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2019 TipTop 25 Week Seven

Georgia Southern is picked first out of my hat for 2019

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Georgia Southern was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 55-3 at previously unranked Louisiana State, so their stay at the top was brief.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Ohio State Still #1

I pulled the Buckeyes out of my hat for the #41 slot in the preseason, and then they methodically worked their way upward week after week. In their opener, they defeated #44 Florida Atlantic 45-21 and moved up the list to #27. The next week, they blasted #25 Cincinnati 42-0, sending them up to #16. Then they stomped on #38 Indiana 51-10, on the road no less, and rose to #11. Next up was a 76-5 annihilation of unranked Miami (Ohio), and due to the struggles of teams ranked ahead of them that week, the Buckeyes found themselves ranked #5.

The next week, Ohio State again annihilated an unranked team, 48-7 at Nebraska, and again the teams ranked ahead of them struggled, enabling OSU to rise all the way to #1. Our previous #1, Navy, lost 35-23 at Memphis, #2 Wisconsin only won 24-15 over a bad Northwestern team (not nearly a good enough performance for a #1 team, or even top 10), #3 Kansas State lost 26-13 at Oklahoma State, and #4 Mississippi State was embarrassed 56-23 at Auburn. Last week, OSU demolished #30 Michigan State 34-10, and this week the Buckeyes were off.

Ohio State has been perfect thus far, but this week there is tremendous pressure on them from #2 Louisiana State, who just beat #5 Florida (now #3) 42-28. LSU now owns victories over teams that are currently ranked #3, #9, and #23, while Ohio State has only beaten #18. But as I have said many times on this site, just because a team plays a tougher schedule than another does not mean that that team is better than the other. I think LSU could be ranked #1, and I was very close to moving them there, but as I just noted, Ohio State has been perfect thus far, so the Buckeyes hold on to the throne for now... if just barely.

TipTop 25 After Week Seven Games

Last week, our top 25 featured six "Little Big Teams" (mid-majors), which is a lot for that deep into the season, but this week we see that number actually increase to eight Little Big Teams! Those 8 teams are a combined 7-3 against major conference teams this year. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Ohio State	6-0	1	Did not play
#2	Louisiana State	6-0	2	Won 42-28 over #5 Florida (now #3)
#3	Florida	6-1	5	Lost 42-28 at #2 Louisiana State
#4	Auburn	5-1	6	Did not play
#5	Wisconsin	6-0	7	Won 38-0 over unrated Michigan State
#6	Oregon	5-1	8	Won 45-3 over unrated Colorado
#7	Penn State	6-0	9	Won 17-12 at #19 Iowa (now #15)
#8	Oklahoma	6-0	10	Won 34-27 over #11 Texas in Dallas
#9	Texas	4-2	11	Lost 34-27 to #10 Oklahoma in Dallas
#10	Alabama	6-0	12	Won 47-28 at #26 Texas A&M
#11	Clemson	6-0	16	Won 45-14 over unrated Florida State
#12	Boise State	6-0	15	Won 59-37 over unrated Hawaii
#13	Appalachian State	5-0	17	Won 17-7 at Louisiana
#14	Michigan	5-1	18	Won 42-25 at unrated Illinois
#15	Iowa	4-2	19	Lost 17-12 to #9 Penn State (now #7)
#16	Baylor	6-0	20	Won 33-30 in OT over unrated Texas Tech
#17	Iowa State	4-2	21	Won 38-14 at unrated West Virginia
#18	Cincinnati	5-1	25	Won 38-23 at unrated Houston
#19	Temple	5-1	Unrated	Won 30-28 over #13 Memphis (now #20)
#20	Memphis	5-1	13	Lost 30-28 at unrated Temple (now #19)
#21	Navy	4-1	14	Won 45-17 at unrated Tulsa
#22	Wake Forest	5-1	23	Lost 62-59 to unrated Louisville
#23	Utah State	3-2	24	Did not play
#24	North Carolina	3-3	Unrated	Did not play
#25	San Diego State	5-1	Unrated	Won 26-22 over unrated Wyoming (now #26)

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

This is the first week that we must acknowledge some losses as anomalies. That is to say, teams have beaten each other up to such a degree that we must rank some teams ahead of teams they have lost to. It is pretty early in the season to reach this point. It may seem "common sense" that 5-1 Georgia (#3 last week) should remain ranked ahead of 3-3 South Carolina, who beat them on the road this week, but all 3 of SC's losses have come to teams ranked ahead of them, and Georgia hasn't beaten anyone but Notre Dame, and Notre Dame hasn't beaten anyone worthwhile at all (the Irish did own a win over a ranked Virginia, but Virginia took an upset loss this week and is no longer ranked). So we are knocking Georgia (and Notre Dame with them) back behind South Carolina, all the way out of the top 25. Georgia will have plenty of chances later in the season to prove that their loss to SC was an anomaly.

The two teams we are ranking in the top 25 this week who have taken losses to unranked teams are 5-1 Temple (#19) and 5-1 Wake Forest (#22). Temple took an ugly loss at unranked Buffalo earlier in the season, but they just beat 5-1 Memphis (#13 last week), who owns a win over 4-1 Navy (now #21). Temple was ranked #24 in the preseason top 25, Navy #4, so these teams are still bolstered somewhat by their high preseason rankings.

Wake Forest just took their first loss this week, 62-59 to unrated Louisville, but the Demon Deacons are buoyed by previous wins over #23 Utah State and #24 North Carolina, so they remain ranked for now. North Carolina has previously beaten South Carolina, who just beat 5-1 Georgia. UNC may be 3-3, but all 3 of their losses have come to ranked opponents, and all 3 games were razor-close, so strong performances. In addition, Carolina was ranked #29 in the preseason top 25.

We're moving Clemson past Boise State this week because Clemson just rolled to a 45-14 win over Florida State, whom Boise State had only beaten by 5 points. Boise State has 2 close wins over unranked opponents, while Clemson has 1 close win, over a team now ranked #24.

5-1 San Diego State moves into the top 25 because they just beat 4-2 Wyoming, who has beaten 5-1 Missouri, who has beaten 3-3 South Carolina, who just beat 5-1 Georgia. The Aztecs took a close loss to #23 Utah State earlier in the season.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Wyoming
#27 Missouri
#28 South Carolina
#29 Georgia
#30 Notre Dame
#31 Southern Methodist
#32 Minnesota

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This is the worst slate of games since the opening week. We have just one game pitting top 25 teams against each other, #14 Michigan visiting #7 Penn State. Two other games are close, #3 Florida at #28 South Carolina and #19 Temple at #31 Southern Methodist. In addition, 5-1 Tulane visits #20 Memphis, and 5-1 Arizona State travels to 5-1 Utah. Also, be aware that 14 of our top 25 teams are playing on the road this week, an unusually high amount, and that often means we're in for a handful of upsets. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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