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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 1, 2013

1) Florida State 12-0
2) Ohio State 12-0
3) Auburn 11-1
4) Alabama 11-1
5) Missouri 11-1
6) Oklahoma State 10-1
7) Stanford 10-2
8) South Carolina 10-2
9) Baylor 10-1
10) Michigan State 11-1
11) Arizona State 10-2
12) Oregon 10-2
13) Clemson 10-2
14) Louisiana State 9-3
15) Central Florida 10-1
16) Northern Illinois 12-0
17) UCLA 9-3
18) Oklahoma 9-2
19) Louisville 10-1
20) Duke 10-2
21) Wisconsin 9-3
22) Texas A&M 8-4
23) Texas 8-3
24) Fresno State 10-1
25) Georgia 8-4

Others Receiving Votes
Cincinnati 9-2
Southern Cal 9-4
Miami (Florida) 9-3
Notre Dame 8-4
Iowa 8-4
Vanderbilt 8-4
Washington 8-4
Minnesota 8-4
North Dakota State 11-0 (FCS)

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, Georgia is currently rated #25 and Louisiana State is #14, and I think Georgia should be rated higher than LSU (details later in this article). However, depending on the bowl matchups, LSU could end up beating a top 10 team in their bowl, while Georgia could lose to an unrated opponent. If that happens, then the AP voters will have been proven right. So I'll just wait for all the dust to clear before I fix the final post-bowl AP poll.

But while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Arizona State and Michigan State

11-1 Michigan State (#10) obviously has a better straight record than 10-2 Arizona State (#11), which is why they are ranked higher. But they shouldn't be ranked higher. Both of these teams lost a close game to unrated Notre Dame, so they are even in that regard. But Arizona State's other loss came at #7 Stanford. Since Stanford is rated higher than Michigan State, this loss is irrelevant when comparing ASU to MSU. Forget their straight records-- these teams have the same relevant record: one loss to a lower-rated team.

To rate these teams relative to one another, we need to look at their wins, and that is where ASU has a clear advantage. ASU has defeated the AP poll's own #17 and #21 teams, whereas Michigan State has not beaten a team ranked by the AP poll. And ASU has beaten 8 teams that have qualified for bowls, MSU 4-- half as many! ASU certainly looks to have accomplished far more than MSU.

On the other hand, if Michigan State wins the Big 10 title game and ASU loses the PAC 12 title game, then the AP poll voters will have been proven right. We shall see.

Georgia and Louisiana State

Here's another case of the AP poll voters relying too heavily on simple straight records to rate teams, but it is a much more extreme case. 8-4 Georgia is rated way back at #25, while 9-3 Louisiana State is rated way up at #14, even though Georgia beat LSU. Now, you may be saying, "Yeah, but LSU has the better record." But this is because Georgia played a tougher schedule-- and the fact is that Georgia has the better relevant record.

Each of these teams lost to 1 unrated opponent (Georgia at Vanderbilt and LSU at Mississippi), and each of them defeated a top 10 team (Georgia over South Carolina and LSU over Auburn). The difference between these teams is that Georgia played #12 Clemson as a nonconference opponent, while LSU did not even play a winning nonconference opponent (Georgia also played 7-5 Georgia Tech). Since Clemson is rated higher than LSU, that loss is irrelevant when comparing Georgia to LSU. If Georgia had played nobodies in nonconference play, like LSU did, they would be 9-3, just like LSU is.

The AP poll's reliance on straight records to rate teams ends up rewarding teams for playing cupcake schedules and punishing them for playing tougher schedules. It should not be that way. Georgia beat LSU on the field of play, giving them a relevant record that is effectively one game better than LSU's (since they are effectively equal aside from that game), and Georgia should therefore be rated higher than LSU.

Of course, as I said earlier, maybe the bowl games will prove the AP poll voters right here.

Louisville and Oklahoma

The AP poll has a tendency to overrate "Little Big Teams" with nice-looking straight records, but in Louisville's case, the AP poll may be underrating a Little Big Team. That's been rare over the last decade or so. 10-1 Louisville is rated #18, 9-2 Oklahoma #17. Obviously Louisville has a better straight record than does Oklahoma. But they also have a better relevant record, since Oklahoma lost to a lower-rated team (36-20 to #23 Texas), whereas Louisville's only loss came to #15 Central Florida, who is rated higher than Oklahoma.

I suppose you could argue that Oklahoma has played a tougher schedule, but looking at the Big 12 this year, it couldn't have been much tougher. Certainly not tougher enough to excuse the fact that Oklahoma took an upset loss and Louisville didn't.

But this problem will take care of itself, because if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State next Saturday, they'll have proven their higher rating correct, and if they lose, they'll drop behind Louisville anyway.

Overrated: Duke, Texas, Fresno State, and Cincinnati

These teams are highly dubious as top 25 contenders.

Duke

10-2 Duke is a great story and all, but are they the #20 team in the land? Duke has not played a single team that is currently rated in the AP poll. Which means that both of their losses have come to unrated opponents. And in their last 2 games, they barely got past a poor Wake Forest and a poor North Carolina.

If Duke upsets #1 Florida State on Saturday, the AP poll voters will have been proven correct here, but if, as expected, Duke gets stomped, they'll likely fall out of the top 25, where they belong.

The real problem is that if Duke gets matched up with a weak opponent in their bowl game, they could finish 11-3, and would almost certainly be ranked in the final poll without ever proving anything. Here's hoping they draw a ranked opponent in their bowl game, so they at least get a chance to prove their mettle.

Texas

9-3 Texas (#23) did beat #18 Oklahoma 36-20, so they have that impressive win going for them, but they've also been routed by 2 unrated teams. Frankly, Texas should not be ranked ahead of 7-5 Mississippi, one of the unrated teams that routed them.

But this one will take care of itself one way or the other too, as Texas is playing at #9 Baylor this week.

Fresno State

10-1 Fresno State (#24) has not played a rated opponent, or even one of the "others receiving votes." They've had close game after close game over this schedule of nobodies, including a 42-37 win over 1-11 Hawaii, and in their regular season finale, they lost 62-52 to San Jose State. This team should definitely not be rated.

Cincinnati

9-2 Cincinnati is sitting at #26, first in line in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of the AP poll. Like Fresno State, they have not played a rated or near-rated opponent, and they've lost 26-20 to 2-9 South Florida and 45-17 to 4-8 Illinois. That is ugly! But Cincinnati will get their chance to show something this week, as they are visiting #19 Louisville on Thursday night.

However, even if they win, it doesn't show that much. Louisville hasn't beaten a rated team either. And Cinci would still have the 2 ugly losses on the ledger. There are better teams than Cinci to consider for the top 25...

Underrated: Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Southern Cal, and Washington

And here we have one team that is underrated, and 3 teams that aren't rated at all, but probably should be.

Texas A&M

#22 Texas A&M is the highest rated 8-4 team, but I think they are still a bit underrated here. Their 4 losses have come to teams that the AP poll ranks #3, #4, #5, and #14, and all 3 losses to the top 5 teams they've played have been by a touchdown or less. A&M hasn't beaten any rated teams, but then, neither, for example, has #18 Oklahoma, and unlike A&M, Oklahoma has taken an upset loss to a lower-ranked team.

Notre Dame and Southern Cal

9-4 Southern Cal (#27) and 8-4 Notre Dame (#29) both look like top 25 material to me. Southern Cal has taken a loss to an unrated team (6-6 Washington State), but they balanced that out with a huge win over #7 Stanford. No team currently rated #15-25 has beaten so highly a ranked team. Notre Dame has been much more erratic, taking upset losses to 2 unrated teams (7-5 Michigan and 6-6 Pittsburgh), but they balanced those losses out with 2 huge wins over #10 Michigan State and #11 Arizona State (who routed Southern Cal).

But there's another issue here. Notre Dame beat Southern Cal this year, and should be rated ahead of them. Please look at these teams' schedules a little more closely when rating them, sportswriters!

Washington

8-4 Washington is way back at #32 right now, woefully underrated. Like #23 Texas A&M, all 4 of their losses have come to highly rated teams: #7, #11, #12, and #17. They've beaten 4 bowl qualifiers, all by more than a touchdown (average score in those games 41-16). This is probably the most underrated team in the country (by the AP poll at least-- power rating computer systems consistently rank them in the top 25).

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