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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2011 Season

January 4, 2012 Updated January 9

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the BCS National Championship game, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. Most teams have now finished their seasons, and with 4 days to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at the contenders and get it right. To help in that regard, I will offer plenty of advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Louisiana State 13-0	TBD (vs #2 Alabama)
2) Alabama 11-1	TBD (vs #1 LSU)
3) Oklahoma State 12-1	Beat #4 Stanford 33-30 OT
4) Stanford 11-2	Lost to #3 OSU 33-30 OT
5) Southern Cal 10-2	No Bowl
6) Oregon 12-2	Beat #9 Wisconsin 45-38
7) Arkansas 10-2	Beat #11 KSU 29-16
8) Boise State 12-1	Beat 6-7 Arizona State 56-24
9) Wisconsin 11-3	Lost to #6 Oregon 45-38
10) South Carolina 11-2	Beat #21 Nebraska 30-13
11) Kansas State 10-2	Lost to #7 Arkansas 29-16
12) Michigan State 11-3	Beat #18 Georgia 33-30 OT
13) Michigan 11-2	Beat #17 Virginia Tech 23-20 OT
14) Clemson 10-3	Lost to #23 West Virginia 70-33
15) Baylor 10-3	Beat 7-6 Washington 67-56
16) Texas Christian 11-2	Beat 8-5 Louisiana Tech 31-24
17) Virginia Tech 11-3	Lost to #13 Michigan 23-20 OT
18) Georgia 10-4	Lost to #12 MSU 33-30 OT
19) Oklahoma 10-3	Beat 7-6 Iowa 31-14
20) Houston 13-1	Beat #24 PSU 30-14
21) Nebraska 9-4	Lost to #10 South Carolina 30-13
22) Southern Miss 12-2	Beat 7-6 Nevada 24-17
23) West Virginia 9-3	Beat #14 Clemson 70-33
24) Penn State 9-4	Lost to #20 Houston 30-14
25) Florida State 9-4	Beat 8-5 Notre Dame 18-14

Others Receiving Votes

Notre Dame 8-5	Lost to #25 FSU 18-14
Cincinnati 10-3	Beat 6-7 Vanderbilt 31-24
Arkansas State 10-2	Lost to 11-3 Northern Illinois 38-20
Brigham Young 10-3	Beat 8-5 Tulsa 24-21
Georgia Tech 8-5	Lost to 8-5 Utah 30-27 OT
Northern Illinois 10-3	Beat 10-3 Arkansas State 38-20
Virginia 8-5	Lost to 8-5 Auburn 43-24
Missouri 8-5	Beat 7-6 North Carolina 41-24
Tulsa 8-5	Lost to 10-3 BYU 24-21
Louisville 7-6	Lost to 8-5 North Carolina State 31-24

Stanford

I've been complaining about Oregon's ranking for weeks, but as I suspected would happen, it looks like this problem will take care of itself. Based on past voting history, PAC 12 champion Oregon will rise past Southern Cal and Stanford in the final poll, where they belonged in the first place. Yes, USC beat Oregon, but USC also lost to Arizona State and Stanford, both of whom Oregon defeated.

But now we have a new potential problem, because past voting history also suggests that Stanford will drop behind Southern Cal in the final poll, and that should not happen. Stanford lost the Fiesta Bowl in overtime to the #3 team, who is obviously ranked higher than both Stanford and USC. That result should not drop them behind USC, whom they have already beaten, and who did not even play a bowl game. It would be wholly illogical.

If Stanford does drop behind USC, rest assured that I will be here to restore justice and logic to the proceedings when I fix the final poll next week. But let's hope the voters wise up and finally get this sort of thing right so I don't have to fix it.

Kansas State

I was saying last week that Kansas State should not drop behind Baylor if they lose to Arkansas, since they already defeated Baylor, but I have looked at this situation more closely, and actually, Baylor being rated ahead of Kansas State is a legitimate option, and is in fact probably the best choice. This is not based on the bowl results, however, so anyone who rates Baylor ahead of Kansas State in the final poll should have already done so before the bowls. Of course, for most voters, if not all of them, this will not be the case.

Baylor's 67-56 win in their home state over a 7-6 team is not a better result than KSU's 29-16 loss to 11-2 Arkansas, so moving Baylor ahead of KSU based on those results is irrational, but that is what we are about to see happen.

I will not be fixing it when I repair the final poll, though, because KSU barely beat Baylor at home (36-35), Baylor performed much better than KSU on the season as a whole, and Baylor was much stronger down the stretch (winning their last 6).

Wisconsin

There are no such good reasons to drop Wisconsin behind Michigan State, however, so I hope voters avoid this temptation. Big 10 champion Wisconsin lost a good, close game to #6 Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and that result should not drop them behind Michigan State, who needed overtime to beat the #18 team. Wisconsin was rated 3 spots ahead of MSU heading into the bowls, and the teams' bowl results should not drop Wisconsin behind MSU. But this one could be even worse, because it is possible that the voters could drop Wisconsin back behind Michigan as well (Michigan needed overtime to beat the #17 team).

Wisconsin > Michigan State > Michigan. Period. Let us hope that voters do not overemphasize who won and lost their bowl games, or straight records, with no regard to opponents played. But all too often, that is exactly what they do.

ACC Teams and West Virginia

All of the currently ranked ACC teams are overrated, and will no doubt be overrated in the final poll. West Virginia will probably shoot up the ratings after their 70-33 annihilation of Clemson, as a bowl result like that often makes it difficult for writers to see anything else that team did, but the Mountaineers will no doubt be overrated as well.

West Virginia took 2 losses to teams with losing records, and they had 4 close wins (touchdown or less) over unranked opponents. Their bowl game is the only time they've performed like that all season, and Clemson was overrated in the first place. Clemson also took 2 losses to unrated teams, by 14 and 24 points, and they struggled to get by Wofford and Wake Forest. Clemson did rout Virginia Tech twice, but VT did not beat a single ranked opponent, and also struggled to beat unranked teams (4 close wins).

Then there is 9-4 Florida State, yet another team that took 2 losses to unranked opponents.

Who is more deserving than these teams, you ask? Well, let me tell you...

Georgia and Nebraska

#18 Georgia and #21 Nebraska both lost their bowl games, and both have 4 losses, but both have better relevant records than the above teams. Georgia took no upset losses, which makes them effectively 2 games better than West Virginia and Clemson. Nebraska took 1 upset loss, but they also defeated #12 Michigan State, who is rated higher than both WV and Clemson, so the Huskers are effectively 2 games better than WV and Clemson as well.

9-4 Florida State, because they won their bowl game (though over an unranked team), is poised to pass up Georgia and Nebraska in the final poll. But Florida State has 2 upset losses to unranked teams, and they have no win against a rated opponent. They too are effectively 2 games back of Georgia and Nebraska, and should not be rated ahead of either team.

Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M

8-5 Missouri, 8-5 Texas, and 7-6 Texas A&M are nowhere near rated, but they should be. The Big 12 finished 33-5 against nonconference opponents, which will put them #1 this season in nonconference winning percentage. Not only that, but 33-5 is one of the best records any conference has had since World War 2. As a group, Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M have 1 upset loss (Missouri to Arizona State) and 1 upset win (A&M over Baylor), and therefore they all have better relevant records than Clemson, Florida State, and West Virginia.

They have so many losses because they played in the Big 12, and all played each other.

Just Say No

There are 3 teams sitting just outside the current top 25 that could sneak in to the final poll next week: 10-3 Cincinnati, 10-3 Brigham Young, and the winner of the upcoming game between 10-2 Arkansas State and 10-3 Northern Illinois. However, none of these teams should even be considered for the final top 25.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati will almost certainly finish in the final top 25, but they shouldn't-- this is another team with 2 losses to unranked opponents, no win over a rated team, and repeated close wins over unrated teams, including a 31-24 bowl win over 6-7 Vanderbilt.

Brigham Young

BYU lost to 8-5 Texas and 8-5 Utah, and should not be ranked higher than either team. BYU's 10 wins carry little value, the highlight being a 24-21 bowl win over 8-5 Tulsa, and they struggled to beat 3 other unrated opponents as well. They are not close to deserving a top 25 slot. Utah beat them 54-10-- how can writers still have any question as to who is better? Utah just played in a major conference, leading to an 8-5 record, and BYU played a bunch of non-major knuckleheads, leading to a meaningless 10-3 record.

Northern Illinois

11-3 Northern Illinois has no legitimate argument at all for being ranked. They lost to awful Kansas and to Central Michigan, and of course beat no one of value, including their bowl win over Sun Belt champion Arkansas State. Their games against unrated opponents included wins by 1, 3, 3, 6, and 3 points, and those results all came in their last 6 regular season games. Any voters putting this team on their ballots should be relieved of their duties.

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