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2016 TipTop 25 Week Two

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but this week they were drubbed 42-21 at previously unranked UCLA, so we will have a new team at the top of the list, as covered below.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

Here is a little MS Paint I made to commemorate our new #1 Louisville. I pulled Louisville out of my hat for the #12 slot in the preseason, and they moved up to #8 after the first week. This week they make the jump all the way to #1 because on Friday, they destroyed previous #2 Syracuse 62-28 on the road. They have another tough test this week, a home bout with #21 Florida State.

Top 25 After Week Two Games

Five teams that were ranked in our top 11 last week took "upset" losses, so we have a big shake-up in the rankings this week. At this point, only 14 of our original top 25 teams remain ranked in the top 25. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Louisville	2-0	8	Won 62-28 at #2 Syracuse
#2	Colorado	2-0	3	Won 56-7 over an FCS team
#3	Ohio State	2-0	12	Won 48-3 over #9 Tulsa
#4	Stanford	1-0	5	Did not play
#5	Marshall	1-0	6	Won 62-0 over an FCS team
#6	Baylor	2-0	10	Won 40-13 over unranked Southern Methodist
#7	Alabama	2-0	13	Won 38-10 over unranked Western Kentucky
#8	Houston	2-0	14	Won 42-0 over an FCS team
#9	Texas	2-0	16	Won 41-7 over #26 Texas El Paso
#10	Notre Dame	1-1	17	Won 39-10 over unranked Nevada
#11	Texas A&M	2-0	Unranked	Won 67-0 over an FCS team
#12	UCLA	1-1	Unranked	Won 42-21 over #1 UNLV
#13	Nebraska	2-0	25	Won 52-17 over #11 Wyoming
#14	South Florida	2-0	Unranked	Won 48-17 over #15 Northern Illinois
#15	Indiana	2-0	18	Won 30-20 over #40 Ball State
#16	Georgia Southern	2-0	Unranked	Won 24-9 at #21 South Alabama (now #25)
#17	Memphis	1-0	19	Did not play
#18	Toledo	2-0	20	Won 45-3 over an FCS team
#19	Georgia Tech	2-0	23	Won 35-10 over an FCS team
#20	Michigan	2-0	24	Won 51-14 over unranked Central Florida
#21	Florida State	2-0	28	Won 52-8 over an FCS team
#22	Texas State	1-0	29	Did not play
#23	Ohio	1-1	Unranked	Won 37-21 at #32 Kansas
#24	Southern Cal	1-1	Unranked	Won 45-7 over #42 Utah State
#25	South Alabama	1-1	21	Lost 24-9 to now-#16 Georgia Southern

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

It's not just losing that will cause a team to drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team will do it too. So Georgia, who had been ranked #5 last week, drops out of the rankings entirely after edging Nicholls State by just 2 points at home this week. #1 UNLV and #2 Syracuse also drop out after getting stomped this week, so that's 3 of our top 5 gone.

Ohio State had started #37 in the preseason, but they won 77-10 over #17 Bowling Green in week one, and they won 48-3 over #9 Tulsa this week, so they have a very strong case for being ranked #1. For now, I have them #3.

Texas A&M comes roaring into the top 25 at #11, but it's not because they annihilated an FCS team this week. It's because they beat UCLA in overtime in week one, which matters because this week UCLA defeated our previous #1 UNLV 42-21. UCLA comes in right behind A&M at #12.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Mississippi State
#27 South Carolina
#28 Vanderbilt
#29 Air Force
#30 Washington
#31 Utah
#32 San Diego State
#33 Southern Miss
#34 Pittsburgh
#35 Penn State
#36 Oregon
#37 Arizona State
#38 California
#39 Ball State
#40 West Virginia
#41 Brigham Young

Also, the following 3 teams have all posted 2 impressive wins over FBS opponents, so bear watching: Army, Iowa, and Florida.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

#1 Louisville plays another ranked team this week. They stomped previous #2 Syracuse 62-28 on the road in their last outing, and next they host #21 Florida State. Our #2 team, Colorado, also faces a tough test, visiting #20 Michigan. #4 Stanford hosts #24 Southern Cal, so that makes 3 of our top 5 teams facing ranked opponents.

In addition, #9 Texas visits #38 Cal, #12 UCLA visits #41 BYU, #13 Nebraska hosts #36 Oregon, and #19 Georgia Tech hosts #28 Vanderbilt. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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