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2018 Preseason TipTop 25

Greetings and welcome to my fourth annual TipTop 25, an altogether different approach to ranking the top 25 college football teams, at least early in the season. What makes it so different? Well, for my preseason top 25, I have once again literally drawn names out of a hat:

My hat with all the teams in it

Why would I do such a thing? Because every year, there are some people who like to gripe about the silliness of preseason college football polls, the premise being that no one really knows who will be good or not before the season starts. For example, last year in the preseason AP poll, Florida State was ranked #3, Michigan #11, Louisville #16, and Florida #17, and none of those teams finished ranked in the final poll. Meanwhile, in the final poll, Central Florida finished #6, Texas Christian #9, Notre Dame #11, and Michigan State #15, and none of those teams were ranked in the preseason poll.

Now, I have no problem with preseason polls myself. They're just for fun, and I enjoy looking at them. Yes, teams that are ranked highly in the preseason AP poll may have an "unfair" advantage in later polls, but that's only because many sportswriters aren't very good at rating teams. That's not the fault of the preseason poll. And while some of the preseason rankings will turn out to be wrong, for the most part preseason polls tend to be pretty close: last year, 17 teams from the preseason AP poll finished ranked, and that is a lot more than you're likely to get by simply picking teams out of a hat (on average, that will get you about 5 correct out of the 25).

Still, a few years ago I got to thinking: what if we did simply pick teams out of a hat, and then go from there each week? And we could treat all teams with a blank slate, ignoring their histories, performances from last year, returning starters, etc. We would only focus on what each team does this year, with a completely random ranking to start the season. Now, is this what I think people should be doing when they rank teams early in the season? Heck no, this is just for fun.

So for the fourth straight year, I've written out all the 130 FBS teams on slips of paper, put them in a hat, and then drawn 25 of them out one by one. Starting with my preseason #1 team for 2018:

Tulane is the first school picked at random from my hat

That's right, our preseason #1 team this year is the mighty Green Wave of Tulane! Here is the full preseason top 25 as designated by my magic hat (which, by the way, also designated Alabama to Slytherin House for the fourth straight year):

#1 Tulane
#2 Illinois
#3 Virginia Tech
#4 Vanderbilt
#5 Boise State
#6 Rice
#7 Central Florida
#8 Colorado
#9 Texas State
#10 San Diego State
#11 Virginia
#12 Florida
#13 Auburn
#14 Louisiana State
#15 Texas San Antonio
#16 New Mexico State
#17 Florida State
#18 Georgia Southern
#19 Texas Tech
#20 North Carolina State
#21 Buffalo
#22 Oklahoma
#23 Air Force
#24 Florida Atlantic
#25 Baylor


But I didn't stop there. In order to properly rank teams after the first week of games, I will also need to know which teams are close to being ranked, so I pulled out another 25 teams to give us a top 50:


#26 Louisiana Tech
#27 Akron
#28 Oregon
#29 Southern Methodist
#30 Utah State
#31 Tennessee
#32 Mississippi
#33 South Florida
#34 Georgia
#35 Nebraska
#36 Colorado State
#37 Louisiana
#38 Massachusetts
#39 Coastal Carolina
#40 Fresno State
#41 Army
#42 Texas
#43 Eastern Michigan
#44 Texas El Paso
#45 Rutgers
#46 Missouri
#47 Southern Cal
#48 Temple
#49 Connecticut
#50 Boston College

Looking Ahead to the First Week's Games

Games start August 25, but the first full week of games will be the following weekend, so we won't start adjusting these ratings until after that. We have a pair of games featuring teams in our top 25 the first week: #3 Virginia Tech at #17 Florida State and #24 Florida Atlantic at #22 Oklahoma. There are also a bunch of other games between teams in our top 50: #7 Central Florida at #49 Connecticut, #8 Colorado at #36 Colorado State, #9 Texas State at #45 Rutgers, #32 Mississippi at #19 Texas Tech, and #27 Akron at #35 Nebraska.

How Last Year's Preseason Top 25 Fared

So how did last year's preseason top 25 fare? Awfully! This should be a good preview for how this year's preseason top 25 teams will perform. Here is last year's preseason top 25, along with their final record at season's end and final ranking, for those few that finished ranked (fixed AP poll):

#1 Clemson
12-2 #4
#2 Georgia Southern
2-10
#3 Mississippi
6-6
#4 Western Kentucky
6-7
#5 Utah State
6-7
#6 Texas Tech
6-7
#7 Arkansas State
7-5
#8 Temple
7-6
#9 Washington
10-3 #18
#10 Rice
1-11
#11 Kansas State
8-5
#12 Arizona
7-6
#13 Toledo
11-3
#14 Auburn
10-4 #8
#15 Tennessee
4-8
#16 Louisville
8-5
#17 Georgia
13-2  #2
#18 Wisconsin
13-1 #6
#19 Florida International
8-5
#20 Wyoming
8-5
#21 Massachusetts
4-8
#22 Louisiana
5-7
#23 Idaho
4-8
#24 Rutgers
4-8
#25 Texas State 2-10

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