or not.

#17 Georgia Tech

The defending ACC champion returns 14 starters, but the offensive losses are rough. They lose 3 starters from the offensive line, their best running back, and most crucially in my opinion, Demaryius Thomas at receiver (1154 yards, double what the rest of the team tallied combined!). Thomas was the only threat at receiver, and his presence had a huge positive impact on the offense that will not be replaced.

Miami manhandled them last year, so I'm favoring the 'Canes again this year, and GT plays Virginia Tech (as well as North Carolina) on the road, so I don't see the Yellow Jackets repeating as ACC champs (or Coastal division champs). But their unique triple option offense will always be a difficult wildcard in any game they play.Tech has finished with a winning season 13 years in a row, and I don't see that streak ending as long as Paul Johnson is the coach.

#18 North Carolina

With a huge 19 starters and both kickers returning from a second straight 8-5 season, will this be North Carolina's breakout year under Butch Davis? Maybe, but the schedule is rough enough to put them back at 8-5 again. On the other hand, their divisional schedule gives them 2 of their 3 threats at home, and well spaced out from each other, so this looks like their best bet yet to win the division, and I think they're legitimate contenders.

The defense, one of the best in the country, returns nearly intact. Unfortunately, so does their putrid offense (308 yards per game). With 10 starters back, it has to improve, if only because it could not get worse. Whether this is a breakout year or not, I'm guessing UNC nets at least one more win, and 9-4 would push them close to the final AP top 25, if not in it.

#19 Oregon State

Oregon State's chances of making the final AP top 25 are quite dim, as they are playing both TCU and Boise State on the road, and the PAC 10 is so competitive that it will be very difficult for any team but Oregon to do better than 5-3 in league play. In other words, Oregon State could field a very good team and still only finish 7-5. The real danger here is that big losses early to BSU and TCU could lead to the Beavers getting down on themselves, and going into a tailspin of mediocrity. If only they were playing Penn State's schedule...

On the sunny side, they return 15 starters from a team that played for a Rose Bowl berth in their finale, and only lost 37-33. They lose their quarterback, which is a big ouchie, but the offense and defense both look to remain above average at worst. With their schedule, however, 7-5 would be a big success, even if no one sees it that way.

#20 Southern Cal

Let's face it, no one knows what's going to happen with Southern Cal this year. Throw out the returning starter numbers and other stats. All we know is that they have more talent than anyone else in the league, a new coach who was underwhelming in his one season at Tennessee, and a giant black cloud hovering over the program. Maybe they'll go 7-6, as Tennessee did. Maybe they'll rally together and go 10-3 or better. More likely somewhere in between, of course. They have a very favorable schedule, including their lightest nonconference slate in years. The extra game against Hawaii should mean an extra win, which gives them an edge for hanging on to a final AP top 25 slot even if things don't go very well this year. After all, things did not go very well last year, and they still hung on to a spot in the final top 25. But a bowl win got them in, and they will not have that opportunity this year.

#21 Houston

Houston started 2009 with big wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, then squandered away a chance at the AP top 25 with even bigger losses (58-41 to UTEP, 37-32 to UCF, 38-32 to East Carolina for the CUSA title, and 47-20 to Air Force in their bowl game). Sure, they had a crazy-good offense (563 yards per game), but they were more than a little hampered by a crazy-bad defense (451 yards per game).

The offense mostly returns, dreaming of NCAA records falling left and right. As for the defense, who cares whether anyone returns or not? The important thing is that Kevin Sumlin has imported a new defensive coordinator from the NFL. How much of an effect he'll have, I can't say. The talent level of potential defensive starters is extremely poor. But any positive effect at all will be welcome, and should be enough to get the Cougars into the final AP top 25.

#22 Texas Tech

Tommy Tuberville lost his job at Auburn because he failed miserably in an attempt to build a spread offense. Now he inherits one of the best spread offenses in the country. Can he keep it running properly? You'll have to ask the offensive coordinator, who was hired from Troy... same school Tuberville got his Auburn OC from... you know, the one who failed miserably. I don't expect this offense to put up the numbers we saw under Leach, but it will still be good. For a while, at least. But Tuberville is a better defensive coach than Leach (or his coordinators), so maybe things will balance out, and Tech can keep chugging along with its typical 8 and 9 win seasons.

#23 Missouri

Last year was a rebuilding year for Missouri, with only 9 starters returning, and they fell to 8-5 and out of the top 25. This year they return 16 starters and are looking to jump back into the pool. Their Bill Snyderish nonconference lineup and weak division opponents should guarantee a top 25 finish. I'm thinking 8-4 is the very worst they could do. With apologies to Kansas State, I see Missouri as Nebraska's only real contender for the divisional title, but the Tigers play Nebraska on the road, leaving their chances slim.

#24 South Carolina

To be honest, every other year I think South Carolina is going to have a breakout season, and it never happens. Seems like they have been stuck in a 7-6 type rut forever. So what makes this season any different? Maybe nothing. Again. We shall see.

South Carolina's problem, of course, has been the offense. Steve Spurrier is still a good head coach, but he might just be the worst offensive coordinator in the country. And good luck getting him to fire himself.

The reason for optimism? The SEC does not appear, to me at least, to be quite as deeply strong as usual. The Gamecocks host key games (Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas), while taking a couple of their conference road trips to teams they should be able to beat anywhere (Kentucky, Vanderbilt). They return 16 starters, and their defense is always strong. With 9 starters back on offense, they should be able to at least reach the fabled heights of average. And if incoming superstar running back recruit Marcus Lattimore (#1 RB recruit in nation) pans out, South Carolina will have something they haven't had in forever: a viable running game.

Can they win their division? I doubt it, but that sure would be fun, wouldn't it? I think I'll call for a milder "breakout" than that, something more like 9 wins. No need to be greedy.

#25 Arizona

And the final slot goes to Arizona, the 2009 PAC 10 runner-up, last seen getting slapped around 33-0 by Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. 8 starters return to the offense, and it could be the best Mike Stoops has fielded yet, though that isn't saying much. It'll be above average. The defense is more of a concern, as it loses 7 starters, the top 4 tacklers, and defensive coordinator Mark Stoops (gone to Florida State). But the talent level available for replacing the lost starters is incredibly high. I think Arizona will improve on their 8-5 record this year.

Also Receiving Votes

Washington: Jumped from 0 to 5 wins in Sarkisian's first year, returns 18 starters and a top-notch quarterback.

Florida State: Has the potential for a huge season, but I've been thinking that for years, so I'll wait for them to prove their potential. They should easily win their division in the ACC, though, which makes them a top contender for the ACC title and a BCS bowl. I predict a top 25 finish.

Arkansas: 17 starters and the star quarterback return from an 8-5 team. Should be a top 25 finish.

Auburn: 15 starters return from an 8-5 team. Getting into the top 25 may depend on the success of their incoming superstar JC quarterback.

Notre Dame: Despite all the talk of slow players we've been hearing for years, Notre Dame has the talent to succeed, and Brian Kelly is the man who can put them back into the top 25. The only question is whether he can do it in season one or not. I'll say he does it.

Georgia: 15 starters return from an 8-5 team, but the defense was hit hard by graduation and is a concern. Like Auburn, Georgia's success depends on a highly touted quarterback... but a redshirt freshman.

Cincinnati: Well, they went 12-1 last year, so we can't just forget them entirely. But with Brian Kelly gone, I'm not expecting much.

Stanford: Harbaugh's rebuilding job here has been twice as fast as Mike Stoops' at Arizona. Gerhart's gone, but 15 starters return, so I'll say they get another 8 or 9 wins this year.

California: Like Stanford, they went 8-5 last year and return most of their starters. But their defensive losses are heavy, and they were weak there last year as it was, so it looks like another season outside the top 25.

Comments, corrections, questions, and angry rants can be directed to this e-mail address:   James@TipTop25.com

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