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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2020 Season

January 3, 2021

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Alabama and #3 Ohio State, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With more than a week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Alabama 12-0	Defeated #4 Notre Dame 31-14
2) Clemson 10-2	Lost to #3 Ohio State 49-28
3) Ohio State 7-0	Defeated #2 Clemson 49-28
4) Notre Dame 10-2	Lost to #1 Alabama 31-14
5) Texas A&M 9-1	Defeated #14 North Carolina 41-27
6) Cincinnati 9-1	Lost to #11 Georgia 24-21
7) Indiana 6-2	Lost to 5-5 Mississippi 26-20
8) Oklahoma 9-2	Defeated #10 Florida 55-20
9) Coastal Carolina 11-1	Lost to #23 Liberty 37-34 in OT
10) Florida 8-4	Lost to #8 Oklahoma 55-20
11) Georgia 8-2	Defeated #6 Cincinnati 24-21
12) Iowa State 9-3	Defeated #25 Oregon 34-17
13) Brigham Young 11-1	Defeated 6-4 Central Florida 49-23
14) North Carolina 8-4	Lost to #5 Texas A&M 41-27
15) Northwestern 7-2	Defeated 6-5 Auburn 35-19
16) Louisiana 10-1	Defeated 7-5 Texas-San Antonio 31-24
17) Iowa 6-2	Did not play
18) Miami (Florida) 8-3	Lost to 8-3 Oklahoma State 37-34
19) San Jose State 7-1	Lost to 7-1 Ball State 34-13
20) Texas 7-3	Defeated 4-2 Colorado 55-23
21) Southern Cal 5-1	Did not play
22) Tulsa 6-3	Lost to 4-7 Mississippi State 28-26
23) Liberty 10-1	Defeated #9 Coastal Carolina 37-34 in OT
24) North Carolina State 8-4	Lost to 5-6 Kentucky 23-21
25) Oregon 4-3	Lost to #12 Iowa State 34-17

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Oklahoma State 8-3	Defeated #18 Miami (Florida) 37-34
Army 9-3	Lost to 6-4 West Virginia 24-21
Buffalo 6-1	Defeated 7-3 Marshall 17-10
Central Florida 6-4	Lost to #13 Brigham Young 49-23
Marshall 7-3	Lost to 6-1 Buffalo 17-10
Ball State 7-1	Defeated #19 San Jose State 34-13
Washington 3-1	Did not play
Alabama Birmingham 6-3	Did not play
North Dakota State 1-0	Did not play
Texas Christian 6-4	Did not play
Memphis 8-3	Defeated 5-4 Florida Atlantic 25-10
Colorado 4-2	Lost to #20 Texas 55-23

Liberty > Coastal Carolina > Brigham Young

10-1 Liberty (#23) defeated 11-1 Coastal Carolina (#9) 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl, and Coastal Carolina defeated 11-1 Brigham Young (#13) 22-17 in December, and that is the order in which these 3 teams should be ranked. Unfortunately, BYU is likely to be ranked highest amongst these teams in the final AP poll. The big problem with this, aside from the head-to-head result, is that BYU has not beaten a team that will finish ranked, and in fact it looks like no team they beat will even be close to ranked in the final AP poll. As such, there is just no good reason to dismiss Coastal Carolina's victory over BYU.

On the other hand, there is some reason for Coastal Carolina to remain ranked ahead of Liberty. That is because Liberty has an upset loss to a team that will not be ranked in the final AP poll (8-4 North Carolina State), and Liberty's win over CC is actually their only victory over a team with a winning record (CC has beaten 5 winning teams, 2 ranked). Still, I think that Liberty should be ranked higher, as their win over CC came in a bowl game, giving it greater emphasis.

Florida > Georgia > Cincinnati

In my comments on the last December AP poll, I congratulated AP poll voters on correctly moving Florida ahead of Georgia, as the Gators beat the Dawgs 44-28 this year, thereby winning the East division of the SEC. Unfortunately, Georgia will be ranked much higher than Florida in the final AP poll, thanks to Florida's humiliating 55-20 bowl loss. However, that loss came to a team that will be ranked higher than Georgia in the final poll, and so it is not logical or fair to drop Florida back behind Georgia based on that result.

Florida is 8-4 and Georgia 8-2, but Florida's extra 2 losses came to Texas A&M and Oklahoma, both of whom will be rated higher than Georgia in the final poll. As such, those games are irrelevant when comparing Florida to Georgia. The two teams have the same relevant record, but Florida's head-to-head win over Georgia is the tie-breaker in their favor. And it was a dominating win.

Florida's big loss to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl was a poor performance, but it was one of only 2 poor performances by Florida this season, while Georgia suffered 3: their big loss to Florida, a close win over 4-7 Mississippi State at home, and a big loss to Alabama, a team Florida came within a touchdown of beating in the SEC title game.

Georgia did defeat previously unbeaten Cincinnati, who had been rated #6, in their bowl game, but let's not get carried away with that win. First of all, that is the only rated team Georgia will have beaten this season. And secondly, Cincinnati will have beaten no rated teams at all. For all we know, the Bearcats are no better than, say, #18 in power level, and so beating them is just not that big a deal.

Clemson > Notre Dame > Oklahoma

After losing handily in their playoff games, it is possible that #2 Clemson (10-2) and/or #4 Notre Dame (10-2) will fall back behind #8 Oklahoma (9-2) in the final AP poll, as Oklahoma won big over #10 Florida in the Cotton Bowl. However, this should not happen: Oklahoma has taken 2 upset losses to lower-ranked teams (one of them a losing team), while Clemson and Notre Dame have taken no upset losses this season, losing only to each other and to the national championship contenders.

Indiana

#7 Indiana (6-2) is going to fall quite a bit following their bowl loss to 5-5 Mississippi, but I doubt that it will be far enough. Indiana does not have a win over a team that will be rated, and it is unlikely that any team they beat will even be close, so Indiana has accomplished very little this year, which makes it all the harder to reconcile their bowl loss to an unrated team.

Oklahoma State

8-3 Oklahoma State will end up ranked in the final poll thanks to their bowl win over #18 Miami (Florida), but I doubt they will be ranked as highly as they should be. They did take an upset loss to an unranked team (6-4 Texas Christian), but that is balanced out by their big upset win over Iowa State, whom I expect to be ranked in the final poll's top 10. OSU lost in overtime to Texas, and they ought to be rated right behind the Longhorns. When I fix the final AP poll, I suspect that I'll be moving Oklahoma State up past the likes of Southern Cal, North Carolina, and/or Iowa, all of whom have taken upset losses that were not balanced out by upset wins.

The Big 12 went 5-0 in bowl games this year, and they will have the best record of any conference against nonconference opponents this season.

Miami (Florida) and North Carolina

This is an issue I have been complaining about for weeks now. I'll just paraphrase what I wrote last time: I know 8-4 North Carolina whipped 8-3 Miami (Florida) 62-26 in their regular season finale, but as impressive as that score is, the fact is that it is just one game, and Miami has taken 3 losses and North Carolina 4. More to the point, Miami defeated two teams that beat UNC this year (Florida State and Virginia), and so they are one game better than UNC on the season even with the head-to-head result. As such, Miami should be ranked ahead of North Carolina.

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