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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 4, 2022

1) Georgia 13-0
2) Michigan 13-0
3) Texas Christian 12-1
4) Ohio State 11-1
5) Alabama 10-2
6) Tennessee 10-2
7) Utah 10-3
8) Southern Cal 11-2
9) Penn State 10-2
10) Clemson 11-2
11) Kansas State 10-3
12) Washington 10-2
13) Florida State 9-3
14) Tulane 11-2
15) Oregon 9-3
16) Louisiana State 9-4
17) Oregon State 9-3
18) UCLA 9-3
19) Notre Dame 8-4
20) South Carolina 8-4
21) Texas 8-4
22) Texas San Antonio 11-2
23) Troy 11-2
24) Mississippi State 8-4
25) North Carolina State 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
North Carolina 9-4
Central Florida 9-4
Cincinnati 9-3
Mississippi 8-4
Fresno State 9-4
Purdue 8-5
South Alabama 10-2
Illinois 8-4
Boise State 9-4
Pittsburgh 8-4
Minnesota 8-4
James Madison 8-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, I think that 10-3 Utah is overrated at #7, given that all 3 of their losses have come to lower-ranked teams, and I think that 10-2 Penn State is underrated at #9, given that they have taken no upset losses at all. However, these 2 teams are set to play each other in the Rose Bowl, so this issue looks like it will at least partially sort itself out.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

Last week I had thought that the AP poll and the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings were roughly equal, but this week I think that the CFP rankings have pulled ahead and are a bit better than the AP poll's rankings. The CFP rankings correctly place 9-3 Oregon State ahead of 9-3 Oregon (OSU beat them this year), and I think the CFP was right to rank Tulane, Troy, and Texas-San Antonio lower than the AP poll does (though I think that Troy and UTSA should not be rated at all).

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will not be fully commenting on the playoff committee's top 25s.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

Ohio State and Texas Christian

11-1 Ohio State (#4) took their one loss to #2 Michigan, while 12-1 Texas Christian (#3) took theirs to a lower-ranked team, #11 Kansas State. And all 11 of OSU's wins have come by more than a touchdown, while TCU has posted 5 close wins, 4 of them over teams that are neither ranked nor close to ranked. Ohio State should definitely be rated higher.

I have trouble seeing why TCU should even be rated higher than Tennessee and Alabama (as well as Penn State). But this issue may sort itself out, because if TCU loses to #2 Michigan in the playoffs, and if Alabama and Tennessee win their bowl games, then TCU will likely drop behind those teams in the final rankings anyway.

Tennessee > Alabama

As I wrote on this issue last week: 10-2 Tennessee (#6) beat 10-2 Alabama (#5) this season, and they should therefore be rated higher. Yes, Tennessee was upset 63-38 by #20 South Carolina, but Alabama was upset as well, by #16 LSU -- a team Tennessee beat 40-13. There is no good reason for Alabama to be rated higher than the Vols. It is very disappointing that even the CFP committee, which does a better job accounting for head-to-head results than the AP poll does, got this one wrong.

Penn State

Also covered last week, 10-2 Penn State (#9) has taken no upset losses at all, and should probably be rated higher than both Tennessee and Alabama. On the other hand, PSU hasn't beaten a rated team, so maybe the poll voters are on to something here.

Utah and Southern Cal

10-3 Utah seems highly overrated at #7, as they have taken 3 losses to lower-rated teams. Without a win over a higher-rated team, that is just too many. I think they should be rated behind 11-2 Southern Cal (#8). Yes, Utah beat USC twice, but that is of course just 2 games, which is outweighed by Utah's 3 losses (again, all to lower-rated teams). And ranked behind USC, Utah would have 2 wins over a higher-ranked team, better balancing out their 3 upset losses.

On the other hand, one of Utah's upset losses came in their opener, giving it less weight (it was also very close and on the road, at 6-6 Florida), and one of their wins over USC came in the PAC 12 title game, giving it extra weight (it was also a big 23 point win). So I think Utah can be rated higher than USC. But if you make that choice, then I think these teams ought to be rated lower than they are. 10-2 Penn State (#9) has taken no upset losses, 3 fewer than Utah, and that is a rather big difference. But again, Utah and Penn State will settle this much of the issue when they face off in the Rose Bowl.

Washington and the PAC 12

With 2 upset losses, one of them to an unranked team, 10-2 Washington (#12) is another PAC 12 team that seems a bit overrated. There are 6 ranked PAC 12 teams, and it is hard to separate any one of them from the next, as there isn't a clear difference in power level between any of them. Those teams are #7 Utah, #8 USC, #12 Washington, #15 Oregon, #17 Oregon State, and #18 UCLA. I'm thinking that the 3 teams that have a bit of separation from this "PAC," Utah, USC, and Washington, should all be dropped back closer to the pack.

But more than that, I think that there is a glaring head-to-head issue that needs to be fixed here:

Oregon State > Oregon

Also covered last week, these teams are both 9-3, and Oregon State defeated Oregon 38-34 in their regular season finale. They deserve to be rated higher (The College Football Playoff rankings got this one right).

Notre Dame > Clemson

Another one I covered last week. I'll just reiterate what I wrote there: #19 Notre Dame may be 8-4 and #10 Clemson 11-2, but don't be fooled by those straight records -- Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Clemson. The Irish beat Clemson 35-14, very decisive, and 2 of Dame's losses came to #8 USC and #4 Ohio State. Because those teams are ranked higher than Clemson, and because Clemson has not themselves defeated (or played) comparably ranked teams, those games should be irrelevant when comparing Notre Dame to Clemson. And if you ignore those games, Notre Dame is effectively a 2-loss team, just like Clemson, and the head-to-head result should be heeded.

Straight records just don't mean much when teams play very different schedules. Notre Dame and Clemson have the same relevant record, and that's what matters.

Florida State

It should also be noted that 9-3 Florida State is ranked #13, and Clemson has beaten them this year, so if you drop Clemson behind Notre Dame, where they belong, then FSU needs to be dropped as well, behind Clemson. I should also note that although FSU defeated 9-4 Louisiana State (#16) this year, because FSU has taken 2 upset losses to unranked teams, and because LSU has a big upset win over #5 Alabama, LSU has a better relevant record than FSU does, and I think they should therefore be rated higher than FSU.

Tulane

11-2 Tulane (#14) is ranked higher than 9-3 Oregon State, 9-3 Oregon, and 9-3 UCLA, but they have taken 2 upset losses to unranked teams, so they have a worse relevant record than do any of those PAC 12 teams. I don't see a good reason for Tulane to be ranked higher than any of them. Of course, if they beat Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl, then they will have earned a higher rating than these other PAC 12 teams.

Texas San Antonio

As I wrote last week, 11-2 Texas San Antonio (#22) is by far the worst inclusion in the top 25. They have not beaten a ranked or nearly-ranked team, or any halfway decent opponent at all, and they lost to unranked 7-5 Houston. And their performance has been lousy, as they have 5 times won close games over weak-ass teams. Any voter putting this team in their top 25 should not be voting at all.

Troy and Mississippi

11-2 Troy is similarly overrated at #23, but this is a simple head-to-head issue, because Troy has already been beaten 28-10 by 8-4 Mississippi (just outside the AP poll's top 25 at #29), and they should definitely be rated behind Ole Miss. This case is clearer, I think, than the UTSA issue covered above, so needless to say, any voter who has Troy rated higher than Ole Miss should also not be voting at all.

North Carolina State

8-4 North Carolina State (#25) has taken 3 losses to teams that are neither ranked nor close to ranked, and the Wolfpack should therefore not be rated at all. I don't think that AP poll voters were thinking at all when it came to the bottom of their lists.

Kentucky, Florida, and Washington State

As I said last week, here is a group of teams that might be better inclusions in a top 25 than some of the above teams. 7-5 Kentucky and 6-6 Florida have, put together, defeated 3 currently rated teams. 7-5 Washington State has not beaten a rated team, or even nearly rated, but all 5 of their losses have come to teams ranked in the top 17, and they have a better relevant record than every team currently ranked #19-25.

2022 TipTop 25

My little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, was retired for the season before Thanksgiving. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.

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