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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2013 Season

January 2, 2014

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the BCS National Championship game, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. Most teams have now finished their seasons, and with 4 days to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at the contenders and get it right. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Florida State 13-0	TBD (vs #2 Auburn)
2) Auburn 12-1	TBD (vs #1 Florida State)
3) Alabama 11-1	TBD (vs #11 Oklahoma)
4) Michigan State 13-1	Beat #5 Stanford 24-20
5) Stanford 11-3	Lost to #4 Michigan State 24-20
6) Baylor 11-2	Lost to #15 Central Florida 52-42
7) Ohio State 12-1	TBD (vs #12 Clemson)
8) South Carolina 11-2	Beat #19 Wisconsin 34-24
9) Missouri 11-2	TBD (vs #13 Oklahoma State)
10) Oregon 11-2	Beat 8-5 Texas 30-7
11) Oklahoma 10-2	TBD (vs #3 Alabama)
12) Clemson 10-2	TBD (vs #7 Ohio State)
13) Oklahoma State 10-2	TBD (vs #9 Missouri)
14) Louisiana State 10-3	Beat 8-5 Iowa 21-14
15) Central Florida 12-1	Beat #6 Baylor 52-42
16) Arizona State 10-4	Lost to 8-5 Texas Tech 37-23
17) UCLA 10-3	Beat 8-5 Virginia Tech 42-12
18) Louisville 12-1	Beat 9-4 Miami-Florida 36-9
19) Wisconsin 9-4	Lost to #8 South Carolina 34-24
20) Texas A&M 9-4	Beat #22 Duke 52-48
21) Fresno State 11-2	Lost to 10-4 Southern Cal 45-20
22) Duke 10-4	Lost to #20 Texas A&M 52-48
23) Georgia 8-5	Lost to 9-4 Nebraska 24-19
24) Northern Illinois 12-2	Lost to 9-5 Utah State 21-14
25) Notre Dame 9-4	Beat 6-7 Rutgers 29-16

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Southern Cal 9-4	Beat #21 Fresno State 45-20
Iowa 8-5	Lost to #14 Louisiana State 21-14
Miami (Florida) 9-4	Lost to #18 Louisville 36-9
Vanderbilt 8-4	TBD (vs 7-5 Houston)
Texas 8-5	Lost to #10 Oregon 30-7
Cincinnati 9-4	Lost to 7-6 North Carolina 39-17
Bowling Green 10-4	Lost to 7-6 Pittsburgh 30-27
Washington 9-4	Beat 8-5 Brigham Young 31-16
Rice 10-4	Lost to 7-6 Mississippi State 44-7
North Dakota State 14-0 FCS	TBD (vs 13-2 Towson)
Minnesota 8-5	Lost to 7-6 Syracuse 21-17

Remember That Stanford Won the PAC 12

#5 Stanford lost their bowl game and fell to 11-3, while #10 Oregon won their bowl game to improve to 11-2, so there is a good chance, judging by past AP polls, that Oregon will pass up Stanford in the final AP poll this year. This should not happen. Stanford beat Oregon, and went on to win the PAC 12. They have a worse record than Oregon now because they played #4 Michigan State in their bowl game, while Oregon played unranked Texas in theirs. Needless to say, those bowl results are irrelevant when comparing these two teams to one another.

Notre Dame, Arizona State, and Southern Cal

9-4 Notre Dame beat 10-4 Arizona State, who beat 9-4 Wisconsin and 10-4 Southern Cal, so remember that these teams should be ranked as such:

Notre Dame > Arizona State > Southern Cal and Wisconsin.

As for Southern Cal vs Wisconsin, both teams took an upset loss to an unranked team, but Southern Cal's came early in the season, and Wisconsin's came late. More importantly, USC has an upset win over 11-3 Stanford, while Wisconsin has not beaten a ranked team. So USC > Wisconsin.

Teams That Should Not Be Ranked in the Top 25

The following teams should not be ranked in the final top 25: 11-2 Fresno State (#21), 10-4 Duke (#22), 12-2 Northern Illinois (#24), and 9-4 Nebraska (unranked, no poll points). I would mention 8-5 Georgia (#23), but at 8-5, and after their bowl loss to Nebraska, they will certainly not be ranked anyway. The other currently ranked teams I listed, on the other hand, have strong enough looking straight records that voters may rank them regardless of their poor bowl results (and poor season results in general).

Fresno State

As I have said repeatedly already, Fresno State has not played like a top 25 team all year. They have not played a currently rated team, and they just got routed by Southern Cal 45-20 in their bowl game. At least USC will be rated in the final poll, giving Fresno State one rated opponent. Fresno State has repeatedly just gotten by unrated opponent after unrated opponent, and they were drubbed by 6-6 San Jose State to cap their regular season.

Duke

Duke has not beaten a rated opponent, and they've lost to 2 unrated opponents. They played great in their bowl game, albeit in a losing effort to #20 Texas A&M, and that plus their 10 wins plus the fact that Duke's rise has been a great story this season could keep Duke in the bottom of the final top 25. But alas, great story or not, they do not belong there, because other candidates accomplished more than they did.

For example, take 8-5 Mississippi. Yes, Mississippi has one more loss than does Duke, but they played a far, far tougher schedule (SEC currently 5-1 in bowl games, ACC 3-6). What matters is that Mississippi has taken just one loss to currently unrated opponents, while Duke has lost to 2 such opponents. And Mississippi defeated 10-3 Louisiana State, while Duke has not beaten a rated opponent. Mississippi has also performed better than Duke, with 2 close wins over unrated opponents to Duke's 4. And Mississippi just beat Georgia Tech 25-17 in their bowl game, and GT beat Duke 38-14 this season. And finally, it's great that Duke almost beat Texas A&M, but Mississippi did the same, losing to the Aggies 41-38 in the final minute earlier this season. It is simply no contest: Mississippi > Duke.

Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois, of course, has dropped their last 2 games, both to unrated opponents (Bowling Green in the MAC title game and Utah State in their bowl game). Definitely not top 25 material.

Nebraska

Nebraska is a "name team," they're 9-4, and they beat a rated "name" team (#23 Georgia, now 8-5) in their bowl game, so the Huskers could squeak into the final top 25. But they shouldn't. In fact, Nebraska should not even be rated higher than 8-5 Iowa, who romped Nebraska 38-17 in their regular season finale. Iowa ended with one more loss because they played #14 LSU in their bowl game. Nebraska has 2 losses to unrated teams, and with Georgia falling out of the final top 25, Nebraska will have no wins over rated teams. They should not be ranked.

Teams That Could and Should Be Ranked in the Top 25

10-4 Southern Cal wiped out #21 Fresno State 45-20 in their bowl game, and they were just outside the last AP poll, at #26, so they will certainly be ranked in the final poll. That leaves three more places to be filled (because #21 Fresno State, #22 Duke, #23 Georgia, and #24 Northern Illinois should not be ranked).

Washington

First up is 9-4 Washington, who I've been saying repeatedly is underrated. They were way back at #33 in the last AP poll. All 4 of their losses have come to currently rated teams, and they have beaten 5 bowl qualifiers, all by more than a touchdown (average margin of victory in those games 23 points). They beat 8-5 Brigham Young 31-16 in their bowl game. Compare them to 10-4 Southern Cal. Both have 4 losses. Southern Cal has a 20-17 upset win over 11-3 Stanford, who beat Washington 31-28, but USC lost 10-7 to 6-7 Washington State, whom Washington beat 27-17. The teams are even. But we can separate them by performance.

USC has 2 close wins over unrated opponents, while all of Washington's wins came by more than a touchdown. The teams have played 8 common opponents, which is a lot for good comparison, and USC beat those teams by a total of 34 points, while Washington beat those teams by a total of 104 points. So Washington should be rated higher than Southern Cal.

Mississippi and Vanderbilt

I already compared 8-5 Mississippi to 10-4 Duke above. With one upset loss (to 7-6 Mississippi State) and one upset win (over 10-3 LSU), Mississippi has a better argument for being rated than any of the teams I'm saying should be kicked out.

8-4 Vanderbilt still has a bowl game to played against 7-5 Houston. If they win that game to go to 9-4, they may end up ranked, but Mississippi beat them, and Ole Miss should therefore be ranked ahead of Vanderbilt in the final poll. Still, Vandy makes a fine option for #25, assuming that Ole Miss is #24. Vanderbilt's other losses all came to currently rated teams. If Vanderbilt loses to Houston, then 8-5 Georgia makes a better candidate for #25. Yes, they lost to Nebraska in their bowl game, but they also have 2 wins over rated teams this season (11-2 South Carolina and 10-3 LSU).

Arizona

8-5 Arizona is another candidate to be rated, and could be rated higher or lower than the SEC teams I just mentioned. It's just a matter of preference. Arizona is similar to Mississippi: same straight record, and they took one loss to an unrated team (6-7 Washington State), and they have one upset win over a rated team (11-2 Oregon). Their other losses came to teams that are rated or that should be rated (such as Washington and Southern Cal). They won their bowl game 42-19 over 7-6 Boston College.

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