1) Alabama 12-1
2) Michigan 12-1
3) Georgia 12-1
4) Cincinnati 13-0
5) Notre Dame 11-1
6) Baylor 11-2
7) Ohio State 10-2
8) Mississippi 10-2
9) Oklahoma State 11-2
10) Utah 10-3
11) Michigan State 10-2
12) Brigham Young 10-2
13) Pittsburgh 11-2
14) Oklahoma 10-2
15) Oregon 10-3
16) Louisiana 12-1
17) Iowa 10-3
18) North Carolina State 9-3
19) Clemson 9-3
20) Wake Forest 10-3
21) Houston 11-2
22) Arkansas 8-4
23) Texas A&M 8-4
24)
Texas-San Antonio 12-1
25) Kentucky 9-3
Others Receiving Votes
Utah State 10-3
Wisconsin 8-4
San Diego State 11-2
Minnesota 8-4
Purdue 8-4
Louisiana Tech 3-9
Appalachian State 10-2
Army 8-3
Mississippi State 7-5
Penn State 7-5
Northern Illinois 9-4
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If
you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football
poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top
25
until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no
more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for
ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before
that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.
For
example, I think that #3 Georgia should be rated higher than #2
Michigan (reasoning below). However, Georgia will be playing
Michigan in the Orange Bowl anyway, and if they win, they will be
ranked higher in the final AP poll, and if they lose, the poll voters will
be proven right, and Michigan will remain ranked higher. In other
words, one way or another, this issue will sort itself out.
Obviously, while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late
enough
in
the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I
will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be
outright errors if the season had ended this last weekend, and no more
games
were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other
poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.
Playoff Committee Rankings
Last week
the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings were worse than the AP
poll, but this week the two are equal. The AP poll did a better job on
these 4 issues: Pitt/BYU, Iowa, Wake Forest, and Kentucky/Texas A&M. The CFP committee did a better job on these 4 issues: Ohio State/Baylor, Michigan State/Utah, Louisiana, and San Diego State/Utah State/UTSA.
Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final
post-bowl top 25, I will not be fixing any of their rankings like
I will the final AP poll top 25 in January, and for that reason, I will
not be fully commenting on
the playoff committee's top 25.
Now let's get to commenting on the problems with the latest AP poll...
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Georgia
As
noted above, I think that #3 Georgia should be rated higher than #2
Michigan. Georgia's only loss, of course, came to #1 Alabama, who is rated
higher than Michigan, while Michigan's loss came to #11 Michigan State.
Luckily, these 2 teams are playing in the Orange Bowl, so as I said
above, this issue will sort itself out. Baylor
Because they have taken 2 upset losses, #6 Baylor (11-2) has a worse relevant record
than do #7 Ohio State (10-2) and #8 Mississippi (10-2), each of whom
has taken just one upset loss. For that reason, I think that Baylor
should be ranked behind both teams. Baylor has also performed less well
than these teams, posting 3 close wins (touchdown or less) over
unranked opponents, while Mississippi had 1 and Ohio State none.
Luckily, Baylor will be playing Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl, so this
issue should also at least partially sort itself out.
Brigham Young > Utah
This
issue could not be simpler. #12 Brigham Young (10-2) defeated #10 Utah
(10-3) 26-17, and they should therefore be ranked higher. But this is not the only problem with Utah's ranking...
Oklahoma
Ranked where they
are now, at #10, Utah has a ridiculous 3 "upset" losses to lower-ranked teams. If
you move them back behind BYU, where they belong, Utah has 2 upset
losses, which is obviously better, but it is still problematic. #14
Oklahoma, for example, has no upset losses, and so they have a relevant
record that is effectively 2 games better than that of Utah. I think they should therefore be rated higher than Utah.
Of
course, if Oklahoma loses to Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, then we will
know that they belong behind Utah, so this issue could sort itself out
too.
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, as well as the other 3 ranked ACC teams, were an issue for me last week. I'll just repeat what I wrote then: 11-2 Pittsburgh is highly overrated at #13, and in fact I
think that all 4 of the ACC teams that appear in the rankings this week
are overrated. The ACC is currently a very pathetic 34-20 against
nonconference opponents, so let's just keep that in mind when assessing
teams from the conference.
In the particular case of Pittsburgh, they have 2 upset losses to
unranked teams (Western Michigan and Miami-Florida), so they have a
worse relevant record
than do a
bunch of teams ranked behind them,
including Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. I think that Arkansas
and Texas A&M should be moved ahead of all 4 of the ranked ACC
teams (the SEC was 48-8 against nonconference opponents).
Louisiana
12-1
Louisiana is even more overrated than Pittsburgh is, and the poll voters were really impressed by their 8-point win over an unrated team this week, moving them up 5 spots to #16. Here's what I wrote about them last week, when they were rated #21: Their loss came by 20 points
to 5-7 Texas, and I'm not sure that they should even be rated ahead of
the
Longhorns. Their schedule has been lousy, offering them little chance to
prove much of anything, and their performance has been consistently putrid. They've won 7 games by a touchdown or less,
mostly against terrible Sun Belt teams (and one FCS opponent).
And since they are playing 7-5 Marshall in their bowl game, Louisiana
looks set to finish very highly-ranked without ever having to prove the
slightest thing.
Purdue and Wisconsin > Iowa
I discussed this head-to-head issue last week.
8-4 Wisconsin
beat 10-3 Iowa (#17) 27-7, 8-4 Purdue beat them 24-7, and both teams
should be
ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes. Those scores are just not close, and Iowa
looks even worse now that they've been blasted 42-3 by Michigan this
week.
Let's
look at this in more detail, starting with Wisconsin vs. Iowa. Again,
Wisconsin crushed Iowa 27-7. Wisconsin did take upset losses to Penn
State
and Minnesota, both of whom Iowa defeated, but Wisconsin beat Purdue,
whom Iowa lost to. This leaves Wisconsin and Iowa with the same relevant record,
but Wisconsin owns
the head-to-head tiebreaker (and by
a dominating score). Wisconsin has 1 more loss than Iowa does because
they played #5 Notre Dame in nonconference play (Iowa did not face a
ranked nonconference opponent). Obviously, that game should be
irrelevant when comparing Wisconsin to Iowa.
Purdue vs. Iowa is even clearer. Again, Purdue crushed Iowa 24-7.
Purdue did take one upset loss (to 8-4 Minnesota), but they also own a
huge upset win over #11 Michigan State, who is ranked higher than Iowa.
So Purdue has a relevant record that is effectively one game better
than
that of Iowa. Like Wisconsin, Purdue took a 4th loss because they
played #5 Notre Dame, and again, Iowa played no ranked nonconference
opponent, so that Purdue loss should be disregarded when comparing
Purdue to Iowa.
Purdue vs. Wisconsin
Last week, I wrote that since 8-4 Wisconsin has beaten 8-4 Purdue 30-13
this season, Wisconsin should be rated ahead of Purdue. However, I had
not looked at the teams carefully in comparison to one another, as
neither team was (or is) rated by the AP poll, but this week I did look
more closely at the 2 teams, and Purdue has the better relevant record,
and should therefore be rated higher. Again, Wisconsin has 2 upset
losses (Penn State and Minnesota), while Purdue has 1 (Minnesota).
Wisconsin's head-to-head win over Purdue would make the 2 teams
effectively even, but Purdue owns the big upset win over #11 Michigan
State, giving them a relevant record that is effectively 1 game better
than that of Wisconsin for the season as a whole.
So these 3 teams should be ranked like so: Purdue > Wisconsin > Iowa.
Clemson > Wake Forest > North Carolina State
The
real problem here is 9-3 North Carolina State, who is way overrated at
#18. But let's start with the fact that at the least, they should be
rated behind Wake Forest. Sitting right behind NC State in the AP poll
are #19 Clemson (9-3) and #20 Wake Forest (10-3), but these 3 teams
should be rated like this in relation to one another:
Clemson > Wake Forest > North Carolina State. They defeated each
other in a circle, Clemson stomping Wake Forest 48-27, Wake beating NC
State 45-42, and NC State beating Clemson 27-21 in overtime. Notice
that of those wins, Clemson's is the strongest, and NC State's is the
weakest. Most importantly, outside of this circle of wins, Clemson took
no upset losses (their other 2 losses came to #3 Georgia and #13
Pittsburgh), Wake Forest took 1 upset loss (to UNC), and NC State took
2 "upset" losses (to Mississippi State and Miami-Florida). So Clemson
had the best relevant record of the 3, followed by Wake Forest, and NC State had the worst relevant record.
But
North Carolina State's problem goes deeper than that, because I don't
even see a good reason for them to be rated higher than 7-5 Mississippi
State, who beat them 24-10. As such, NC State doesn't even belong in
the top 25 at all.
Houston
Although #21 Houston (11-2) dropped 5 slots this week, I still think they are overrated, given that they've taken a loss to unranked 6-6
Texas Tech, and they have not beaten a ranked or nearly-ranked team.
They have done nothing to merit a top 25 slot.
Texas-San Antonio
#24
Texas-San Antonio (12-1) is the least deserving team in the AP poll's
top 25. Their loss came just at the end of November, by 22 points to
6-6 North Texas. Like Louisiana, their performance has been
consistently terrible, with 6 close wins over unranked opponents, but
while Louisiana at least owns a pair of wins over #32 Appalachian
State, UTSA has not beaten a team that is close to ranked, or even
close to close to being ranked.
Mississippi State and Tennessee > Kentucky
#25
Kentucky (9-3) should definitely not be
ranked. They lost 31-17 at 7-5 Mississippi State and 45-42 to 7-5
Tennessee at home, and I don't see any good reason they should be rated
ahead of either team.
Furthermore, Kentucky has not beaten a single
FBS team with a winning record, and they have posted half a dozen poor
performances, including a 5 point win over an FCS team.
San Diego State > Utah State
These
teams sit outside the AP poll's top 25, but I thought I should touch on
this case anyway. I know that Utah State (#26, 10-3) just belted San
Diego State (#28, 11-2) 46-13 in the MWC title game, but San Diego
State should nevertheless be ranked higher because they have a better relevant record
(as well as straight record), rendering them 1 game better than Utah
State for the season as a whole. The CFP committee got this one right.
The
big difference maker here is that San Diego State owns a huge upset win
over #10 Utah, while Utah State has not beaten a ranked team.
Penn State
I covered this issue last week: As implied above, I think that 8-4 Wisconsin and 8-4 Purdue should be
ranked, and both ahead of 10-3 Iowa. Well, there's another unranked Big 10
team that I think ought to be ranked, and that team is 7-5 Penn State.
Penn State has taken one upset loss, to Illinois, but their other 4
losses have come to teams ranked #2, #7, #11, and #17.
Their performance has been very strong, as their losses have been
close, and their wins have largely been dominating. Their best wins
have come over Wisconsin, who I think should be rated, and 6-6 Auburn,
who I think should be close. I'd rate PSU right behind Iowa, who edged them 23-20 at home this season.
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