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Fixing the Final 2020 AP College Football Poll

1) Alabama 13-0
2) Ohio State 7-1
3) Clemson 10-2
4) Texas A&M 9-1
5) Notre Dame 10-2
6) Oklahoma 9-2
7) Georgia 8-2
8) Cincinnati 9-1
9) Iowa State 9-3
10) Northwestern 7-2
11) Brigham Young 11-1
12) Indiana 6-2
13) Florida 8-4
14) Coastal Carolina 11-1
15) Louisiana 10-1
16) Iowa 6-2
17) Liberty 10-1
18) North Carolina 8-4
19) Texas 7-3
20) Oklahoma State 8-3
21) Southern Cal 5-1
22) Miami (Florida) 8-3
23) Ball State 7-1
24) San Jose State 7-1
25) Buffalo 6-1

Here is the final AP poll college football top 25 for the 2020 season. The fixed final AP poll top 25 follows the article below.

But before I get to correcting the AP poll's errors, let me make one thing clear. This is not about what I would personally prefer to see in the rankings. I myself would be inclined to rank 10-1 Liberty ahead of 11-1 Coastal Carolina, whom they defeated in the Cure Bowl, and I would put 10-1 Louisiana ahead of 9-3 Iowa State, whom they defeated 31-14 on the road, just as a couple of examples. But in these cases, the choices the AP poll made are logically viable, if barely. This is about fixing only those AP poll choices that are not logically valid or fair.

A handful of teams see substantial shifts in the rankings when I fix this year's AP poll, but no team will fall out of the top 25 this time. The 25 teams you see listed to the left are the 25 teams you'll see in the fixed top 25 at the bottom of this article, just in a different order. This is a rare and remarkable thing, as the last AP poll that saw no teams fall out of the fixed top 25 was 1985!

So... good job on that score, sportswriters!

Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith catching a touchdown pass in the national championship game for the 2020 season

My ms-painting of Heisman Trophy winning receiver DeVonta Smith, who caught 12 passes for 215 yards and 3 touchdowns in just one half to lead Alabama's 52-24 demolition of Ohio State in the national championship game. Interestingly, DeVonta Smith was the subject of my ms-painting for the 2017 NC as well.

What a Crazy Year!

Before I get to fixing this year's AP poll top 25, just a quick word here to acknowledge what a strange year it was. The COVID-19 epidemic spurred a drastic reduction in non-conference games this year, and almost all teams played shortened seasons, quite a few of them playing half the games they normally do. Perhaps it is no coincidence that five teams finished ranked in this year's AP poll that had never been ranked before: #14 Coastal Carolina, #15 Louisiana, #17 Liberty, #23 Ball State, and #25 Buffalo. That is an enormous amount of first-timers in the AP poll, the most since 1945, fully 75 years ago! I'll go into more detail on this at the bottom of the article, after the fixed top 25 list, but for now, let's get to fixing it...

Texas A&M

I cannot see a good reason for Texas A&M (9-1, #4) to have passed up Notre Dame (10-2, #5) after the bowl games. Notre Dame lost their bowl game 31-14 to Alabama, but Texas A&M had already lost to that same team 52-24, which is of course worse than Notre Dame did (Notre Dame's defense actually held Alabama to a lower score than anyone else did this season). Texas A&M won their bowl game 41-27 over #18 North Carolina, but Notre Dame had already beaten that same team 31-17 on the road, and due to that location, it was, again, a better result. So both bowl results actually reinforced the notion that Notre Dame was the slightly better team, and yet AP poll voters moved Texas A&M ahead of them anyway, simply because one team won (against a #18 opponent) and the other lost (to #1). Wholly illogical.

I myself would rank Texas A&M even higher than the AP poll did, ahead of #3 Clemson. However, once the AP poll put Clemson ahead of the Aggies, it made no sense to put A&M ahead of Notre Dame, because, in addition to the illogic of moving A&M past Notre Dame based on the teams' bowl results, Notre Dame owns a win against Clemson this season (and so a win against a team that is rated higher than A&M). The best team Texas A&M defeated is ranked #13.

I think that logically, Texas A&M can be rated ahead of both Clemson and Notre Dame, or they can be rated behind both Clemson and Notre Dame, but they should not be rated between them. So where do we put them when fixing this AP poll? Well, Clemson totaled 54 more AP poll points than Texas A&M, and Texas A&M totaled 45 more poll points than Notre Dame, a bit less, so on that slim basis we'll put Texas A&M behind both teams.

Switch 'em. Notre Dame #4, Texas A&M #5.

Florida > Georgia

I predicted and addressed this problem in an article I published not long after the January 2nd bowl games. I'll just repeat the points I made there: the Gators beat the Dawgs 44-28 this year, thereby winning the East division of the SEC over Georgia. Florida is 8-4 and Georgia 8-2, but Florida's extra 2 losses came to Texas A&M and Oklahoma, both of whom are rated higher than Georgia, and because of that, those games are largely irrelevant when comparing Florida to Georgia. The two teams have the same relevant record, but Florida's head-to-head win over Georgia is the tie-breaker in their favor. And it was a dominating win.

Florida's big 55-20 loss to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl was a very poor performance, but it was one of only 2 poor performances by Florida this season, while Georgia suffered 3: their big loss to Florida, a close win over 4-7 Mississippi State at home, and a big loss to Alabama, a team Florida came within a touchdown of beating in the SEC title game. Needless to say, Florida did far better against Alabama than anyone else did this season, and that game was just a few weeks ago.

Georgia did defeat previously unbeaten Cincinnati, who had been rated #6, in their bowl game, but let's not get carried away with that win. First of all, that is the only rated team Georgia has beaten this season. And secondly, Cincinnati has beaten no rated teams at all. For all we know, the Bearcats are no better than, say, #18 in power level, and so beating them is just not that big a deal.

Florida should be moved up ahead of Georgia, who must remain ranked ahead of Cincinnati. Where do we put these 3 teams? Well, the average ranking of the 3 teams is 9.3, which would place them right behind current #9 Iowa State, and I think that will work well enough. Personally, I would rank Iowa State way back behind 10-1 Louisiana (#15), who beat them 31-14 in Ames. But Iowa State certainly performed far better than Louisiana did, and they played a far tougher schedule, so I think they can be fairly rated higher than Louisiana. The Big 12 posted the best record against nonconference opponents this season, including a spectacular 5-0 record in bowl games, and Iowa State did so much better against Oklahoma (twice!) than Florida did that I think rating them ahead of the Gators is logically valid as well.

All of this results in the following ratings shift: Iowa State #7, Florida #8, Georgia #9, Cincinnati #10, Northwestern #11, Brigham Young #12, and Indiana #13.

Coastal Carolina > Brigham Young

Here we have another unfairly ignored head-to-head result. 11-1 Coastal Carolina (#14) defeated 11-1 Brigham Young (now #12) 22-17 in December, and as a result they ought to be rated higher. CC did take an "upset" loss in their bowl game, giving it greater emphasis than a regular season game, but the team they lost to, 10-1 Liberty (#17), is a far better team than anyone BYU beat. As such, I don't see why that loss should move BYU ahead of Coastal Carolina. As a matter of fact, BYU didn't beat any rated team this season, and what's more, they didn't beat any of the 13 teams in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of the AP poll. Meanwhile, in addition to beating BYU, Coastal Carolina defeated 10-1 Louisiana (#15) and 9-3 Appalachian State (just outside top 25 at #26).

Given their atrocious schedule and resulting lack of accomplishments, I see no legitimate reason at all for Brigham Young to be ranked ahead of Coastal Carolina, so we'll drop the Cougars back behind them, where they belong. That puts BYU just ahead of Louisiana, who has a better relevant record thanks to an "upset" win over Iowa State (now #7). However, the performance difference between these 2 teams is immense: Louisiana posted 6 close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated opponents, BYU just 1. So I think BYU can legitimately remain ranked ahead of Louisiana.

Indiana moves up to #12, Coastal Carolina to #13, and Brigham Young drops back to #14.

Northwestern

7-2 Northwestern had a great season, but they are very overrated at #10 (now #11). Their upset loss, by more than a touchdown to 2-5 Michigan State, is extremely ugly, arguably the worst loss taken by any team in the top 25, and their big win, by 1 point over #16 Iowa, just tells us that they were slightly better than Iowa. And that is where I think they should be ranked, right in front of Iowa.

Let's cut to the chase and compare Northwestern to 10-1 Louisiana, who currently sits in front of Iowa. As I previously noted, Louisiana repeatedly posted poor performances, which is why I thought it was fine for Brigham Young to be rated ahead of them. However, unlike BYU, Northwestern took an upset loss to an unrated team. Because Louisiana defeated a higher-rated team (now-#7 Iowa State), they have a relevant record that is effectively 2 games better than that of Northwestern for the season. And while BYU only posted 1 poor performance, Northwestern delivered 3, so there is just not nearly enough of a performance difference here to ignore the effective 2-game difference that favors Louisiana.

Indiana, Coastal Carolina, Brigham Young, and Louisiana all move up a spot, and Northwestern drops back to #15.

Liberty

10-1 Liberty (#17) defeated 11-1 Coastal Carolina (now #12) 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl, and I would definitely rank Liberty higher for that reason. However, I think the AP poll has a case for not doing so. That bowl win is great, but it was razor-close, and it is the only win Liberty posted this season over a winning team, a worse schedule than even BYU played. Coastal Carolina beat 2 rated teams and 5 winning teams. And Liberty already had an upset loss to an unranked team (8-4 North Carolina State) on their ledger. So I can give this one to the AP poll voters.

However, I don't see why Liberty should be ranked behind 6-2 Iowa (#16). After all, Iowa only defeated 1 winning team themselves, 4-3 Wisconsin (unranked), and that is not nearly as impressive a win as Liberty's over 11-1 Coastal Carolina, a higher-rated team. And Liberty's win came in a bowl game, giving it greater weight. Iowa's upset loss, to 2-4 Purdue, was also worse than Liberty's upset loss to 8-4 North Carolina State.

So we'll move Liberty ahead of Iowa. That puts Liberty just behind 7-2 Northwestern, who also suffered a worse upset loss than Liberty did. However, I think I can give this one to the AP poll, since unlike Iowa, Northwestern beat 3 winning teams. One of those teams is Iowa, and really, beating the #16 team (original Iowa rating) by 1 point on the road is fairly comparable to beating the #14 team (original Coastal Carolina rating) in overtime on a neutral field, and since that was Liberty's only accomplishment, we can easily say that Northwestern accomplished more than Liberty did this season.

Liberty and Iowa switch places.

North Carolina and Miami (Florida)

This is an issue I have been complaining about for weeks now. Here's what I wrote last time: I know 8-4 North Carolina whipped 8-3 Miami (Florida) 62-26 in their regular season finale, but as impressive as that score is, the fact is that it is just one game, and Miami has taken 3 losses and North Carolina 4. More to the point, Miami defeated two teams that beat UNC this year (Florida State and Virginia), and so they are one game better than UNC on the season even with the head-to-head result. As such, Miami should be ranked ahead of North Carolina.

The average ranking of North Carolina and Miami is 20, where Oklahoma State is ranked, and since Oklahoma State defeated Miami in their bowl game, we'll put the 2 teams right behind Oklahoma State.

We have another ratings shift: Texas #18, Oklahoma State #19, Miami #20, North Carolina #21, and Southern Cal #22.

A Word on Iowa vs. Texas

At this point, 6-2 Iowa sits right in front of 7-3 Texas and 8-3 Oklahoma State, and I have a hard time seeing Iowa ranked ahead of these teams (and the same goes for Northwestern, for that matter). Iowa took a loss to a losing team (2-4 Purdue), and they did not beat a rated team this season. Texas also took an upset loss, but to a 6-4 nearly-rated team (TCU), and unlike Iowa, Texas beat a rated team (Oklahoma State). I would certainly rate Texas and Oklahoma State higher than Iowa (and Northwestern) myself, but though it's a bit of a stretch, I think there is just enough reasoning to let the AP poll have its way here.

What is that reasoning? Well, first of all, Iowa's upset loss came in their opener, on the road, while Texas' upset loss came in game 3, at home, lessening the advantage Texas has here. Secondly, while Iowa posted just 1 close win over an unrated opponent, Texas produced 2 such poor performances, giving Iowa a slight performance advantage for the season.

So no adjustment here.

Indiana

Now that I have the back half of the top 25 set in place, I can turn my attention to the most overrated team in this year's AP poll, 6-2 Indiana (originally rated #12). Indiana is a lot like Iowa (now #17), another Big 10 team that finished 6-2. Both teams took an upset loss to an opponent with a losing record, and neither team defeated a rated opponent, the top accomplishment for each being a win over 4-3 Wisconsin in their regular season finales. There is just one relevant difference between them: Iowa's upset loss came in their season opener, while Indiana's came 26-20 to 4-5 Mississippi in the Outback Bowl. And that timing is a pretty crucial difference.

There will never be a year when a team that beats no rated opponents and loses its bowl game to a 4-5 team can possibly be rated #12.

So how far do we drop them? Well, obviously they belong behind Iowa. On top of the fact that Iowa's upset loss came in their opener and Indiana's came in their bowl game, Iowa beat Wisconsin by 21, Indiana by 8.

And when discussing Iowa vs. Texas above, I gave 2 reasons for letting the AP poll keep Iowa rated higher than Texas, and neither reason applies for Indiana. The first was the timing of Iowa's upset loss, but in Indiana's case, their upset loss was far worse in every way than Texas' upset loss. The second reason was the fact that Iowa posted 1 close win over an unrated opponent, Texas 2, but Indiana also posted 2 close wins over unrated teams. So unlike Iowa, there is no good reason for Indiana to be rated higher than Texas. And Oklahoma State, who sits behind Texas, has an upset win (over #7 Iowa State) to balance out their 1 upset loss (to 6-4 TCU), so their relevant record is effectively a game better than that of Indiana. In addition, OSU defeated 8-3 Miami (now #20) and 6-3 Tulsa (just outside top 25 at #27), so they've accomplished far more than Indiana.

Just behind Oklahoma State sits Miami (Florida), and here Indiana's freefall is halted, because I think it is logically viable to rank Indiana ahead of Miami. I think it would also be logically viable to not rank Indiana at all, but given that AP poll voters clearly love Indiana, our job is to figure out the highest rating logically possible for the Hoosiers, and I think this is it. Miami's upset loss came in their regular season finale, and while it came to a rated team (8-4 North Carolina, now #21), the result was super-ugly, 62-26 at home, so there's no certainty that that is a worse result than Indiana losing to 4-5 Ole Miss 26-20 on a neutral field. Miami was stomped twice, Indiana never, and Miami had 3 close wins over unrated opponents, Indiana 2, so Indiana has a performance advantage. And like Indiana, Miami did not beat a rated team. Finally, the ACC was simply terrible this season, 0-6 in bowl games (Big 10 was 3-2).

So Indiana drops back behind Oklahoma State, to #19. All the teams that had been ranked between Indiana and Miami move up a spot.

Fixed AP Poll Top 25

As I noted at the top of this article, no team falls out of this fixed AP poll top 25, the first time that has happened since the fixed 1985 AP poll, 35 years ago! However, it should be noted that at that time, the AP poll ranked just 20 teams, so in addition to fixing the ranking, I was expanding it by 5 teams, and those 5 extra slots provided a buffer that made it easier for AP-ranked teams to remain ranked in the fixed (and expanded) rankings. The last AP poll that saw no ranked team fall behind a team from outside the AP's list of teams was 1969, more than 50 years ago!

As I promised earlier, I'll be going into more detail on the teams that are ranked for the first time this year, below the following top 25.

And here it is, your fixed final AP poll for the 2020 season, now logically coherent.

1) Alabama 13-0	--
2) Ohio State 7-1	--
3) Clemson 10-2	--
4) Notre Dame 10-2	+1
5) Texas A&M 9-1	-1
6) Oklahoma 9-2	--
7) Iowa State 9-3	+2
8) Florida 8-4	+5
9) Georgia 8-2	-2
10) Cincinnati 9-1	-2
11) Coastal Carolina 11-1	+3
12) Brigham Young 11-1	-1
13) Louisiana 10-1	+2
14) Northwestern 7-2	-4
15) Liberty 10-1	+2
16) Iowa 6-2	--
17) Texas 7-3	+2
18) Oklahoma State 8-3	+2
19) Indiana 6-2	-7
20) Miami (Florida) 8-3	+2
21) North Carolina 8-4	-3
22) Southern Cal 5-1	-1
23) Ball State 7-1	--
24) San Jose State 7-1	--
25) Buffalo 6-1	--

All Those First-Timers!

As I said at the beginning of this article, five teams finished ranked in this year's AP poll that had never been ranked before: #14 Coastal Carolina, #15 Louisiana, #17 Liberty, #23 Ball State, and #25 Buffalo. That is an enormous amount of first-timers in the AP poll, the most since 1945, fully 75 years ago. And that was only the 10th edition of the AP poll, so it was obviously a lot easier for such a thing to happen at that time.

But one of this year's new teams, Louisiana, has actually finished ranked in a fixed AP poll before (#16 for 1943), so there are only 4 first-timers as far as fixed AP polls are concerned. And in 1945, all of the five teams that were ranked for the first time by the AP poll had already been ranked in a fixed AP poll for a previous season. So the last time a fixed AP poll top 25 had 4 or more first-timers is 1944: Oklahoma State #6, Wake Forest #17, North Carolina State #22, Virginia #23, and Colorado #25.

But what happens if you look at my hypothetical AP poll top 25s for 1901-1935, before there was an AP poll? Well, you'll find that 3 of the fixed AP poll first-timers for 1944 had been ranked in a top 25 before there was an AP poll: Virginia at #14 for 1915, and Colorado #22 and North Carolina State #23 for 1909.

So when is the last time a top 25 featured at least 4 teams that had never been ranked in a top 25 before? Well, you just need to go one year earlier, to the fixed AP poll for 1943: Pacific #12, Louisiana #16, Southwestern (Texas) #17, and Arkansas A&M #18.

And in addition to all these first-timers we're seeing this year, Iowa State's #7 finish in the fixed top 25 represents by far their best showing ever, their previous best being #17 in the fixed AP poll for 1976.

Fixed AP Polls
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