Tip Top 25 in helmets, smaller
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2018 TipTop 25 Week One

 Tulane is the first school picked at random from my hat

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that Tulane was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but they lost their opener 23-17 in overtime to previously unranked Wake Forest, so we will have a new team at the top of the list, as covered below.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason (and on where their opponents were ranked in the preseason). Eventually, where teams were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All unranked FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of Virginia Tech players 2018

Here is an MS Paint I made to commemorate our new #1 Virginia Tech. I pulled the Hokies out of my hat for the #3 slot in the preseason, but in this first week of games, #1 Tulane lost and #2 Illinois struggled to win 31-24, both against teams that were not ranked in the preseason top 50. On Monday night, Virginia Tech had a very impressive 24-3 win over Florida State, who had been ranked #17, so the Hokies easily rise to the top perch.

TipTop 25 After Week One Games

This year 9 of our preseason top 25 teams took a loss in week one, which ties a record that was set last year. However, one of those teams took 2 losses, so this year we set a new record with 10 losses taken by our preseason top 25. After the opening week's carnage, this week's TipTop 25 is as follows:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Virginia Tech 1-0 3 Won 24-3 at #17 Florida State (now unranked)
#2 Vanderbilt 1-0 4 Won 35-7 over Middle Tennessee
#3 Boise State 1-0 5 Won 56-20 at Troy
#4 Central Florida 1-0 7 Won 56-17 at #49 Connecticut
#5 Colorado 1-0 8 Won 45-13 over #36* Colorado State in Denver
#6 Oklahoma 1-0 22 Won 63-14 over #24 Florida Atlantic
#7 Virginia 1-0 11 Won 42-13 over an FCS team
#8 Florida 1-0 12 Won 53-6 over an FCS team
#9 Louisiana State 1-0 14 Won 33-17 over Miami (Florida) in Texas
#10 Georgia Southern 1-0 18 Won 37-6 over an FCS team
#11 Mississippi 1-0 32 Won 47-27 over #19 Texas Tech in Houston
#12 Buffalo 1-0 21 Won 48-10 over an FCS team
#13 Air Force 1-0 23 Won 38-0 over an FCS team
#14 Baylor 1-0 25 Won 55-27 over an FCS team
#15 Rutgers 1-0 45 Won 35-7 over #9 Texas State
#16 North Carolina State 1-0 20 Won 24-13 over an FCS team
#17 Wake Forest 1-0 Unranked Won 23-17 in OT at #1 Tulane
#18 Stanford 1-0 Unranked Won 31-10 over #10 San Diego State
#19 Arizona State 1-0 Unranked Won 49-7 over #15 Texas San Antonio
#20 Illinois 1-0 2 Won 31-24 over Kent State
#21 Auburn 1-0 13 Won 21-16 over Washington in Atlanta
#22 Tulane 0-1 1 Lost 23-17 in OT to unranked Wake Forest (now #17)
#23 Akron 0-0 27 Did not play
#24 Oregon 1-0 28 Won 58-24 over Bowling Green
#25 North Texas 1-0 Unranked Won 46-23 over #29 Southern Methodist

Notes on Changes to This Week's TipTop 25

First note is about that asterisk next to the #36 ranking of Colorado's opponent Colorado State. CSU had actually already played a game prior to their Colorado loss, and that was a loss too, so CSU was no longer, by the time Colorado played them, a legit #36 team. CSU lost their opener 43-34 at home to Hawaii, who was not ranked in our preseason top 50. Therefore, I am treating Colorado's win over CSU the same as any win over a non-top 50 team. Meaning it isn't worth much.

It's not just winning and losing that will cause a team to rise or drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team will cause a team to sink in the rankings as well. So Illinois, who had been ranked #2, drops to #20 due to their 7 point win over Kent State, who had not been ranked in our preseason top 50. Similarly, Rice, who had been rated #6, edged FCS team Prairie View 31-28 in their opener, so they would have fallen out of the rankings entirely even if they hadn't lost 45-27 to Houston the next week. On that point, Houston, like Colorado, doesn't get credit for beating a highly ranked team, as Rice's previous edging of Prairie View already had them out of the top 50 in my mind by the time Houston played them.

Illinois is hanging on to a spot in the top 25 due largely to their very high preseason ranking. But if Kent State does poorly over the next few weeks, that could cause Illinois to fall further in the rankings even if Illinois is doing well. Similarly, our previous #1 Tulane needs Wake Forest to do well to keep their hold in the top 25.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Boston College
#27 Washington State
#28 West Virginia
#29 South Florida
#30 Georgia
#31 Nebraska
#32 Hawaii
#33 Louisiana
#34 South Carolina
#35 Fresno State
#36 Duke
#37 Eastern Michigan
#38 Missouri
#39 Southern Cal

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week gives us the poorest slate of games we have ever seen for the TipTop 25. Our top 25 teams are playing 11 FCS opponents this week, and there are no games between top 25 teams. Best games are #5 Colorado at #31 Nebraska, #39 Southern Cal at #18 Stanford, and #30 Georgia at #34 South Carolina. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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