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Overrated
and Underrated College Football Teams of the Decade 2000-2009
So now that I've
repaired every AP poll of the last ten years, we can take a look at the
totals and see which teams have been most often overrated and
underrated by AP poll voters in the last decade. If you've been looking
through those repaired AP polls, then much of this will not be a
surprise.
Overrated
I expected to
see this list dominated by the "little big teams," and indeed, three
little bigs made the list (BYU, TCU, and Boise), but they hardly
dominated it. The surprise here, for me anyway, is the most overrated
team of the decade: Virginia
Tech. Virginia Tech was the team that was most often overrated (five
times) as well as the team that was overrated by the most total ranking
places. I suspect they are a victim of their conference. The ACC stands
out in this list in general, with 4 teams out of the ten, including 1st
and 3rd place. Here is the list, and the total number of ranking places
these teams were overrated 2000-2009:
1) Virginia Tech -17 (5 times)
2) Texas -15.5 (3 times)
3) Maryland -12 (2 times)
Illinois
"
"
5) Brigham Young -11.5 (2 times)
6) Texas Christian -10 (4 times)
7) Boise State -10 (3 times)
8) Oregon -7 (4 times)
9) Boston College -6.5 (3 times)
10) Wake Forest -6 (1 time)
Washington State " "
Minnesota
" "
Including
all teams, not just those on this list, the ACC was the most overrated
conference, its teams being overrated by a total of 27.5 ranking
places. Seven ACC teams were overrated, and four were underrated,
though not by very much (the underrated teams were Georgia
Tech, FSU, UNC, and Miami). The other 3 most overrated conferences were
the Mountain West (-22.5), the Big East (-19), and the WAC (-12). No
surprises there. Those happen to be the weakest conferences that consistently get teams rated at all.
Underrated
The list of most underrated teams of the decade is pretty much as I would expect:
dominated by the SEC. The AP poll is set up to give relatively equal
regional representation in its top 25, so when one conference is far
and away the best, you can expect that conference to be consistently
underrated. Six of the ten most underrated teams are from the SEC,
including the top 5! What is more interesting, however, are the four
non-SEC teams on this list: Penn
State, Purdue, Oklahoma State, and even one "little big team," Bowling
Green (thanks to just one season). Penn State, I would say, is the only
real surprise, given that they are a "name" team that you would not
expect to be underrated very often. Here is the list, and the total
number of ranking places these teams were underrated 2000-2009:
1) Auburn +22 (6 times)
2) Florida +19 (5 times)
3) Louisiana State +18.5 (5 times)
4) Tennessee +15 (4 times)
5) Georgia +14 (5 times)
6) Penn State +14 (3 times)
7) Purdue +14 (2 times)
8) Oklahoma State +13 (4 times)
9) Arkansas +12 (3 times)
10) Bowling Green +11 (1 time)
So
it is no surprise that when you include all teams, not just those on
this list, the SEC was by far the most underrated conference, by a
gigantic total of 109 ranking places! In fact, the SEC is the only
conference that was really underrated at all, at least to a degree that
is worth mentioning. And the SEC had only one team that was overrated: Mississippi.
I
would have guessed that Florida would be the most underrated team of
the decade, but Auburn was not a big surprise. They are historically
underrated, possibly the most underappreciated college football program
in history. Their 2004 team is the only SEC team with a perfect record
not to be named a national champion since... Auburn 1993. And Auburn
probably should have been voted #1 in 1983, but they were not. They
were voted #1 in 1957, when they were the only major unbeaten team, but
even then, the coaches and football writers association polls voted 9-1
Ohio State #1. So Auburn has long been the Rodney Dangerfield of
college football. As to why this is, I can't exactly say, but...
yawn... hmm. Sorry, I just forgot who and what I was writing about. Oh
well.