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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 5, 2010

1) Auburn 13-0
2) Oregon 12-0
3) Texas Christian 12-0
4) Wisconsin 11-1
5) Stanford 11-1
6) Ohio State 11-1
7) Michigan State 11-1
8) Arkansas 10-2
9) Oklahoma 11-2
10) Boise State 11-1
11) Louisiana State 10-2
12) Virginia Tech 11-2
13) Nevada 12-1
14) Missouri 10-2
15) Alabama 9-3
16) Oklahoma State 10-2
17) Nebraska 10-3
18) Texas A&M 9-3
19) South Carolina 9-4
20) Utah 10-2
21) Mississippi State 8-4
22) West Virginia 9-3
23) Florida State 9-4
24) Hawaii 10-3
25) Connecticut 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
Central Florida 10-3
Maryland 8-4
Tulsa 9-3
Navy 8-3
Miami-Ohio 9-4
Northern Illinois 10-3
San Diego State 8-4
Pittsburgh 7-5
Fresno State 8-4
North Carolina State 8-4
Iowa 7-5
Air Force 8-4

So, here are my last comments on the weekly AP college football poll before I fully fix their final top 25 next month. This week, Northern Illinois provided another good example of why I don't bother fixing every weekly AP poll. Impressive as they were against the MAC, NIU did not belong in the top 25 in the first place. But many problems end up fixing themselves, and NIU's loss in the MAC title game did just that, sending them out of the top 25. I just hope that if NIU wins their bowl game over Fresno State, voters don't look at their 11-3 record, say "Oooo, shiny!," and rank them again.

Another problem that fixed itself, at least to some degree, was continually overrated Oklahoma, who proved the voters right to rank them ahead of all other Big 12 teams by winning the Big 12 title. However, the Sooners are still very definitely overrated, and their bowl game against #25 Connecticut (who, needlessly to say, does not belong in the top 25) will not give them an opportunity to prove the voters right. So barring a major upset in the Fiesta Bowl, Oklahoma will be overrated in the final AP poll.

Oklahoma

Let's take a closer look at the Sooners. They really came through in their last two games, beating #16 Oklahoma State by 6 points and #17 Nebraska by 3 to win the Big 12. But even those results both indicate that Oklahoma is only just a little better than those teams. They also lost to #18 Texas A&M by 14 points in November, and to #14 Missouri by 9 in late October. Combine all that with the fact that the Sooners repeatedly struggled to beat unranked opponents, and OU's #9 ranking looks rather dubious. So let's compare them to the teams ranked right behind them.

Oklahoma passed Boise State up in this week's poll, presumably because voters were impressed by Oklahoma's 23-20 win over #17 Nebraska and unimpressed by Boise State's 50-14 win over Utah State. However, the voters have Boise State rated well ahead of Nebraska, so I would assume that they think the Broncos could beat Nebraska by at least 3 points as well (given Nebraska's broken offense, I think it would be a lot more than a 3 point win). But here's something we know for a fact-- Boise State's 50-14 win over Utah State is a helluva lot more impressive than Oklahoma's 31-24 win over the same opponent.

But I am not advocating ranking Boise State ahead of Oklahoma on the basis of that common opponent. I am advocating it on the basis of the two teams' entire seasons. Boise State has one upset loss, by 3 points to #13 Nevada. But Oklahoma has two upset losses, both to teams ranked lower than Nevada, and both by more than a touchdown. Oklahoma did beat an impressive 3 ranked teams, but that makes them 3-2 against the top 25, while Boise State is a superior 2-1. And BSU victim Virginia Tech, at #12, is a higher ranked team than anyone OU defeated. After the bowls, if both teams win, BSU will likely be 3-1 against top 25 teams, OU still 3-2. Yet OU will be ranked higher-- unless voters get some sense before then.

Boise State has also stomped all of their unrated opponents, whereas Oklahoma beat 3 unrated opponents by 7, 3, and 2 points. There is absolutely no question that Boise State should be ranked higher right now. If the Broncos are upset by 10-2 Utah in their bowl game, the voters will be proven right, but if not, I hope they wake up and move Boise State back ahead.

Then there's #11 LSU, who is also 3-2 against rated opponents, except that both of their losses were close, and both came to teams ranked higher than Oklahoma. Whereas OU lost to 2 teams ranked well lower than LSU. Again, there is simply no question that LSU should be rated higher. Now if LSU is upset by Texas A&M in their bowl game, then perhaps voters will be vindicated. However, even in that case, LSU would have 1 upset loss to Oklahoma's 2, and let's not forget that OU lost to Texas A&M 33-19. We shall see if LSU can do better than that.

But I suppose Oklahoma can be rated higher than #12 Virginia Tech due to Tech's weak schedule and ugly loss to James Madison. Conclusion: OU should have been rated no higher than #11 this week.

The Rest of the Big 12

Oklahoma State is #16, Nebraska #17, and Texas A&M #18, and I assume that OSU is rated the highest of these teams because they have 2 losses and the other two teams each have 3. However, OSU also played a weaker schedule than the other two (Texas A&M played #8 Arkansas, and Texas A&M and Nebraska both played #14 Missouri, while OSU did not). These 3 teams defeated each other in a circle, OSU over Texas A&M at home 38-35, A&M over Nebraska at home 9-6, and Nebraska over OSU on the road 51-41. Obviously, Nebraska's win is the best of the 3, being both on the road and by more than a touchdown, so you could rate these teams like so: Nebraska > Oklahoma State > Texas A&M. In that case, Nebraska and Oklahoma State should be switched in the AP poll.

But another option is to look more closely at Texas A&M's loss to Oklahoma State and note that that loss took place in September, before Texas A&M's Jerrod "turnover machine" Johnson was replaced at quarterback by Ryan Tannehill, and before Cyrus Gray took over as the starting running back and ran off 6 straight 100 yard rushing efforts (223 against Texas). It is no coincidence that A&M has also run off 6 straight wins, including victories over Nebraska and Oklahoma (both of whom beat OSU). Texas A&M is very clearly not the same team OSU beat in September. And OSU barely won that game at home, getting outgained 535 yards to 351, and needing 4 Jerrod Johnson interceptions and a Johnson fumble returned for a touchdown to do it. Not only that, but that is OSU's only win over a ranked opponent, whereas Texas A&M and Nebraska each have two such wins, and much more solid wins to boot.

So another valid option, and I think the best one, would be to rank these 3 teams like so: Texas A&M > Nebraska > Oklahoma State. In that case, Texas A&M should be moved up a couple slots in the AP poll, and OSU should be dropped behind Nebraska. Unfortunately for the Aggies, despite the fact that they are ranked behind 4 Big 12 teams, they are the only team in the conference who is facing a ranked bowl opponent, and it is #11 LSU. So they'll need a big upset win in the Cotton Bowl to end up ranked where they should be. But the really unfair part of it is, if they lose, as seems likely, they will end up severely underranked, and it is only because they played 2 (highly) ranked nonconference opponents, while OSU and Nebraska played none. If only AP voters could properly account for strength of schedule...

Nevada

Most of the time, AP voters overrate good "little big" teams. But when a little big team is actually good, the voters underrate that team almost every time. Thus is the case with #13 Nevada, who has no business being ranked behind #12 Virginia Tech. Yes, Nevada was upset 27-21 at #24 Hawaii, but Virginia Tech was upset at home by James Madison, a team that is mediocre by even lower-division standards. And yes, VT beat #23 Florida State-- their only win over a ranked opponent, mind you-- but Nevada comes out ahead here as well, since they beat #10 Boise State. And Virginia Tech, let's remember, lost to Boise State. There is no good argument for VT here at all.

If Virginia Tech "upsets" #5 Stanford in the Orange Bowl, will voters be vindicated? Nope. Stanford has not beaten a single rated opponent, and so we don't really know how good they are. They could be #2, or they could be #25. So if VT beats them, all it means is that Stanford should drop back behind them. On the other hand, if Nevada loses to Boston College in their bowl game, then voters will be vindicated. And Nevada will (rightfully) plummet in the top 25 if that happens. In fact, even if Nevada wins, but the game is close, we can look at possibly rating Virginia Tech higher. But until then, these two teams should be switched around in the AP poll.

Alabama

As I said last week, Alabama is underrated, and not much has changed since then (except that 'Bama jumped ahead of Oklahoma State, though both teams were idle). If there were no more games to be played, and I were fixing this poll, I would drop Oklahoma to #12, and move Alabama up to #11, ahead of them.

But much unlike Oklahoma, Alabama gets a huge test in their bowl game, against #7 Michigan State. If the Tide loses that game, I only hope that voters don't continue to punish 'Bama for their rock-hard schedule. The amount voters dropped Alabama for losing by 1 point to #1 Auburn last week was flat-out ridiculous. I actually think Alabama will beat MSU, but whatever happens, voters need to look much more closely at Alabama when ranking them.

Connecticut

Do I even need to say it? Is there anyone in the country, other than UConn fans and those AP poll voters who voted for them, who thinks Connecticut belongs in the top 25? This team lost four games to unranked opponents, three of those by huge scores. This ranking is simply inexcusable, and serves no purpose other than to extend some kindness to the execrable BCS. I suppose that a Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma, as unlikely as that seems, might vindicate voters, but even that wouldn't wipe out four losses to unranked teams.

So who would make a viable replacement? The next team in line outside the AP's top 25 is 10-3 Central Florida, an equally crappy team with three losses to unranked teams, and unlike Connecticut, they don't even have decent wins. One of the teams Central Florida lost to was 8-4 North Carolina State, and UCF should definitely not be rated ahead of them, even if NC State loses their bowl game (to #22 West Virginia). And even if UCF beats 6-6 Georgia in their bowl game, that's just not impressive. Still, for UCF, Georgia is no gimme, so maybe I won't have to waste any time explaining why UCF should not be ranked when I fix the final poll next month.

Should North Carolina State be ranked instead of Connecticut? Well, NC State lost to 8-4 Maryland, the AP poll's #27 team, so I suppose it should be Maryland. The Terrapins have 2 losses to unranked opponents, but that is an improvement over both Connecticut and Central Florida, and they have a couple of good wins too (over 8-3 Navy and NC State). So they would make a decent replacement.

But as I said last week, 8-4 San Diego State and 8-4 Air Force are also viable options. SD State has only 1 loss to an unrated opponent. Their losses to #14 Missouri, #3 TCU, and #20 Utah were all very close, and they beat Air Force, whose other 3 losses all came to rated teams (including a 27-24 loss to #9 Oklahoma). And Air Force beat 8-3 Navy (The AP's #29 team). SD State and AF both play unrated teams in their bowls, so their chances of getting into the final top 25 are dim even if they win, but hey, they might make the fixed top 25. Tune in next month to find out if they do...

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