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2022 TipTop 25 Week Eleven

Arkansas is picked first out of my hat for 2022

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Arkansas was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot. Sadly for the Razorbacks, they were unimpressive enough in their opener that they fell out of the top slot immediately, and by now they have fallen all the way out of the TipTop 25.

As the games are played, I will be ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked entirely based on what they do this season and, for the first half of the season at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (as well as where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that all FCS teams are at a lower power level, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. Similarly, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Oklahoma had initially replaced Arkansas at #1, but Ohio State took over the top slot after Oklahoma lost to Kansas State on September 24. Ohio State has been very impressive, winning every game by more than a touchdown, but 3 weeks ago Clemson passed them up anyway, because Clemson had beaten 4 ranked opponents by then, Ohio State none. However, Ohio State returned to the top spot with a win over a top 10 team (Penn State) the next week, and there the Buckeyes have remained ever since.

TipTop 25 After Week Eleven Games

The rankings are stabilizing, meaning that we're not seeing many big changes from the rankings we saw last week. The latest rankings:

#1
Ohio State 10-0
#2 Georgia 10-0
#3 Tennessee 9-1
#4 Michigan 10-0
#5 Texas Christian 10-0
#6 Penn State 8-2
#7 Louisiana State 8-2
#8 Alabama 8-2
#9 Mississippi 8-2
#10 Clemson 9-1
#11 Notre Dame 7-3
#12 North Carolina 9-1
#13 Florida State 7-3
#14 Syracuse 6-4
#15 North Carolina State 7-3
#16 Wake Forest 6-4
#17 Louisville 6-4
#18 Pittsburgh 6-4
#19 Florida 6-4
#20 Kentucky 6-4
#21 Mississippi State 6-4
#22 Oregon 8-2
#23 UCLA 8-2
#24 Utah 8-2
#25 Washington 8-2

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

Florida State's big 38-3 smackdown of Syracuse moves the Seminoles ahead of the Orange, as well as North Carolina State, who was upset by unranked Boston College this week. In this position, FSU now has 2 upset losses (to Wake Forest and NC State), and that enables Louisiana State, who has previously lost to Florida State and has thus been trapped behind them, to move up past FSU (the 1 head-to-head result being outweighed by FSU's 2 upset losses). Following on LSU's coat tails are Alabama and Mississippi, who have each lost to LSU and who have taken no upset losses. We'll move all 3 teams ahead of Clemson, who has an upset loss to Notre Dame, and who was not ranked in the preseason top 50 (LSU was #28 and Mississippi #23).

Kentucky was upset by unranked Vanderbilt this week, and it was their 2nd upset loss, having previously lost to unranked South Carolina, so they drop behind Florida, despite having beaten Florida. Dropping with Kentucky is Mississippi State, who has previously lost to Kentucky. Mississippi State remains ranked ahead of a strong pack of PAC 12 teams because they were rated #10 in the preseason, while the highest preseason ratings amongst the pack of PAC 12 teams were #13 for Oregon State (now ranked outside the TipTop 25 at #27) and #15 for Utah (now ranked #24).

Washington moves into the rankings thanks to a big upset win over #22 Oregon this week. The Huskies move up past 9-1 Southern Cal (now ranked outside the TipTop 25 at #26) because Washington now has the same relevant record that USC has, and Washington was ranked #30 in the preseason, while USC was not ranked in the preseason at all.

Close to the Top 25

These teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Southern Cal
#27 Oregon State
#28
Liberty
#29 Arkansas
#30 Central Florida
#31 Cincinnati
#32 Tulane
#33 East Carolina
#34 South Carolina
#35
Troy
#36 South Alabama
#37 Kansas State

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