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Ranking the top 25 Teams for the 2010 Season

January 4, 2011 (Updated 1-8-2011)

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the BCS National Championship game, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. Most teams have now finished their seasons, and with 6 days to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at the contenders and get it right. To help in that regard, I will offer plenty of advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Auburn 13-0	TBD (vs #2 Oregon)
2) Oregon 12-0	TBD (vs #1 Auburn)
3) Texas Christian 13-0	Beat #4 Wisconsin 21-19
4) Wisconsin 11-2	Lost to #3 TCU 21-19
5) Stanford 12-1	Beat #12 Va Tech 40-12
6) Ohio State 12-1	Beat #8 Arkansas 31-26
7) Michigan State 11-2	Lost to #15 Alabama 49-7
8) Arkansas 10-3	Lost to #6 Ohio St 31-26
9) Oklahoma 12-2	Beat #25 UConn 48-20
10) Boise State 12-1	Beat #20 Utah 26-3
11) Louisiana State 11-2	Beat #18 Tx A&M 41-24
12) Virginia Tech 11-3	Lost to #5 Stanford 40-12
13) Nevada 12-1	TBD (vs 7-5 BC)
14) Missouri 10-3	Lost to 8-5 Iowa 27-24
15) Alabama 10-3	Beat #7 Mich St 49-7
16) Oklahoma State 11-2	Beat 7-6 Arizona 36-10
17) Nebraska 10-4	Lost to 7-6 Wash 19-7
18) Texas A&M 9-4	Lost to #11 LSU 41-24
19) South Carolina 9-5	Lost to #23 FSU 26-17
20) Utah 10-3	Lost to #10 Boise 26-3
21) Mississippi State 9-4	Beat 7-6 Mich 52-14
22) West Virginia 9-4	Lost to 9-4 NC St 23-7
23) Florida State 10-4	Beat #19 SC 26-17
24) Hawaii 10-4	Lost to 10-3 Tulsa 62-35
25) Connecticut 8-5	Lost to #9 Oklahoma 48-20

Others Receiving Votes

Central Florida 11-3	Beat 6-7 Georgia 10-6
Maryland 9-4	Beat 6-7 East Carolina 51-20
Tulsa 10-3	Beat #24 Hawaii 62-35
Navy 9-4	Lost to 9-4 SD St 35-14
Miami-Ohio 10-4	Beat 6-7 Mid Tenn 35-21
Northern Illinois 11-3	Beat 8-5 Fresno 40-17
San Diego State 9-4	Beat 9-4 Navy 35-14
Pittsburgh 7-5	TBD (vs 6-6 Kentucky)
Fresno State 8-5	Lost to NIU 40-17
North Carolina State 9-4	Beat #22 WV 23-7
Iowa 8-5	Beat #14 Missouri 27-24
Air Force 9-4	Beat 6-7 Ga Tech 14-7

Wisconsin

The top 3 teams are certain to remain the top 3 teams in the end (though possibly in a different order), so let's start with the current #4 team. Wisconsin lost, albeit in a very close game, to unbeaten TCU. #5 Stanford is sure to pass them up in the final top 25, but what about #6 Ohio State, who beat #8 Arkansas 31-26 in the Sugar Bowl? History suggests that the Buckeyes will also pass up Wisconsin in the final poll, but should they? No. This is a terrible habit that AP poll voters simply need to break. 2011 is as good a year as any for the voters to finally take a stand for logic and justice. Here's the thing-- Wisconsin already played and defeated Ohio State 31-18. That's why the Badgers were in the Rose Bowl in the first place. That's why the writers had Wisconsin ranked higher going into the bowls. If OSU passes up Wisconsin in the final polls, all the writers are really doing is rewarding OSU for playing an easier bowl opponent. Sure, I can fix it when I repair the final AP poll next week, but it would be nice if I didn't have to.

Wisconsin lost by a missed 2-point conversion late in the game, and they were playing the #3 team. That result only goes to corroborate the high ranking the Badgers carried into the game.

Arkansas

Arkansas is in a similar position. They lost a close game to #6 Ohio State, which should only corroborate the #8 ranking they carried into the game, but history suggests that they are about to be punished by AP poll voters and dropped, probably even behind #11 LSU, whom they just defeated 31-23 in their regular season finale. 11-2 LSU has a better straight record than 10-3 Arkansas, but only because they played a #18 team in their bowl game while Arkansas played a #6 team in theirs. However, Arkansas beat LSU by only a touchdown (8 points) at home, which may appear close enough that it wasn't a decisive victory, and LSU's 41-24 win over Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl was so resounding (Arkansas only beat A&M 24-17) that we should perhaps look at these two teams in more detail...

Arkansas vs. LSU

Arkansas lost to Alabama 24-20, while LSU beat the Tide 24-21. Both teams lost to Auburn, and Arkansas took a third loss to #6 Ohio State 31-26 in the Sugar Bowl, though that game is (or should be) irrelevant when comparing LSU and Arkansas. Arkansas' win over LSU makes the 2 teams even in relevant record, with Arkansas getting the head-to-head edge. The only way I can see dismissing that head-to-head edge is if LSU played a much tougher schedule, or performed significantly better, perhaps combined with the head-to-head result being very close (not decisive). LSU did not play a tougher schedule, but they did perform definitively better against 4 common opponents (Alabama, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Auburn), and Arkansas did beat them by only 8 points at home. Throw in extra emphasis on the A&M result due to it being a bowl game, and does LSU have an argument for being ranked higher?

I don't believe so. While LSU performed better against 4 common opponents, Arkansas performed better against 1 (Mississippi). Furthermore, Arkansas performed better against 2 other opponents easily comparable to teams played by LSU. Firstly, Arkansas won at 6-7 Georgia 31-24, while LSU beat 6-7 Tennessee 16-14 at home (and Georgia beat Tennessee 41-14). Secondly, Arkansas beat 9-5 South Carolina 41-20, while LSU beat 8-5 Florida 33-29 (and SC beat UF 36-14). So LSU is now left with a performance difference of just one game over Arkansas, and that difference evaporates when we throw in their game against each other. So you see, even in performance, the teams are even, with Arkansas having the head-to-head edge.

And was their game against each other really so close? The final score may look close at 31-23, but Arkansas ended that game kneeling with the ball at the LSU 1. And they outgained LSU 464-294 yards, surpassing them in both running and passing yards. So the game was not as close as the score appears. And on a final note, while it is true that LSU performed better against Texas A&M than did Arkansas on the scoreboard (which is what counts), it should be noted that Arkansas outgained Texas A&M 442-324, while LSU outgained the Aggies 446-375 (and both played A&M in the same "neutral" stadium, interestingly enough).

I see no valid argument at all for LSU to be rated ahead of Arkansas in the final poll. If it happens, and history shows that it is nearly certain to, it is only a case of AP voters irrationally punishing Arkansas for playing the tougher bowl opponent, even though Arkansas secured the tougher bowl by beating-- and dominating-- LSU in their regular season finale.

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma

But I don't even think that 12-2 Oklahoma, who sits right behind 10-3 Arkansas at #9, should pass up the Razorbacks in the final poll. Sure OU has a better straight record, but Arkansas took two losses to teams ranked higher than Oklahoma. The Sooners did not play any team that was nearly as strong as Auburn or Ohio State, so those Arkansas losses are irrelevant when comparing OU to Arkansas. What matters is that Oklahoma took 2 upset losses (to Missouri by 9 points and Texas A&M by 14), while Arkansas took only 1 (to Alabama by 4). And while Oklahoma defeated 3 teams likely to finish ranked, Arkansas defeated 4. And while Oklahoma had 6 close wins (4 of them over unranked opponents), Arkansas only had 4 (only 1 of them against an unranked opponent). And while Oklahoma took 2 losses by more than a touchdown (both to lower-ranked teams), Arkansas suffered but 1 such loss (to current #1 Auburn). And the cherry on top? Arkansas defeated Texas A&M 24-17, who defeated Oklahoma 33-19. Not a single factor points to Oklahoma here.

As a matter of fact, not only should Oklahoma remain behind Arkansas in the final poll... the Sooners should actually drop.

Oklahoma

As I said in my last article (and every week before that), #9 Oklahoma is overrated, and should be ranked at #12, behind #10 Boise State, #11 LSU, and #15 Alabama (who has been severely underrated: more on them below). I'm talking about where they should have been ranked before the bowls, and Oklahoma's Fiesta Bowl beatdown of UConn, a team that I don't think belongs in a top 40, let alone a top 25, does nothing to help their case.

Oklahoma defeated Florida State (will finish around #17) 47-17 in their second game, which is a terrific performance, but that result came in the middle of 4 close calls against unrated opponents, wins by 7, 3, 2, and 8 points. They lost to Missouri (who will also finish around #17) by 9 points, and to Texas A&M (will finish in the bottom of the top 25) by 14. They barely beat Oklahoma State (will finish around #14), and worse, Nebraska (will also finish in the bottom of the top 25, and looked simply awful in their bowl game). They did destroy 3 winning unrated teams (Texas Tech 45-7, Baylor 53-24, and UConn 48-20), and if we add those results to the FSU win, that makes 4 games in which we can say that Oklahoma played like a top ten team. But that number is greatly outweighed by the 8 games in which they played like a #11-25 team.

But here's an easy way to look at it: Oklahoma has 2 upset losses (Missouri and Texas A&M), while LSU has none, and Boise State and Alabama each have 1. Oklahoma's many performance problems only serve to corroborate what that simple fact already tells you.

Unfortunately, Oklahoma is set to rise in the final rankings, passing up several teams that lost their bowl games (all against much tougher opponents). And that's too bad, because the Sooners should fall in the rankings, due to being overrated to begin with. But worry not, I shall no doubt attend to this problem when I fix the final poll next week.

As a side note, how awful has the Big 12 been this bowl season? I know the Big 10 is also 3-5, but they played 5 rated teams, whereas the Big 12 is 3-5 while playing only 1 rated opponent (Texas A&M vs. LSU in the Cotton Bowl). Yet people actually believe that Oklahoma is better than LSU, Boise State, and Alabama? Simply baffling.

Alabama and Michigan State

Well, if I have failed to get your attention with regard to how underrated Alabama was, I hope their Capital One Bowl demolition of #7 Michigan State woke you up a little. As I said more than a month ago, Alabama's 8-place freefall in the rankings after losing to #1 Auburn by a single point was completely ridiculous. In fact, a performance like that should have resulted in Alabama rising in the rankings, not falling. It is the result of a top 5 team. Alabama was ranked ahead of Oklahoma before that game, and they should be now. Period.

As for Alabama victim Michigan State, well of course they should be dropped behind Alabama. But what about Oklahoma? Well, Michigan State has a better relevant record than OU, but their schedule was so weak (their big Wisconsin win is their only win over a rated opponent), and their late-season performance was so putrid (destroyed by Iowa and Alabama, and edging unrated Purdue and Penn State) that the Spartans are one team OU can be ranked ahead of.

Texas A&M

I hope the AP voters don't punish Texas A&M like they usually punish teams for playing higher-rated opponents in bowl games. A&M is #18, LSU #11-- LSU should have won. In fact, maybe Texas A&M shouldn't drop at all. #21 Mississippi State passing them up would be fair, but what about #23 Florida State? FSU has 2 upset losses, whereas Texas A&M has none, and even if the Aggies were rated ahead of Missouri (more on that below), they would only have 1 upset loss (to Missouri), and that 1 is offset by their "upset" win over #9 Oklahoma (who, by the way, beat FSU 47-17). So effectively, Texas A&M is 2 or 3 games better than FSU, despite both teams having an "equal" 4 losses.

And there are teams Texas A&M could and perhaps should pass up in the final rankings, namely #17 Nebraska and even #14 Missouri. That is because both of those teams lost to unrated opponents in their bowl games, and each of them now has a worse relevant record than Texas A&M. Nebraska is a no-brainer since the Aggies beat them in November, but Missouri is trickier since the Tigers beat A&M 30-9 in October. Still, Missouri lost to Nebraska and Texas Tech, both of whom Texas A&M defeated, and now on top of that Missouri has a bowl loss to 8-5 Iowa. So Texas A&M is effectively 2 games better than Missouri, even though Mizzou has the better straight record.

Texas A&M should not be punished for playing far tougher nonconference opponents (#8 Arkansas and #11 LSU) than Nebraska and Missouri, neither of whom has played a rated nonconference opponent (though Missouri opponents San Diego State and/or Iowa could get into the very bottom of the final poll).

Very Bottom of the Final Poll

I am hoping that #19 South Carolina and #20 Utah, both bowl losers, don't fall out of the top 25. I think both deserve to be ranked based on their seasons as a whole, though SC does have an ugly-looking 9-5 record. Still, their relevant record is better than any team the voters would replace them with. And I do expect both teams to remain ranked, if barely so. Utah, at least, still has a shiny-looking 10-3 record.

#24 Hawaii and #25 Connecticut, however, are goners, both destroyed in their bowl games (and UConn should have been nowhere near the top 25 to begin with). #23 West Virginia is also in grave danger after their 23-7 loss to unranked 9-4 North Carolina State, but WV has a chance to actually hold onto a top 25 slot as the token Big East representative. You never know what those voters will do, but they like to share the wealth amongst all the conferences as much as possible. Commies, they are.

So we have up to 3 empty top 25 slots to fill. Who gets them? 9-4 NC State, who beat WV, comes to mind, and I think they likely will be ranked. And maybe West Virginia will still cling to a slot behind them. I can look at the validity of that more closely if it happens.

In the meantime, I submit my two candidates to fill the last 2 slots if NC State gets one: 8-5 Florida and 8-5 Iowa.

Florida

We've all forgotten Florida as their losses have piled up this season, but take another look. All five of their losses are to top 25 teams. They did lose to 9-5 South Carolina, but I think both SC and UF merit top 25 slots. Florida is the only unranked team that has no losses to unranked opponents. But avoiding upset losses is one thing. Who has Florida beaten?

I'm glad you asked. All of Florida's wins have come over unrated opponents, but they defeated 6 teams that qualified for bowls. That's 6 out of their 8 wins, and it also means that they played an amazing 11 bowl qualifiers amongst their 13 opponents. And only one of their wins was close, so although 3 of their 5 losses were by big scores, their performance overall was strong.

Let's compare them to teams the AP voters are more likely to rank in the final poll. Central Florida is 11-3 (and #26 in the last poll), but they have 3 losses to unranked teams (it will be 2 if NC State gets in next week), and they have just 3 wins over bowl qualifiers, half as many as Florida. Don't look at 11-3 and 8-5-- the better record here is Florida's, no contest.

Then there's another CUSA contender, 10-3 Tulsa (#28), who raised eyebrows with their 62-35 mauling of #24 Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. That was definitely a top 25 performance, but the problem is that Tulsa, who did not even make the CUSA title game, played 12 other games. They lost to 2 unranked opponents (neither of whom even finished with a winning record), and barely won their last 3 regular season games over unranked teams (winning by 3, 3, and 6). They defeated 4 bowl qualifiers, and are thus well behind Florida in every regard: 2 more upset losses, 2 more close wins over unranked teams, and 2 fewer wins over bowl qualifiers. In their only game against a rated opponent, Tulsa lost 65-28 to Oklahoma State, and while Florida was romped on 3 times by rated opponents, none of those losses were that ugly, and they came close in 2 of their games against rated opponents.

As for West Virginia, like Tulsa they have 2 losses to teams that will be unranked in the final poll (Syracuse and Connecticut), and 4 wins over bowl qualifiers, both factors favoring Florida. But unlike Tulsa, their performance is pretty close to Florida's. In the end, though, what are the chances that a 4-loss Big East team is going to be better than a 5-loss SEC team? It's possible, but highly unlikely. Florida should be rated higher than this team too.

Iowa

Iowa has a better chance of making the final AP poll than does Florida, thanks to their 27-24 upset win over #14 Missouri in the Insight Bowl, added with the lasting memory of their Alabama-like 37-6 beatdown of #7 Michigan State, as well as their strong performances in a 1 point loss to #4 Wisconsin and a 3 point loss to #6 Ohio State. They do have an ugly 3 losses to unranked teams (Arizona, Northwestern, and most ugly, Minnesota in their regular season finale), but two of those are offset by their upset wins over Michigan State and Missouri, leaving them with a decent relevant record (better than North Carolina State's, though NC State looks the better team in other regards).

It need hardly be said that, like Florida, Iowa accomplished more than did Central Florida, Tulsa, or West Virginia.

Anyway, now that we've looked at my candidates, let's look at some more contenders for the last spots in the final AP poll. I've already gone over Central Florida, Tulsa, and West Virginia above, and why I don't think they should be rated, so I'll skip them. Unfortunately, each has a strong chance of finishing in the AP poll's final top 25, but if that happens, I may just have to kick them back out when I fix the thing next week.

Maryland

9-4 Maryland has a good shot, since they were #27 in the last poll, won their bowl game 51-20 (albeit over 6-7 East Carolina), and beat 9-4 North Carolina State 38-31 at home in their season finale. But they also lost to West Virginia 31-17, whom NC State beat in their bowl game 23-7. That means that the 3 teams all finished with the same record, and defeated each other in a circle. However, Maryland's 7-point home win is the weakest of the 3 games. The other 2 games were decisive. Furthermore, NC State has an edge on the other two teams because they have an upset win over Florida State (who beat Maryland 30-16). And West Virginia performed much better than did Maryland (Maryland lost 3 games by more than a touchdown, WV 1, and Maryland had 3 close wins over unrated teams, WV 2). So NC State > WV > Maryland, even if AP voters don't see it that way. After all, West Virginia's win over Maryland came in September, and AP voters have enough trouble remembering what happened last week.

There is enough room for NC State, West Virginia, and Maryland to finish ranked, though that would be sad for Iowa and Florida. If it happens, I'll take a long look at whether it is a logically valid choice when I fix the final poll. As of now, I don't see West Virginia comparing well to Florida and Iowa, let alone Maryland.

San Diego State and Air Force

I don't know if these two MWC teams, both of whom finished 9-4 (SD State beating AF 27-25 in October), are as deserving of being ranked as Florida and Iowa, but they are both definitely more deserving than Central Florida or Tulsa. SD State has 1 upset loss, to 7-6 BYU, while Air Force's only loss to an unrated opponent came to SD State. The Aztecs lost by 3 to Missouri, 4 to Utah, and 5 to TCU (only Wisconsin came as close against them). They beat 9-4 Navy 35-14 in their bowl game, and if you watched it, you know what kind of skill position players they have. Top 25 quality. SD State may not be a top 25 team, but if not they are very, very close.

For their part, Air Force lost by only 3 to Oklahoma and 5 to Utah, and they also beat 9-4 Navy (who was #29 in the last poll).

Depending on where Utah falls, there may be room for these teams to come in behind the Utes, but I think both are longshots to make the final AP poll. San Diego State has the better chance of the two, of course.

Northern Illinois

I probably shouldn't bother listing NIU as a candidate at all, but they did beat a decent bowl opponent (Fresno State) 40-17, and they are 11-3. And they would be a token MAC team, though usually the AP poll doesn't care about including a token MAC team (last year's Central Michigan finish being an exception-- though I removed them when I fixed that poll). NIU lost to 3 unranked teams-- Iowa State, Illinois, and Miami-Ohio in the MAC title game. Of course they should not be ranked, and both Central Florida and Tulsa would even be better options than this team. But I highly doubt that NIU will end up ranked in the final poll anyway.

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