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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 27, 2011

1) Louisiana State 12-0
2) Alabama 11-1
3) Oklahoma State 10-1
4) Stanford 11-1
5) Virginia Tech 11-1
6) Arkansas 10-2
7) Houston 12-0
8) Oregon 10-2
9) Southern Cal 10-2
Boise State 10-1
11) Michigan State 10-2
12) Georgia 10-2
13) Oklahoma 9-2
14) South Carolina 10-2
15) Wisconsin 10-2
16) Kansas State 9-2
17) Michigan 10-2
18) Texas Christian 9-2
19) Baylor 8-3
20) Nebraska 9-3
21) Clemson 9-3
22) West Virginia 8-3
23) Penn State 9-3
24) Southern Miss 10-2
25) Florida State 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
Notre Dame 8-4
Texas 7-4
Cincinnati 8-3
Arkansas State 9-2
Georgia Tech 8-4
Missouri 7-5
Brigham Young 8-3
Virginia 8-4
Tulsa 8-4
Louisville 7-5
Northern Illinois 9-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, currently 10-2 South Carolina is #14, while 10-2 Georgia is #12, despite the fact that South Carolina defeated Georgia 45-42 in Athens. But this will sort itself out one way or the other. If Georgia loses the SEC title game, they will fall back behind SC. And if they win, then the writers were right all along, and Georgia belongs ranked ahead of SC. Similarly, several questionable rankings will sort themselves out by the time the bowls have all been played.

However, though I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Oregon and Stanford

There is simply no doubt that #8 Oregon (10-2) should be rated ahead of #4 Stanford (11-1). Oregon has an extra loss because they played #1 LSU, but they should not be punished for that. Stanford played no such opponent, so that loss is irrelevant when comparing these teams, and they should each be seen as effectively having the same record (1 loss). And Oregon won 53-30 at Stanford, a decisive 23-point beating.

Yes, Stanford beat Southern Cal in overtime, and USC beat Oregon by 3, but neither of those wins was nearly as convincing as Oregon's over Stanford, and the head-to-head result between Oregon and Stanford overrides the USC results anyway-- it is the tie-breaker between 2 teams with effectively the same record.

Furthermore, all 10 of Oregon's wins were by more than a touchdown (the closest anyone got was 15 points), whereas Stanford only beat unrated Cal by 3 at home. That's a rivalry game, sure, but then so is Oregon-Oregon State, and Oregon destroyed OSU.

Perhaps this problem will be sorted out by the bowl games, but if not-- if, for example, Oregon and Stanford both win out-- then this will certainly be an error I will be fixing in the final AP poll.

Virginia Tech

As I predicted before the season even started, Virginia Tech (11-1) has ridden an incredibly weak schedule to a ridiculously high rating. They have played exactly 1 rated opponent, losing that game 23-3 at home to #21 Clemson. They have had 4 close wins over unrated opponents, and quite frankly do not (yet) belong in the top ten. Perhaps they will earn such a rating in their bowl game, but if they simply beat Clemson in the ACC title game, then beat the Big East champ in their bowl, then this team could end up uncomfortably close to #1 in the final poll, possibly without beating a single opponent who's rated in the final poll!

Where should they be rated? I don't know, but nowhere near as high as #5. Maybe they are the #10 team. Maybe #15. Or #20. But even #25 or #30 is possible given their awful schedule. We just don't know. I'm hoping the bowls give us a better idea, but as indicated, it's possible that the bowls will tell us very little. My guess is that VT is a #15-25 team.

As one example, let's compare the Hokies to #9 Boise State, who beat them last year, by the way. Both have 1 upset loss, BSU by 1 point and VT by 20. Boise State beat #12 Georgia 35-21, and VT has not beaten a rated opponent at all. Boise State's 10 wins are all by more than a touchdown, but VT, again, has had 4 close wins over unrated opponents. This is not close at all. There is simply no rationale whatsoever for VT being rated ahead of Boise State.

Of course, the ACC in general is rather poor this year.

Baylor and Texas Christian

#19 Baylor beat #18 Texas Christian 50-48, and should be rated higher. Furthermore, I think this remains true even if Texas beats Baylor next week (in that case, both should drop behind Texas).

Now, Baylor's win came at home, and was nowhere near decisive, and was in the home opener, giving it much less emphasis than late season games, but nothing has happened that ought to override it. Baylor is 8-3 and TCU is 9-2, but Baylor plays in the Big 12, which at 27-3 against non-conference opponents, is the toughest conference in the country to this point. TCU plays in the MWC, and that is simply no comparison to the Big 12.

TCU has the huge win over Boise State, but Baylor has their own upset win, over Oklahoma. Both TCU and Baylor have 1 upset loss, TCU to SMU and Baylor to Texas A&M.

The Big 12 has historically been a poor bowl performer, and if they choke in this year's bowls again, that may give reason for TCU to be ranked higher than Baylor, but as of now there is no good reason for it.

West Virginia

#22 West Virginia (8-3) is the token Big East representative in the AP poll, but no Big East team deserves to be ranked at all. WV has lost to 2 unrated teams, they've beaten no rated ones, and their performance has been weak too (barely getting by unrated opponents in each of their last 2 games).

West Virginia may yet earn this rating by winning the Big East, then winning a BCS bowl, which is entirely possible if they draw the ACC champion as an opponent.

Southern Miss

For the second year in a row, we could see 2 CUSA teams make the final top 25. But while unbeaten Houston (#7) deserves to be rated, #24 Southern Miss (10-2), with losses to Marshall and UAB, is a rather dubious selection.

This case will sort itself out next week: if USM loses to Houston, they will fall out of the rankings anyway, and if they win, well, then the writers were correct all along. However, if USM loses the CUSA title game, then wins their bowl game over some no-value opponent, and finds a place in the final AP poll at 11-3, I may just have to toss them out again when I fix it.

Florida State

Fully fevered by Lastgamitis, AP voters put 8-4 Florida State at #25, ahead of 8-4 Virginia, who just beat FSU on the road 8 days ago. Surely nothing is so thin as a sportswriter's memory. I think the sportswriters are probably correct that FSU is a better team, and maybe the bowl results will show this to be the case, but as of now, these teams have comparable records and Virginia won head-to-head.

Better Top 25 Candidates

So I've just listed several teams that I don't think should be rated. Who should be rated in their place? The games yet to be played will be vital in figuring this out, but here are some candidates.

Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M

Missouri is 7-5, Texas 7-4, and Texas A&M 6-6, which is why these teams are not rated, but bear in mind that the Big 12 is, to this point, the nation's toughest conference top-to-bottom. Their straight records look weak because this league has been beating each other up. Texas still has a game against Baylor, and of course if they win, they'll move into the top 25, but even if they lose and end up 7-5, they deserve consideration. Combined, and not counting their games against each other, these 3 teams have just one loss to an unrated opponent (Missouri at Arizona State early)-- all of the rest of their losses are to currently rated teams. And they have a win over a rated opponent (Texas A&M over Baylor 55-28). So as a group, they are far more deserving than West Virginia and Southern Miss, both of whom have 2 losses to unrated opponents and no wins over rated teams.

The Big 12, as stated earlier, tends to choke in bowl games, so maybe these teams will yet prove themselves unworthy, but if the Big 12 plays their bowl games like they did their regular season games, all 3 of these teams are candidates for getting into the final fixed AP top 25. Take Texas A&M, who has that ugly 6-6 record. They lost to #3 Oklahoma State by 1 point, to #6 Arkansas by 4, and to #16 Kansas State in overtime. The hard-luck team of the year, A&M is 1-5 in close games this season. But their 6-6 record is more the product of a hellish schedule than poor performance. If Southern Miss is better, well, I'd like to see them at least prove it. Perhaps the bowls will give them that chance.

Notre Dame

8-4 Notre Dame is sitting at #26, so they will surely finish ranked if they win their bowl game. They have not been particularly impressive, but they do have just 1 upset loss, in their opener, and they beat #11 Michigan State 31-13.

Auburn

7-5 Auburn has been as unimpressive as Notre Dame, but they have no upset losses-- all 5 of their losses are to currently ranked teams-- and they beat #14 South Carolina on the road 16-13.

Arkansas State

Finally, a word of warning to all voters concerning 9-2 Arkansas State, currently sitting dangerously close to the top 25 at #29: do not rate this team. They have beaten absolutely no one, and it does not appear as though they will play anyone in their bowl game either, leaving them with no argument for a top 25 slot. They have played just 2 competent opponents, losing to Virginia Tech 26-7 and to 6-6 Illinois 33-15. They are therefore effectively 0-2. Why would you rate an 0-2 team?

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