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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2022 Season

January 2, 2023

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Georgia and #3 Texas Christian, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With a week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Georgia 14-0 Defeated #4 Ohio State 42-41
2) Michigan  13-1 Lost to #3 TCU 51-45
3) Texas Christian 13-1 Defeated #2 Michigan 51-45
4) Ohio State 11-2 Lost to #1 Georgia 42-41
5) Alabama 11-2 Defeated #11 KSU 45-20
6) Tennessee 11-2 Defeated #10 Clemson 31-14
7) Utah 10-4 Lost to #9 Penn State 35-21
8) Southern Cal 11-3 Lost to #14 Tulane 46-45
9) Penn State  11-2 Defeated #7 Utah 35-21
10) Clemson 11-3
 Lost to #6 Tennessee 31-14
11) Kansas State 10-4 Lost to #5 Alabama 45-20
12) Washington 11-2 Defeated #21 Texas 27-20
13) Florida State 10-3 Defeated 6-7 Oklahoma 35-32
14) Tulane 12-2 Defeated #8 USC 46-45
15) Oregon 10-3 Defeated 9-5 North Carolina 28-27
16) Louisiana State 10-4 Defeated 8-6 Purdue 63-7
17) Oregon State 10-3 Defeated 6-7 Florida 30-3
18) UCLA 9-4 Lost to 9-4 Pitt 37-35
19) Notre Dame 9-4
 Defeated #20 South Carolina 45-38
20) South Carolina 8-5
 Lost to #19 Notre Dame 45-38
21) Texas 8-5 Lost to #12 Washington 27-20
22) Texas-San Antonio 11-3 Lost to #23 Troy 18-12
23) Troy 12-2
 Defeated #22 UTSA 18-12
24) Mississippi State 9-4 Defeated 8-5 Illinois 19-10
25) North Carolina State 8-5
 Lost to 8-5 Maryland 16-12

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

North Carolina 9-5 Lost to #15 Oregon 28-27
Central Florida 9-5 Lost to 9-4 Duke 30-13
Cincinnati 9-4 Lost to 8-5 Louisville 24-7
Mississippi 8-5
 Lost to 8-5 Texas Tech 42-25
Fresno State 10-4 Defeated 7-6 Washington State 29-6
Purdue 8-6 Lost to #16 LSU 63-7
South Alabama 10-3 Lost to 9-5 Western Kentucky 44-23
Illinois 8-5 Lost to #24 Mississippi State 19-10
Boise State 10-4 Defeated 7-7 North Texas 35-32
Pittsburgh 9-4 Defeated #18 UCLA 37-35
Minnesota 9-4
 Defeated 7-6 Syracuse 28-20
James Madison 8-3
 Did not play

Tennessee > Alabama

I covered this issue in my comments on the last December AP poll. 11-2 Tennessee (#6) beat 11-2 Alabama (#5) this season, and they should therefore be rated higher. As I wrote in December, "Yes, Tennessee was upset 63-38 by #20 South Carolina, but Alabama was upset as well, by #16 LSU -- a team Tennessee beat 40-13. There is no good reason for Alabama to be rated higher than the Vols."

Ohio State vs. Alabama and Tennessee

I think that Ohio State will be rated higher than Alabama and Tennessee in the final AP poll, but AP poll voters have a bad habit of dropping playoff losers behind teams that didn't even make the playoffs, so I will go ahead and discuss Ohio State vs. Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama and Tennessee have each taken an upset loss to a much lower ranked team, while Ohio State has lost only to #1 Georgia and #2 Michigan. All 11 of Ohio State's wins have come by more than a touchdown, while Tennessee and Alabama have each posted 3 close wins (2 each against unranked opponents!). And Ohio State lost a razor-close game to Georgia, who beat Tennessee by 2 touchdowns (and Tennessee beat Alabama). This should not even be a debate.

Penn State

11-2 Penn State took both of their losses to top 4 teams, while, again, 11-2 Alabama and 11-2 Tennessee have each taken an upset loss to a much lower ranked team, and I think that Penn State should therefore be rated higher than Alabama and Tennessee. Penn State's lower rating was fine before their bowl game, as they had not beaten a rated or even nearly rated opponent, but now they've spanked #7 Utah in the Rose Bowl. I'll look at this issue more closely when I'm fixing the final AP poll, but if I were rating these teams myself, I would definitely rate PSU higher.

Utah, Tulane, and Southern Cal

In the final AP poll, I suspect that 10-4 Utah will be rated higher than 12-2 Tulane, who will be rated higher than 11-3 Southern Cal, and that order doesn't work well in terms of logic. First of all, if Utah is ranked ahead of Southern Cal, they have a huge 3 upset losses and no upset wins, and that is awkward. I think those 3 upset losses outweigh the 2 wins Utah posted against Southern Cal, and I would rate USC ahead of Utah myself. However, as I wrote previously on this topic, I think you can make a case for Utah to be rated higher, though I consider that case to be an iffy stretch. The problem is, if you rate Utah ahead of USC, then USC has no upset losses, while Tulane has taken 2 upset losses (both to unranked teams!), and those 2 losses outweigh Tulane's 1 win over USC, especially considering how that win came by a mere 1 point.

Your logic is much stronger if you rate these teams in this order: Tulane > USC > Utah. Or this: Tulane > Utah > USC. Or this: Utah > USC > Tulane. I think that all of these combinations are more logically sound than the above.

Notre Dame > Clemson > Florida State

I've been complaining about this issue for weeks. Reiterating what I've written before, Notre Dame may be 9-4 and Clemson 11-3, but don't be fooled by those straight records-- Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Clemson. The Irish beat Clemson 35-14, very decisive. The bowl games have further reinforced my position on this issue, as Notre Dame defeated South Carolina in the Gator Bowl, and Clemson lost to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Notre Dame does have 2 upset losses to unranked opponents, but Clemson has an upset loss as well, so the head-to-head win for Notre Dame leaves both teams with the same relevant record. The head-to-head tiebreaker goes to Notre Dame.

Clemson, of course, defeated 10-3 Florida State this season, and they should remain ranked ahead of the Seminoles. So both teams should be dropped back behind Notre Dame.

Oregon State > Oregon

This is another issue I've addressed more than once. As I argued previously, these teams have the same record (10-3), and Oregon State defeated Oregon 38-34 in their regular season finale. The Beavers deserve to be rated higher (The College Football Playoff rankings got this one right). The bowl games reinforced this position too, since Oregon State stomped on an unrated opponent in their bowl game, while Oregon barely edged an unrated opponent 28-27 in their bowl game. Due to those scores, it is possible that the AP Poll will reverse themselves and get this one right in the final poll. If not, I'll just fix it when I fix the final AP poll.

I should also note that Oregon State and Oregon both have better relevant records than do Clemson, Florida State, and Louisiana State, and they should be ranked ahead of those teams. And they really belong right behind Utah and Southern Cal, as there is very little real difference between the 4 teams power-wise, if any at all.

Troy

I've been saying for weeks that 12-2 Troy should be rated back behind 8-5 Mississippi, who beat Troy 28-10 this season, but now that Ole Miss has taken another upset loss, this time to 8-5 Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl, I think you can make a case for rating Troy higher (though I would still rank Troy behind Ole Miss myself, well out of the top 25). However, 12-2 Troy will still be overrated in the final AP poll, as we're still talking about a team that has taken 2 losses to unrated teams, and who has beaten nothing but a bunch of other minor conference teams. And Troy has not performed well either -- they have posted 6 close wins (touchdown or less), 5 of them over teams that will definitely not be ranked in the final poll.

Troy's best win came 18-12 in the Cure Bowl over Texas-San Antonio, and the best ranking I can see for Troy would be just ahead of UTSA, and just behind 8-5 Texas, who beat UTSA by the far more impressive score of 41-20. Like Troy, Texas took 2 upset losses to unranked teams, but unlike Troy, Texas has beaten a higher-ranked team (#11 Kansas State). Texas has also performed far better than Troy has, posting only 1 close win over an unranked opponent, and coming within a touchdown of 3 opponents who will finish ranked in the top 10 (Alabama, TCU, and Washington).

Texas-San Antonio

Previously I've indicated that Texas-San Antonio should not be ranked in a top 25, and though I would still not rank UTSA in a top 25 myself, I do think that at this point there has been enough carnage amongst all the teams vying for a top 25 slot that UTSA might be a viable candidate for the bottom of the top 25 after all. Key bowl losses by North Carolina State, Mississippi, and Kentucky, all to teams that were not even close to ranked, have left us with few good contenders for the bottom slots of the top 25.

North Carolina > Pittsburgh and Duke

I believe that 9-4 Pittsburgh will find themselves ranked in the final AP poll due to that 9-4 record and their big Sun Bowl victory over #18 UCLA (9-4). However, Pitt has taken 3 "upset" losses to unranked teams, which greatly outweigh that one big win, and the Panthers should not be ranked. More to the point, Pitt should not be ranked higher than 9-5 North Carolina, who beat Pitt 42-24 and thereby won the Coastal Division of the ACC over Pitt. The only reason NC has one more loss than Pitt is because they won the division and had to play an extra game against Clemson, a team Pitt did not play. And even Pitt's one big win, by 2 points over UCLA in the Sun Bowl, is not necessarily a better result than NC's 1 point loss to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl, given that Oregon beat UCLA by 15 points this season.

Duke

I think that 9-4 Duke will fall just outside the final AP poll top 25, but I should point out that Duke is in the same boat as Pitt when it comes to North Carolina, as Duke also played in the Coastal Division, and also lost to North Carolina this season. Duke's case is even weaker than Pitt's, as they don't have a big win like Pitt's over UCLA, and they lost to Pitt this season. So North Carolina > Pitt > Duke.

Minnesota

Minnesota is another 9-4 team that I think will find itself ranked in the final AP poll due largely to that 9-4 record (I also think Midwestern poll voters will want to get a 4th Big 10 team in there). However, Minnesota's case is weaker than 9-4 Pitt's, or even 9-4 Duke's, and the Gophers should definitely not be ranked. Like Pitt, they have taken 3 losses to unranked teams, but unlike Pitt, they have not beaten a team that is ranked (or even close to ranked). In fact, Minnesota has only played one rated team all year, getting trounced by Penn State.

Minnesota's losses to unranked teams came to 8-6 Purdue, 8-5 Illinois, and 8-5 Iowa, and frankly, Minnesota should be ranked behind all 3 of those teams. They're all in the same division of the Big 10, and Purdue won the division with a 6-3 record in league play, while Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota all went 5-4. Minnesota loses the head-to-head tiebreaker to both Illinois and Iowa.

So you see, Minnesota should not even be close to the top 25.

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