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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 8, 2013

1) Florida State 13-0
2) Auburn 12-1
3) Alabama 11-1
4) Michigan State 12-1
5) Stanford 11-2
6) Baylor 11-1
7) Ohio State 12-1
8) South Carolina 10-2
9) Missouri 11-2
10) Oregon 10-2
11) Oklahoma 10-2
12) Clemson 10-2
13) Oklahoma State 10-2
14) Louisiana State 9-3
15) Central Florida 11-1
16) Arizona State 10-3
17) UCLA 9-3
18) Louisville 11-1
19) Wisconsin 9-3
20) Texas A&M 8-4
21) Fresno State 11-1
22) Duke 10-3
23) Georgia 8-4
24) Northern Illinois 12-1
25) Notre Dame 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
Southern Cal 9-4
Iowa 8-4
Miami (Florida) 9-3
Vanderbilt 8-4
Texas 8-4
Cincinnati 9-3
Bowling Green 10-3
Washington 8-4
Rice 10-3
North Dakota State 12-0 (FCS)
Minnesota 8-4

As I said in my comments on last week's AP college football poll, I will not be fixing the AP poll until after the final edition is released in January. In the meantime, I will just be commenting on some of the poll's more dubious ranking choices.

With bowl games still to be played, some of these dubious choices will sort themselves out, one way or the other. For example, below you will see that I think #23 Georgia (8-4) should be rated higher than #14 Louisiana State (9-3). However, if Georgia loses their bowl game to Nebraska, and LSU wins their bowl game over Iowa, the AP poll voters will have been proven correct. I also think that #16 Arizona State should be ranked higher than #15 Central Florida, but if UCF upsets #6 Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, then perhaps they will have earned a higher rating than ASU.

So I'll wait until all games have been played before fixing the AP poll.

Ohio State and Baylor

#7 Ohio State (12-1) and #6 Baylor (11-1) each have one loss, but OSU's loss came to #4 Michigan State, ranked higher than both teams, and Baylor's loss came to #13 Oklahoma State (and in a 49-17 rout), ranked lower than both teams. That right there makes it very difficult to see Baylor being rated higher than Ohio State.

I don't see anything in Baylor's wins to make up for that fact. Both teams played weak schedules and both teams performed very highly against those schedules. But if Ohio State loses the Orange Bowl to Clemson, I suppose the AP poll voters will have been proven correct here.

Missouri and South Carolina

#9 Missouri (11-2) and #8 South Carolina (10-2) each have 2 losses, and South Carolina defeated Missouri in Columbia. However, while these teams each have 2 losses, their records are not actually equal. One of Missouri's losses came to #2 Auburn, whom South Carolina did not play, and who is obviously ranked much higher than South Carolina. SC's 2 losses came to #23 Georgia and to unranked Tennessee, both of whom Missouri defeated (and impressively, 41-26 and 31-3). Therefore, Missouri is effectively one game better than South Carolina on the season (since SC's head-to-head win only makes up for one of the 2 losses they took to teams Missouri defeated).

On the other hand, this issue is complicated by South Carolina's tougher schedule. SC has defeated #12 Clemson and #15 Central Florida, while Missouri's best win came over #20 Texas A&M.

But back on the first hand, Missouri has easily outperformed South Carolina. On top of Missouri handily beating both teams that beat South Carolina, they only had one close win all season, 28-21 over #20 Texas A&M. South Carolina struggled to beat Kentucky 35-28 (Missouri beat them 48-17) and Florida 19-14 (Missouri beat them 36-17).

Clemson and Oklahoma

#12 Clemson and #11 Oklahoma are both 10-2, but Clemson's losses came to teams ranked #1 and #8, while Oklahoma's losses came to teams ranked #6 and #30. It's that last one, Oklahoma's 36-20 loss to unrated Texas, that is most damaging here.

It seems likely that Oklahoma is going to get stomped by #2 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl anyway, so this ranking may well sort itself out.

Georgia and LSU

I covered this issue last week. Basically, #23 Georgia (8-4) should be rated higher than #14 Louisiana State (9-3) based on their head-to-head win over LSU. Georgia has an extra loss because they played a tougher schedule. But as I said above, if LSU wins their bowl game and Georgia loses theirs, this rating will have been proven correct. On the other hand, if both teams win or both teams lose, this may be an issue I'll have to attend to when fixing the final AP poll in January.

Arizona State and Central Florida

#16 Arizona State (10-3) should be rated ahead of #15 Central Florida (11-1) on the basis of a massively tougher schedule and a massively superior performance on the season. Two of ASU's losses have come to #5 Stanford. They have beaten 2 rated teams, another 2 teams in the "Others Receiving Votes" section, and a total of 8 bowl-bound opponents. UCF has beaten 1 rated opponent, no one else that is close to rated, and a total of 4 bowl teams (counting 7-5 Penn State as a bowl team).

ASU had one close win over an unrated opponent, 20-19 at Utah, while UCF had 6 close wins over unrated opponents: at Penn State 34-31, at Memphis 24-17, Houston 19-14, at Temple 39-36, South Florida 23-20, and at SMU 17-13.

But as I said above, if UCF upsets #6 Baylor in their bowl game, this ranking looks better. And if ASU loses their bowl game to unrated Texas Tech, this ranking will have been proven correct.

Texas A&M and Wisconsin

#20 Texas A&M may be 8-4 and #19 Wisconsin 9-3, but all four of A&M's losses have come to teams that are ranked higher than Wisconsin. Wisconsin, on the other hand, lost their regular season finale to unrated 7-5 Penn State.

Wisconsin can earn this higher rating by beating #8 South Carolina in their bowl game. But they haven't earned it to this point.

Fresno State

To repeat what I said last week, 11-1 Fresno State (#21) has not played a rated opponent, or even one of the "others receiving votes." They've had close game after close game over this schedule of nobodies, including a 42-37 win over 1-11 Hawaii, and in their regular season finale, they lost 62-52 to San Jose State, then edged unrated 8-5 Utah State 24-17 in the Mountain West Championship Game. These results all reinforce the same thing: Fresno State is not a top 25 team.

Fresno State can earn this spot by beating #26 Southern Cal in their bowl game. Unfortunately, even if Fresno State loses that game, they still stand a strong chance of being rated in the final poll because they would still have an "impressive" 11-2 record. Fear not, though, because if that happens, you can count on me tossing them out of the top 25 when I fix it in January.

Duke

As I said last week, #22 Duke (10-3) is overrated (details in that article). And their trouncing at the hands of FSU on Saturday obviously left little impression on AP poll voters, because Duke hardly budged after that loss.

Duke will get a chance to prove their worth against #20 Texas A&M in their bowl game. I would hope that a loss there would finally send Duke out of the top 25, but bear in mind that Duke did beat #28 Miami-Florida (9-3), and should remain ranked ahead of them. On the other hand, if Miami upsets #18 Louisville, things get complicated. But Louisville hasn't beaten anyone, so even then I think the teams should probably be ranked Duke > Miami > Louisville.

Northern Illinois

After getting trounced by unrated 10-3 Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game, #24 Northern Illinois makes for a very dubious top 25 team, even if they are 12-1. They should remain ranked ahead of #27 Iowa, whom they defeated on the road to start the season, but #25 Notre Dame and #26 Southern Cal should be ranked higher than NIU (both have beaten top 10 teams). As should other teams, such as #33 Washington. NIU is playing a crap team in their bowl game (8-5 Utah State), so they won't get a chance to prove anything further, and I will almost certainly have to drop this team when I fix the final AP poll in January.

Sorry NIU, you had a great season going, but you just can't afford to get stomped in your finale when you don't play any rated teams.

Washington

I don't know what 8-4 Washington is doing way down at #33, when their season has been very similar to that of 8-4 Texas A&M, rated #20. Like Texas A&M, all 4 of Washington's losses have come to rated teams (#5, #10, #16, #17). They could logically be rated as high as #18, right behind UCLA. As I said last week, they have beaten 4 bowl-bound teams by an average score of 41-16, and all 8 of their wins came by more than a touchdown. Washington is easily the most underrated team in this poll.

On the other hand, maybe they'll drop their bowl game to unrated 8-4 Brigham Young and prove the AP poll correct.

Mississippi

Should 7-5 Mississippi be rated? I don't know, but logically, they could be. They were upset by 6-6 Mississippi State in their regular season finale, but they balanced that upset loss out with a win over #14 Louisiana State. Ole Miss plays unrated 7-5 Georgia Tech in their bowl game, which is worthless, and as such they will not make the AP poll's final top 25. And perhaps they shouldn't.

However, this much is certain: Ole Miss should be rated higher than #29 Vanderbilt (8-4) and #30 Texas (8-4), both of whom they defeated. That makes 3 teams rated higher than Ole Miss that Ole Miss beat. Senseless. Get with the program, writers!

Vanderbilt is close to the top 25, and if they beat 7-5 Houston in their bowl game, and if enough teams ahead of them lose for Vandy to squeak into the final AP top 25, I'll just have to drop them back behind Ole Miss when I fix it.

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