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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 27, 2016

1) Alabama 12-0
2) Ohio State 11-1
3) Clemson 11-1
4) Washington 11-1
5) Michigan 10-2
6) Wisconsin 10-2
7) Oklahoma 9-2
8) Penn State 10-2
9) Colorado 10-2
10) Southern Cal 9-3
11) Oklahoma State 9-2
12) Florida State 9-3
13) Western Michigan 12-0
14) West Virginia 9-2
15) Florida 8-3
16) Louisville 9-3
17) Stanford 9-3
18) Auburn 8-4
19) Virginia Tech 9-3
20) Navy 9-2
21) Louisiana State 7-4
22) Iowa 8-4
23) Nebraska 9-3
24) Pittsburgh 8-4
South Florida 10-2

Others Receiving Votes
Houston 9-3
Boise State 10-2
Utah 8-4
Washington State 8-4
Texas A&M 8-4
Air Force 9-3
Temple 9-3
Tennessee 8-4
Troy 9-2
Miami (Florida) 8-4
Georgia Tech 8-4
Tulsa 9-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

Southern Cal

For example, 9-3 Southern Cal is currently ranked #10, one spot behind 10-2 Colorado, but the Trojans defeated Colorado 21-17, and should therefore be rated ahead of the Buffaloes. Now, USC does have 2 upset losses (to Stanford and Utah), but they made up for one of those with an upset win over #4 Washington, who is ranked higher than both teams.

However, Colorado gets their shot at Washington in the PAC 12 title game this week, and if Colorado wins, then they will have proven the sportswriters correct, and will have earned a higher rating than that of Southern Cal. It should be noted, though, that in that case, USC should be ranked ahead of Washington in the next week's poll.

Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings to this article after that top 25 comes out on Tuesday, but only if there is anything in those rankings to address that is different than the issues with the AP poll that I am already addressing below. So far, the differences between the playoff committee rankings and the AP poll's top 25 have been minor. Unfortunately, the committee largely suffers from the same logic problems the AP poll does-- they rely far too much on teams' straight records when ranking them, and they place far too much emphasis on the last game played for each team.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fully fixing any of their rankings like I will the final AP poll top 25 in January.

Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State

10-2 Michigan (#5) is properly rated higher than 10-2 Wisconsin (#6) and 10-2 Penn State (#8), but I suspect that the winner of the Big 10 title game between Wisconsin and PSU will move past Michigan in next week's poll, especially if that team is Wisconsin. I would just like to make it clear that this should not happen: Michigan has already beaten both teams, and should remain ranked ahead of both regardless of what happens in the Big 10 title game.

Penn State

However, while 10-2 Penn State (#8) should not be ranked higher than Michigan, they are underrated here. To be specific, they should be rated higher than 9-2 Oklahoma (#7). Why? Because Penn State owns a win over #2 Ohio State, who is ranked higher than both teams. PSU and Oklahoma both have 2 losses, but that win over the Buckeyes gives PSU a better relevant record. Frankly, I think that PSU should be rated higher than Oklahoma even if PSU loses this week (to #6 Wisconsin) and OU wins (over #11 Oklahoma State), because PSU would still have the better relevant record.

Western Michigan

Most of the time, AP poll voters overrate "little big teams" with strong straight records. I've thrown many a little big team out of final fixed polls over the years, and last year, all 3 of the little big teams the AP poll rated were overrated, so all 3 dropped in that fixed poll. This year is highly unusual, because not only is 12-0 Western Michigan underrated in the AP poll, but at least 3 other little big teams are underrated as well, and as many as 9 little big teams total may be underrated! More on some of the others below, but right now let's talk about unbeaten Western Michigan, who is currently rated #13.

12-0 WMU has obviously taken no upset losses, while the teams ranked just ahead of them, 9-3 Florida State and 9-2 Oklahoma State, have each taken 2 upset losses, and that's a significant difference. Let's cut to the chase and compare WMU to Oklahoma State. OSU has played a tougher schedule than WMU, no doubt, and they have beaten 2 rated opponents while WMU has beaten none, but those 2 wins don't mean much considering the fact that OSU has taken 2 losses to unranked opponents.

Now, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy, campaigning for a playoff spot, has been making the case that one of OSU's upset losses should be disregarded. You may recall that early in the season, referees incorrectly gave Central Michigan one untimed play, with which they threw a miracle touchdown pass to beat OSU 30-27. But here's the thing: that one untimed play would not have mattered if OSU had led CMU by more than 27-24 at that point. Like, say, Western Michigan, who just a few weeks later led that same team, Central Michigan, by a tad more than that at the same point in the game: 49-10 to be exact. Clearly, CMU would have needed more than one gift touchdown, and more than 5 gift touchdowns in fact, to beat Western Michigan!

So even if we were to pretend that the incorrect call had never happened, we still have another significant difference between OSU and WMU: OSU should have beaten Central Michigan 27-24 at home, and WMU did beat that same team 49-10 on the road. Heck, no team has gotten within a touchdown of WMU in their last 11 games straight, during which time OSU has not only lost to 2 unranked teams, but they've also had another 4 teams, 3 of them unranked, come within a touchdown of them!

This isn't even close. So why is Oklahoma State rated higher than Western Michigan? Have voters even really looked at these teams?

Houston and Louisville

On to our next underrated "little big team." Remember way back when 9-3 Houston slaughtered 9-3 Louisville 36-10? Less than 2 weeks ago? Apparently too far back in time for your average sportswriter to remember, but I tell you, that actually happened. So why is 9-3 Louisville ranked #16 and 9-3 Houston not ranked at all?

Maybe it's because Louisville owns an impressive upset win over #12 Florida State? Well, except that Houston tops that with an even more impressive upset win over #7 Oklahoma. So maybe it's because Louisville plays a tougher schedule, being in a major conference and all? Well, except that FSU is the only rated team Louisville has beaten, and more than that, FSU is the only team Louisville has beaten that even has a winning record! Houston has beaten 3 teams with winning records, 2 of them in the AP poll's own top 25, and another one close (9-3 Tulsa).

The relative rating of these 2 teams is simply atrocious. Houston should be rated ahead of Louisville, whom, again, they just beat 36-10 less than 2 weeks ago.

Stanford

9-3 Stanford is underrated at #17. They have one upset loss, but remember that 9-3 Florida State (#12) and 9-2 Oklahoma State (#11) each have 2 upset losses. Stanford also owns an upset win over #10 Southern Cal, so Stanford is effectively 2 games better than FSU and OSU, and needless to say they should be rated higher than both.

South Florida and Navy

Our next underrated "little big teams" are 10-2 South Florida (#24) and 9-2 Navy (#20), both of whom, like Houston, are in the American Athletic Conference. Now first of all, 10-2 South Florida defeated 9-2 Navy 52-45, and I think they should therefore be rated higher than Navy. Furthermore, there are a bunch of teams ranked ahead of USF and Navy that should not be. With USF moved ahead of Navy, both teams have just one upset loss, while several of the teams ranked ahead of them have 2 or even 3 upset losses.

Take #15 Florida (8-3), for example. They have taken 2 losses to unranked opponents, and they have only beaten 1 team that is ranked, or even close to ranked. I'd move USF and Navy ahead of them.

Virginia Tech

9-3 Virginia Tech, rated #19, is probably the most overrated team in the AP poll. They do own a win over #24 Pittsburgh, but unfortunately they also own 3 losses to unranked opponents. Virginia Tech should be dropped from the top 25, and yes, that means that they should not even be rated higher than Pittsburgh.

This may seem confusing, since Virginia Tech is 9-3, Pitt is 8-4, and VT beat them 39-36. So let's go over this game-by-game. Yes, VT beat Pitt, so that gives them a 1-game lead over Pitt. Pitt took another 2 losses to unrated teams, but VT took 3 losses to unrated teams, so that makes VT and Pitt even, with VT having the head-to-head tiebreaker. Pitt's other loss came to #11 Oklahoma State, but since OSU is ranked higher than VT, that loss is irrelevant when comparing VT to Pitt. Pitt has 2 upset wins, over #3 Clemson and #8 Penn State, very impressive, and since both teams are ranked higher than VT, that leaves Pitt effectively 2 games better than VT on the season. Pitt should therefore be ranked higher.

But Virginia Tech should be dropped further than that: they belong behind 8-4 Tennessee (outside the top 25 at #33), who beat them 45-24.

Boise State

Finally, we have a "little big team" that is overrated. 10-2 Boise State didn't quite make the AP poll's top 25, but they're at #27, well within striking distance, and there are a number of teams that should be ranked ahead of them, and therefore closer to making the final top 25 should some places open up. First of all, we have 8-4 Utah, who sits right behind Boise State at #28. Boise State and Utah each have 2 losses to lower-ranked teams, but the difference between the 2 is that Utah has beaten a ranked team (#10 Southern Cal) and Boise State has not. Utah should be ranked higher.

Then there is 9-3 Air Force (#31), who defeated Boise State 27-20 in their finale. Now, Air Force has taken 3 upset losses to Boise State's 2, but AF also owns a win over a rated team (#20 Navy), which makes up for one of their upset losses. I think AF should be rated ahead of Boise State. Of course, I also think that 8-4 Wyoming, who defeated both teams, should be rated ahead of both.

But that's just the start. Texas A&M and Tennessee should be rated ahead of Boise State, and so should a trio of other "little big teams": Temple, Tulsa, and Memphis. Speaking of which...

Temple, Tulsa, and Memphis

We've already gone over a trio of American Athletic Conference teams who are underrated (#20 Navy, #24 South Florida, and #26 Houston), and here we have another such trio, giving us half a dozen in all. Quite a year for this conference. I don't know if 9-3 Temple (#32), 9-3 Tulsa (#37), and/or 8-4 Memphis (not rated at all) should be rated in the top 25, but I can tell you that all are underrated where they sit right now.

Certainly they belong ahead of teams like Boise State (as mentioned above) and Air Force (9-3, #31). Air Force, after all, has taken a huge 3 losses to unranked teams, and their upset win over #20 Navy only makes up for one of them. Temple has taken 2 losses to unranked teams (one of them being Memphis), and they also have an upset win over a rated team (#24 South Florida). That leaves Temple effectively a game better than Air Force for the season, but if you rate Memphis ahead of Temple, as I would, then Temple has just one loss to a lower-ranked team, making them effectively 2 games better than Air Force.

Memphis has also taken 2 losses to unranked teams, and one of those is to Tulsa, who should also be ranked ahead of Air Force (as discussed next). Memphis also owns a win over a team that is ranked higher than Air Force, #26 Houston.

And finally we have 9-3 Tulsa, whose 3 losses all came to teams ranked higher than Air Force. AF's 3 losses to lower-ranked teams therefore leave them well behind Tulsa. Or at least, Air Force should be well behind Tulsa.

North Carolina

8-4 North Carolina should not be ranked at all, so the AP poll got that right, but a couple of voters gave 8-4 Miami (Florida) and 8-4 Georgia Tech a few poll points, putting those teams at #35 and #36, and UNC, who got no poll points at all, at least belongs ahead of those 2 teams. UNC beat Miami 20-13 on the road, and they beat Georgia Tech 48-20 at home.

2016 TipTop 25

My little experiment, a top 25 that began with a preseason ranking based entirely on picking teams at random out of a hat, is now retired for the season. You can check out the last top 25 in that experiment here.

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