1)
Georgia 12-0
2) Michigan 12-0
3) Texas Christian 12-0
4) Southern Cal 11-1
5) Ohio State 11-1
6) Alabama 10-2
7) Penn State 10-2
8) Tennessee 10-2
9) Washington 10-2
10) Kansas State 9-3
11) Clemson 10-2
12) Utah 9-3
13) Louisiana State 9-3
14) Florida State 9-3
15) Oregon 9-3
16) Oregon State 9-3
17) UCLA 9-3
18) Tulane 10-2
19) Notre Dame 8-4
20) South Carolina 8-4
21) Texas 8-4
22) North Carolina 9-3
23) Central Florida 9-3
24) Texas San Antonio 10-2
25) Mississippi State 8-4
Others Receiving Votes
Mississippi 8-4
Troy 10-2
North Carolina State 8-4
Cincinnati 9-3
Boise State 9-3
Purdue 8-4
Pittsburgh 8-4
Coastal Carolina 9-2
Air Force 9-3
South Alabama 10-2
Illinois 8-4
Duke 8-4
Minnesota 8-4
Iowa 7-5
Fresno State 8-4
James Madison 8-3
Wake Forest 7-5
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If
you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football
poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top
25
until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no
more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for
ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before
that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.
For
example, I think that 9-3 Utah is overrated at #12, given that all 3 of
their losses have come to lower-ranked teams. However, if Utah defeats
#4 Southern Cal in the PAC 12 title game this week, then the
sportswriters will have been proven right, and if Utah loses, then the
Utes will drop
in the ratings anyway, so this issue is likely to take care of itself
one way or the other.
Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late
enough
in
the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I
will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be
outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more
games
were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other
poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.
Playoff Committee Rankings
UPDATE
-- The College Football Playoff rankings are not different enough from the AP poll this
season to merit a separate discussion of their choices.
I
will also add some comments on
the
playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out
on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address
that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already
addressing below.
Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final
post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like
I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will
not be fully commenting on
the playoff committee's top 25s.
Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...
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Ohio State and Southern Cal
11-1
Ohio State (#5) took their one loss to #2 Michigan, while 11-1 USC (#4)
took theirs to #12 Utah. And all 11 of OSU's wins have come by more
than a touchdown, while USC has posted 4 close wins, 2 of them over
losing teams. Ohio State should definitely be rated higher.
Tennessee > Alabama
10-2 Tennessee (#8)
beat 10-2 Alabama (#6) this season, and they should therefore be rated
higher. Yes, Tennessee was upset 63-38 by South Carolina, but Alabama
was upset as well, by LSU -- a team Tennessee beat 40-13. There is no
good reason for Alabama to be rated higher than the Vols.
Penn State
10-2 Penn State (#7) has taken no upset losses at all, and should
probably be rated higher than Alabama as well. On the other hand, PSU
hasn't beaten a rated team, so maybe the poll voters are on to
something here.
Kansas State, Tulane, and Texas
9-3 Kansas State strikes me as extremely
overrated at #10. They've been beaten by #18 Tulane (10-2) and #21
Texas (8-4), both games at home, and they have not beaten a single
rated or even nearly-rated opponent (and there are 17 teams in the
"Others Receiving Votes" section of the poll). KSU really needs to be
dropped back behind Tulane, who beat them 17-10. If you do that, KSU
can remain ranked higher than Texas since the Longhorns have taken 2
upset losses to unranked teams.
Alternatively, you could rank the teams like so:
Texas > Kansas State > Tulane. Texas won 34-27 at KSU this year,
and though they have taken 2 upset losses, if KSU is ranked ahead of
Tulane, then KSU has taken 1 upset loss (to Tulane). Texas' win over
KSU makes them even, and the head-to-head tiebreaker goes to Texas. And
if Texas is ranked ahead of KSU, then KSU can be ranked higher than
Tulane, who has also taken 2 upset losses.
I have to say, though, that I find it somewhat dubious that any of these 3 teams should be ranked in the top 25.
Washington and the PAC 12
With
2 upset losses, one of them to an unranked team, 10-2 Washington seems
a bit overrated at #9. There is a group of PAC 12 teams behind Southern
Cal that is hard to separate one from the next, as I don't see much of
a clear difference in power level between them. Those teams are #9
Washington, #12 Utah, #15 Oregon, #16 Oregon State, and #17 UCLA. I'm
thinking that the 2 teams that have a bit of separation from this
"PAC," Washington and Utah, should be dropped back closer to the pack.
But
more than that, I think that there are a couple of head-to-head results
that could be better reflected in the rankings of these teams:
Oregon State > Oregon
These teams are both 9-3, and Oregon State just beat Oregon 38-34 in
their regular season finale. I find it very strange that OSU (#16)
should be rated directly behind Oregon (#15) a day after that game.
Just bump 'em one more place, sportswriters! They've earned it where it
matters, on the field of play (The College Football Playoff rankings got this one right).
UCLA > Utah
As stated in the intro, I think that 9-3 Utah is overrated at #12. Utah
did defeat #16 Oregon State, but they lost to #15 Oregon (who should be
rated behind Oregon State, as covered above) and to #17 UCLA, and I
think that the Utes should be dropped back behind UCLA. Of course, as I
said in the intro, this issue should resolve itself this week, as Utah
will have proven the poll voters right if they beat #4 Southern Cal in
the PAC 12 title game, and if they lose that game, then they will drop
in the rankings anyway.
Notre Dame > Clemson
#19 Notre Dame may be 8-4 and #11 Clemson 10-2, but don't be fooled by those straight records:
Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Clemson. The Irish beat Clemson
35-14, very decisive, and 2 of Dame's losses came to #4 USC and #5 Ohio
State. Because those teams are ranked much higher than Clemson, and
because Clemson has not themselves defeated (or played) comparably
ranked teams, those games should be irrelevant when comparing Notre
Dame to Clemson. And if you ignore those games, Notre Dame is
effectively a 2-loss team, just like Clemson, and the head-to-head
result should be heeded.
Straight records just don't mean much when teams play very different schedules. Notre Dame and Clemson have the same relevant record, and that's what matters.
It should also be noted that 9-3 Florida State is ranked #14, and
Clemson has beaten them this year, so if you drop Clemson behind Notre
Dame, where they belong, then FSU needs to be dropped as well, behind
Clemson.
North Carolina State > North Carolina
8-4
North Carolina State (#27 in the "Others Receiving Votes" section) just
defeated 9-3 North Carolina (#22), and I think they should be rated
higher. NC State has one more loss because they played (and lost to)
#11 Clemson, a team that UNC has not played. Of course, UNC gets their
shot at Clemson in the ACC title game this week, so this is another
issue that ought to resolve itself. If UNC wins, then they deserve to
be rated higher than NC State, and if they lose, then they will drop
back behind NC State anyway.
Both North Carolina State and North Carolina strike me as weak inclusions in a top 25.
Central Florida
9-3
Central Florida (#23) is overrated. They've taken ugly losses to East
Carolina and Navy, and I don't think they should be rated higher than
7-5 Louisville, who also beat them. That's 3 losses to unranked teams
-- how is UCF a top 25 team?
And even if UCF beats #18 Tulane in the AAC title game this week, they
should still not be ranked in a top 25. Such a result will only tell us
that Tulane should also not be ranked (which I suspect to already be the case, as discussed above).
Texas San Antonio
10-2
Texas San Antonio (#24) is by far the worst inclusion in the top 25.
They have not beaten a ranked or nearly-ranked team, or any halfway
decent opponent at all, and they lost to unranked 7-5 Houston. And
their performance has been lousy, as they have 5 times won close games
over weak-ass teams. Any voter putting this team in their top 25 should
not be voting at all (this is another issue that the College Football Playoff rankings got right).
Mississippi, Kentucky, Florida, and Washington State
Here
is a group of teams that might be better inclusions in a top 25 than
some of the above teams. 8-4 Mississippi, 7-5 Kentucky, and 6-6 Florida
have, as a group, defeated 3 currently rated teams, as well as 10-2
Troy (#27). 7-5 Washington State has not beaten a rated team, or even
nearly rated, but all 5 of their losses have come to teams ranked in
the top 16, and they have a better relevant record than every team currently ranked #18-25.
2022 TipTop 25
My
little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based
entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, is now retired for
the season. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.
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