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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 4, 2011

1) Louisiana State 13-0
2) Alabama 11-1
3) Oklahoma State 11-1
4) Stanford 11-1
5) Southern Cal 10-2
6) Oregon 11-2
7) Arkansas 10-2
8) Boise State 11-1
9) Wisconsin 11-2
10) South Carolina 10-2
11) Kansas State 10-2
12) Michigan State 10-3
13) Michigan 10-2
14) Clemson 10-3
15) Baylor 9-3
16) Texas Christian 10-2
17) Virginia Tech 11-2
18) Georgia 10-3
19) Oklahoma 9-3
20) Houston 12-1
21) Nebraska 9-3
22) Southern Miss 11-2
23) West Virginia 9-3
24) Penn State 9-3
25) Florida State 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
Notre Dame 8-4
Cincinnati 9-3
Arkansas State 10-2
Brigham Young 9-3
Georgia Tech 8-4
Northern Illinois 10-3
Missouri 7-5
Virginia 8-4
Tulsa 8-4
Louisville 7-5

As I said in my comments on last week's AP college football poll, I will not be fixing the AP poll until after the final edition is released in January. In the meantime, I will just be commenting on some of the poll's more dubious ranking choices.

With games still to be played, some of these dubious choices will sort themselves out, one way or the other. For example, last week I pointed out that 10-2 South Carolina beat 10-2 Georgia head-to-head, and should be ranked higher, but that a Georgia loss in the SEC title game would send Georgia back behind SC anyway, and that is exactly what happened. Similarly, some of the issues I go over below will be sorted out by the bowl results. Some, unfortunately, will not. But before I get to problems with the latest AP poll rankings, let me address the big controversy over the BCS #2 team...

Oklahoma State vs. Alabama

I think either of these teams is a valid option for #2. If I were an AP poll voter, I would rate Alabama #2 myself, so obviously I have no qualms with the AP poll doing so. However, if I were a voter in the Harris or coaches' polls, I would vote Oklahoma State #2. Why? Because Harris and coaches' poll voters are really serving as members of the BCS selection committee. At #1 and #2, I do not believe that their job is to rate the two best teams-- it is to select the 2 most deserving teams to play in college football's stupid 2-team playoff.

You can argue about Oklahoma State's tougher schedule, Alabama's better performance, Oklahoma State's better wins, and Alabama's better loss, but there is one fact that should be overriding here, making all the other arguments moot-- Alabama had their chance at LSU, and lost. Oklahoma State should get that chance now.

Instead, what we have this season is an entirely closed system, where no one except SEC teams are allowed to even get a shot at the national championship. Had Oklahoma beaten Oklahoma State yesterday, then the rematch would be fine, as there would be no other viable choice (Stanford should be rated behind Oregon, as covered below). But that is not the case. 11-1 Oklahoma State is the champion of this year's best conference to this point-- the Big 12 is 27-3 against nonconference opponents (.900), the SEC 42-6 (.875). And 50% of the Big 12's opponents qualified for bowls, compared to 33% for the SEC.

The BCS has screwed up again. There is plenty of debate to be had about whether Oklahoma State or Alabama is the second best team of the season thus far, but there is no good reason for Alabama to be playing a mulligan against LSU for the national championship rather than Oklahoma State. It is bad for college football.

And don't even get me started on Virginia Tech's ridiculous invite to the Sugar Bowl. In my opinion, that is the worst selection the BCS has ever made. The BCS is ruining college football.

Oregon

As I said last week, Oregon should be rated ahead of Stanford. However, AP voters have gone a step further and also moved Southern Cal ahead of Oregon this week, so that the PAC 12 champion is now rated by the AP poll as 3rd best in the conference. These teams beat each other in a circle, Oregon over Stanford by 23, USC over Oregon by 3, and Stanford over USC in overtime. You will notice that Oregon's win was by far the best of the 3. Oregon's other loss came to #1 LSU, and is thus irrelevant when comparing these 3 teams. Southern Cal's second loss, on the other hand, came to unrated 6-6 Arizona State. Oregon beat both teams that USC lost to, so rating USC ahead of Oregon is completely ridiculous.

Then there is performance. Oregon's 11 wins were all routs-- closest anyone came to them was 14 points. But Stanford beat unrated Cal by only 3, and USC beat 2 unrated teams by a touchdown or less. Oregon should be rated ahead of both, and this "debate" is not even close.

Clemson

10-3 Clemson is vastly overrated at #14, and their 2 big wins, both over #17 Virginia Tech (11-2), are not so great as they would seem, because VT is overrated as well.

Clemson has 2 losses to unrated opponents, by scores of 31-17 and 37-13, and they lost to #10 South Carolina 34-13, indicating that they are not close to #10 in ability. And all of those poor results occurred in the last 5 weeks of the regular season. All they have to say for themselves are those two big wins over 11-2 Virginia Tech-- but those 2 games are the only ones VT even played against top 25 opponents! VT also barely got by 4 unrated opponents this season, and are 11-2 solely because they played a remarkably weak schedule.

Several teams behind Clemson have had better seasons-- 9-3 Baylor, 10-2 Texas Christian, 10-3 Georgia, 9-3 Oklahoma, and 9-3 Nebraska all have either 1 upset loss or none. Clemson, again, has 2.

Clemson's Orange Bowl opponent is another overrated team, #23 West Virginia (9-3), who also has 2 losses to unrated teams (I'll cover the Mountaineers next). Funny thing is, if Clemson wins their bowl game, and South Carolina loses to Nebraska in theirs, the AP poll will undoubtedly move Clemson ahead of SC in the final poll, which would be an absolute farce. Worry not, though, because I'll be here to fix it if that happens. But I'm sure I'll be demoting the winner of the Overrated Bowl... er, Orange Bowl... regardless of who wins.

West Virginia

As I said last week, no Big East team deserves to be ranked at all. West Virginia, again, has lost to 2 unrated teams, they've beaten no rated ones, and their performance has been weak as well (barely getting by unrated opponents in each of their last 3 games). WV will get a chance to prove their worthiness against overrated Clemson in the Orange Bowl, but as I indicated, even if they win, I suspect that I will be moving them downward in the fixed AP poll.

9-3 Cincinnati, who lost to WV and to 2 unrated opponents, is also knocking on the door at #27, and with a relatively easy bowl opponent (Vanderbilt), their chances of finishing in the final AP poll are rather high. On the other hand, Cincinnati was trounced by Tennessee, whom Vanderbilt defeated, so maybe I won't have to worry about tossing Cinci out of the final AP top 25 when I fix it come January.

Florida State

8-4 Florida State lost at home to 8-4 Virginia on November 19th, so why should FSU be rated at #25 rather than the Cavaliers? Of course, I don't see why either should be rated over Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M...

Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M

What I said last week still applies-- the Big 12 is the toughest conference, and these 3 teams, as a group, have just 1 loss to an unrated team (Arizona State), and 1 win over a rated one (Baylor). That's better than several currently rated teams.

The Big 12, as I said last week, tends to choke in bowl games, so maybe these teams will yet prove themselves unworthy, but if the Big 12 plays their bowl games like they did their regular season games, all 3 of these teams are candidates for getting into the final fixed AP top 25. Take Texas A&M, who has an ugly 6-6 record. They lost to #3 Oklahoma State by 1 point, to #7 Arkansas by 4, and to #11 Kansas State in overtime. The hard-luck team of the year, A&M is 1-5 in close games this season. But their 6-6 record is more the product of a hellish schedule than poor performance.

Auburn

7-5 Auburn has been unimpressive performance-wise, but they have no upset losses-- all 5 of their losses are to currently ranked teams-- and they beat #14 South Carolina on the road 16-13. They deserve consideration for the final top 25 should they beat Virginia in their bowl game.

Arkansas State, Northern Illinois, and Brigham Young

10-2 Arkansas State, 10-3 Northern Illinois, and 9-3 Brigham Young are all sitting just outside the top 25, so a bowl win could get any of them in-- but none of these teams has any valid argument for being ranked. They have no wins of any value, and lost to the only decent teams they played. Hopefully, AP voters will come to their senses here, and I won't have to bother tossing these teams out when I fix the final AP poll.

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